The Indiana Hoosiers open their season with a familiar opponent with a game already under its belt: the Illinois Fighting Illini.
The Illini opened the season last weekend with an emphatic 38-6 win over Wyoming. Indiana will be looking to rebound from its most disappointing campaign under Tom Allen, which saw them go 2-10.
Who will win this conference battle? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Illinois on Friday, September 2.
Illinois vs Indiana odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread in this matchup opened up with Indiana as a 3-point favorite. However, bettors have quickly jumped on the other side, and the Hoosiers are now just 1-point favorites. The total opened at 46.5 and has since dipped to 45.5 with some signals— given the money splits— that it may fall more.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Illinois vs Indiana predictions
- Prediction: Indiana ML (-130)
- Prediction: Over 45 (-115)
- Best bet: Devito Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110)
Predictions made on 9/1/2022 at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Illinois vs Indiana game info
• Location: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, IN
• Date: Friday, September 2, 2022
• Kick-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX Sports 1
Illinois vs Indiana betting preview
Weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Key injuries
Illinois: Josh McCray RB (Out), Donovan Leary QB (Out).
Indiana: DJ Matthews Jr. WR (Probable).
Find our latest College football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1 in Indiana's last nine home games against a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for Illinois vs. Indiana.
Illinois vs Indiana picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
I think a large part of the action we've seen in this one is based on last weekend.
However, I'm unsure how much stock you can put in that. There's a high chance that Wyoming will be a lousy football team. Given its departures, its outlook wasn't positive before the season, and last weekend did nothing to alleviate those concerns. That said, I'll be backing the Hoosiers, and I believe this is an ideal buy-low spot.
Both of these teams have a host of offensive questions. Indiana is a true mystery. They'll open the season with first-year coordinators, on both sides of the ball. But I like that aspect here from a pure angle of the unknown. Illinois has put a game on film — Indiana has not. That can be a dangerous proposition to back, but it's one I'm willing to do for this slight home favorite.
I expect Indiana to sell out on the run and make life hard for Illinois. Syracuse QB transfer Tommy DeVito still has to show me he can do it for the Illini. He was impressive against Wyoming, but his career numbers for Syracuse still ask plenty of questions. Indiana has multiple high-level transfers in players like DE Myles Jackson from UCLA and tackle LeDarrius Cox to dominate the point of attack, and that's where this game will be won. Its defense ranked slightly below average in explosiveness allowed last season, which will improve. Along with that, they'll be facing an offense that ranked a putrid 120th in explosiveness, and I'm not sure they've done enough to improve on that side of the ball.
The story of this game is simple: it comes down to who will dominate the line of scrimmage. One team arrives in this conference matchup with a revamped offensive line that has to replace four starters. The other comes with two Power Five transfers in the backfield from Auburn and North Carolina and an experienced offensive line. I don't think points will be easy for either team here. Both have multiple questions, and it's challenging to identify who will answer them. However, we're backing the side we expect to win in the trenches.
Prediction: Indiana moneyline (-130 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
This game figures to be a grinder, but this total is just a bit too low for a game this early in this season.
For starters, consider the trends in favor.
The Over is 8-1 in Indiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is hitting at a 59% clip in the first five weeks of the season in college football games with a total of 46 or lower.
Illinois brings in offensive coordinator Tony Peterson from UTSA, who wants to run a high-tempo offense. UTSA was 30th in plays per game a season ago and 25th the year before that. So, there are offensive questions for the Illini, but I'm not sure the pace at which they want to proceed is fully factored in here.
Indiana figures a heavy run-based offense, which could be an issue for Illinois. They were ninth in the Big 10 a season ago in rushing yards allowed, and I expect the Indiana backfield to be able to take advantage of that. This Illinois defense could be talented, but they are young. And again, Indiana will benefit from not putting a game on tape. It may be difficult for them to know exactly what to expect when the Hoosiers offense takes the field.
This won't be pretty, but I'm backing the trends and the general unexpected aspect that Indiana's offense can provide. Give me the Over.
Prediction: Over 45 (-115 at Circa)
Best bet
What does the combination of a team dominating the offensive line and selling out for the run open up? A chance for a mobile Quarterback to make plays with his legs. I'm backing Illinois Quarterback Tommy DeVito to do precisely that.
In three starts last season for Syracuse, DeVito rushed for over this total in each of them. Those included a 49 outburst against Ohio in his previous start for the Orange. In over half of their games a season ago, Indiana allowed quarterbacks to rush for over this total.
This number is just a bit too low for me. Like Indiana, we're not exactly sure what the Illinois offense will look like this season. That opens the possibility of them doing enough to get DeVito over his rushing total.
Tommy DeVito prop pick: Over 12.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Illinois vs. Indiana picks, you could win $53.15 on a $10 bet?
Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
