The Houston Cougars were always expected to be bad this season. Their offense, in particular, was long anticipated to be a weakness. But this level of struggle is a bit of a surprise, a surprise that the TCU Horned Frogs will gladly take advantage of in Fort Worth tonight.
My Houston vs. TCU predictions will focus on continuing to doubt the Cougars’ offense. All free college football picks should do that before kickoff at 7:30 ET on Friday, October 4.
Houston vs TCU prediction
My best bet
Houston team total Under 16.5 points (+110 at BetMGM) 
Picks made at time of writing, may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The worry for Willie Fritz as he took over this roster was just how much offensive turnover there was. Houston needed to replace four starting offensive linemen from last season, as well as its top two receivers. The latter concern was less of a fret for Fritz, but to some degree, it made the coming troubles worse.
Fritz is stubborn in some ways. Even when he has a strong team, he commits himself to the running game to the point that it can be worrying. Tulane had a strong passing game last year, one ranked No. 34 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Meanwhile, the Green Wave had a failing rushing game, ranking No. 105 in the country in EPA per rush and No. 89 in rushing success rate. Yet, Tulane ran the ball 2.9% more often than the average team would in a given game state.
Fritz should have focused on the pass, but that's not his way of coaching.
That stubbornness was always going to be a problem with this Cougars’ roster, one devoid of notable rushing assets. Unsurprisingly, Houston ranks No. 114 in EPA per rush and No. 126 in rushing success rate. Frustratingly, the Cougars rank No. 107 in how often they rush, doing so 6.7% more often than expected, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
That is the illness. Houston’s worst offensive symptoms are its inability to create quality drives, doing so on only 17.5% of possessions, worst in the country, and scoring a laughable 1.77 points per quality drive, No. 132 in the country.
Those symptoms and that illness are why the Cougars haven't scored in their last two games and have managed just 19 points total against the four best defenses they faced, excluding Rice and its No. 108 defense in current SP+ ratings.
Houston vs TCU same-game parlay (SGP)
Houston team total Under 16.5
Under 51.5
TCU -15.5
As bad as Houston’s offense is, it makes TCU look like a juggernaut. The truth, though, is that the Horned Frogs are only good offensively, not great. And it may take great to propel this game past 51 points if all the Cougars can be counted on for is single digits.
That latter thought is not hyperbolic. TCU’s defense is a few notches better than UNLV’s and Cincinnati’s, two teams that combined to hold Houston to seven total points, the best comparisons for what may come Friday night.
Fritz is a defense-first coach, and he will scheme his way away from an absolute rout. That is part of why he insists on running the ball, to shorten the game. So the Houston Frogs will fall short of cracking open a 40 on their own, though even just 20 points might cover this spread for TCU.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Houston vs TCU odds
Houston vs TCU live odds
Houston vs TCU opening odds
- Houston vs. TCU spread: TCU -17
- Houston vs. TCU moneyline: Houston +550, TCU -800
- Houston vs. TCU Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Houston vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
- TCU opened as a 17-point favorite on Sunday, and this line has moved toward Houston by the hook, as foolish as that would otherwise seem. Some sportsbooks have considered moving further, only to snap back to -16.5.
- The total opened at 52.5 at the earliest Sunday market, quickly falling to 49.5. On Tuesday, it ticked back up to 50.5 and then 51.5.
- The total moving up while the spread remained steady should be seen as faith in TCU, given all five of Houston’s games this season have gone Under their totals and by an average of 16.9 points.
Houston vs TCU betting trend to know
The Cougars have fallen short of their team total in three of five games this season, the two exceptions being by a hook against Oklahoma and in a rout of woebegone Rice. Find more college football betting trends for Houston vs TCU.
Houston vs TCU game info
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 10-4, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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