The first round of the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff concludes on Saturday night in Columbus where the Ohio State Buckeyes will play host to the Tennessee Volunteers in what has a chance to be the most exciting matchup of the weekend.
This game will resemble an old-school showdown predicated on defense and running the football and I’ve got a few Tennesee vs. Ohio State player props to match.
Here are my college football picks for this CFP first-round matchup.
Tennessee vs Ohio State props for the CFP First Round
Judkins u54.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Sampson o84.5 rush yds + anytime TD (+138 at BetMGM)- Iamaleava o18.5 rush yds (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-20
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tennessee vs Ohio State player props
Prop bet #1: Quinshon Judkins Under 54.5 Rushing Yards
Ohio State’s offense is at its best when both of its stud running backs, Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson are rolling. Unfortunately for Buckeyes, that hasn’t been the case for them in their biggest games this season, particularly when it comes to Judkins.
Judkins coming to Columbus from Mississippi was one of the biggest and most shocking moves in college football last offseason and gave Ohio State arguably the best running back room in the country.
But splitting time with Henderson meant fewer carries, a lot fewer carries in fact. Judkins averaged 272.5 carries in his first two seasons at Mississippi and carried the ball just 147 times this season. He ended with 805 yards and 5.5 yards per carry.
Now, some might say he’s fresh for the playoffs, but it looked like he could just never find his rhythm and he seemed to struggle in Big Ten play. He totaled just 337 yards at 3.9 yards per carry over his final seven games.
Oregon held him to 223 yards on 11 carries. It was more of the same against Nebraska, carrying 10 times for 23 yards. Indiana, it was 14 for 26 yards and in the season finale against Michigan, he went for 46 on 12 carries.
The Tennessee Volunteers might be the best run defense he has seen all season. The Volunteers rank first in both defense success rate vs the rush and opponent EPA per rush while ranking first overall in defensive success rate.
It has been tough sledding for Judkins in the biggest matchups and it has been Henderson who has been more reliable in big games. We could see more of the same in this first-round matchup. Let's take the Under 54.5 rushing yards for Judkins, a number he has played below in five of his last seven games.
Prop bet #2: Dylan Sampson Over 84.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime TD SGP
One running back in this game who has shown up all season long is Tennessee’s Dylan Sampson. Sampson has been overlooked this season due to Ashton Jeanty’s season but you can make the case that the Vols’ back has been just as impressive considering the competition he faced along the way.
Sampson finished the season rushing for 1,485 yards at a clip of 5.4 yards per carry, hitting the century mark for rushing yards in 10 of his 12 games played this season. The two times he didn’t he went for 92 against a very good Oklahoma defense, and he went for 77 in basically one half vs. UTEP.
That means he topped 100 yards against the likes of Georgia, Alabama, and Kentucky. All great run defenses. And while the Buckeyes are another great run D when you look at the numbers, they have had some issues limiting opposing running backs in their two losses this season.
Oregon back James Jordan rushed the ball 23 times for 115 yards in the Buckeyes’ meeting with the Ducks back in October. And more recently, Michigan back Kalel Mullings churned out 116 yards on 32 carries and a score.
If Sampson gets anywhere near his rushing total in this one, the odds are pretty good that he’s going to find the end zone. This is something he has done 22 times this season and in all but one game.
So, let’s combine the two and do a mini same-game parlay. Take the Over 84.5 rushing yards and an anytime touchdown for a nice little plus-money payout.
Prop bet #3: Nico Iamaleava Over 18.5 Rushing Yards
Dylan Sampson isn’t the only Tennessee Volunteers player I like to use their legs in this College Football Playoff matchup. This time I am of course talking about quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
Nico and the Tennessee offense got off to a flying start this season before getting derailed at the start of SEC play. But the Vols sophomore signal caller quietly had a solid second half of the season, throwing for 1,292 yards with 12 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions over his final six games which included a win over Alabama.
Something that Nico did a little more consistently over that stretch was make opposing teams respect his running ability as well. Iamaleava rushed 45 times during that period for 176 yards. That’s an average of 29.3 yards per game.
His rushing total prop for this matchup against Ohio State is sitting at 18.5. That’s a number he’s gone Over in four of those six games, landing exactly on 18 in another.
Nico using his legs is another way to keep an aggressive Buckeyes pass rush honest. I like him to go Over this modest number in what should be a tightly contested game, where extending plays and creating on the fly will be a big deal.
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