FOX Friday Night Football Player Props & Best Bets: Illinois vs Nebraska

Prop bet #1: Kaden Feagin Under 52.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

This number is seemingly mispriced. Kaden Feagin has rushed for 40 and 25 yards in the last two weeks against Kansas and Central Michigan, respectively, averaging 2.6 yards per rush against a middling rush defense and an outright bad one, again respectively. To be blunt: not respectfully, only respectively.

Setting this prop so high suggests a stubborn Illinois game plan more than anything else. And the Illini would need to be stubborn to rush against Nebraska, the No. 5 rush defense in terms of expected points added (EPA) per rush against, according to cfb graphs via collegefootballinsiders.

Some of those Nebraska numbers were certainly boosted by facing Colorado’s wet paper bag of an offensive line. However, costing teams a fifth of a point in EPA per average rushing attempt lies outside any small sample size worries.

Illinois’ rush offense is far from good enough to justify challenging that, which should deprive Feagin of the opportunities to set a new season high in rushing yards against an FBS opponent.

Prop bet #2: Dante Dowdell Over 50.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

Again, this number seems to be mispriced. Dowdell has rushed for 55 or more yards in all three games this season, averaging 5.94 ypc. He had two games with only single-digit attempts, a byproduct of Nebraska relishing a stocked depth chart at running back, but he never gained fewer than 55 yards.

Setting this prop so low suggests the Cornhuskers may abandon the run entirely against the Illini more than anything else.

And Nebraska absolutely should not abandon the run at all against Illinois — the No. 101 EPA rush defense in the country — one prone to allowing explosive plays. Dowdell isn't afraid to break loose with explosive rushes, the exact way he got to 55 yards despite having just eight carries against UTEP and merely six against Northern Iowa last week.

Some of the Huskers’ rushing success has come because those rush defenses are so porous, but Illinois’ is just as bad. This weeknight game should feature a bevy of Nebraska run plays.

Prop bet #3: Dylan Raiola Under 212.5 passing yards

Best odds: -115 at BetMGM

Dylan Raiola has begun his college career spectacularly, averaging 223.3 passing yards per game and completing an absurd 73.8% of them. He looks every part of the recruit Georgia once so sought.

But he doesn't need to shine to trounce Illinois, certainly not when the Illini pass defense has been, thus far, stout. It limits big plays and excels most on early-down passing attempts.

Fading Raiola here isn't doubt in him. It's instead trusting in Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule to take the prudent approach and run the ball over and over and over again against Illinois.

Furthermore — and this veers a bit from the props intention of this article — the market may be overvaluing the Illini. This spread of +7.5 or +8 is giving Illinois too much credit.

The Cornhuskers shouldn't need to worry much at home against the Illini, and keeping the playcalls rather vanilla could come in handy as October nears. Three straight games against Rutgers, at Indiana and at Ohio State will eventually test Nebraska. Hiding some of Raiola’s talent until then could behoove longer-term plans.