In what’s essentially a play-in game for the Big Ten Championship, two Top 5 teams face off in Columbus as Indiana heads to The Horseshoe to take on Ohio State
In our Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions, we’re expecting a close and low-scoring game game between two of the most well-rounded teams in the country.
Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, November 23.
Indiana vs Ohio State predictions
Early spread lean
Indiana +12.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While Indiana hasn’t really played a high-quality opponent this season, the Hoosiers have still handled business against every team on their schedule.
How much can you blame a team for not having a stronger schedule when they clearly look like one of the best teams in the country every Saturday? That’s why I’m slightly surprised that the Ohio State Buckeyes are favored by so much.
Ohio State has trounced its last two opponents — Purdue and Northwestern — but those are Big Ten bottom feeders. In their previous three games before those cakewalks, Ryan Day’s team only outscored Oregon, Nebraska, and Penn State 72-62.
Obviously, it’s a bit of a leap to assume the Hoosiers are comparable to Oregon and Penn State, but they’re certainly better than the Cornhuskers team that only lost by four to the Buckeyes in Columbus.
Remember, Curt Cignetti didn’t just inherit Tom Allen’s roster and get lucky with a weaker schedule. He reloaded this Indiana team with transfers that will likely be playing on Sunday’s next year.
Ohio transfer Kurtis Rourke is one of the best QBs in the country and has Indiana ranked No. 2 in EPA per dropback on offense. Wake Forest transfer Justice Ellison and James Madison transfer Ty Son Lawton are a top running back tandem and have the Hoosiers sitting No. 7 in EPA per rush.
I’m not expecting them to light up Ohio State’s defense by any means, but I do think they can score enough to lose by fewer than 13 points. And this line could move further in the Buckeyes' direction too — Ohio State opened -11.
And defensively Indiana has the ability to slow the Buckeyes at a similar level to what Nebraska did — the Hoosiers are 12th in SP+ on defense while the Cornhuskers are 14th.
Indiana is among the best teams ATS this season at 8-2 and I only see the Buckeyes winning this one 27-20.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It makes sense why this game total is 52.5, both teams have talented QBs with NFL futures on top of having multiple running backs to lean on and explosive pass catchers.
With that said, it’s a slightly higher game total than I would have expected — I was thinking closer to 50.5 — and I’m happily taking the Under on this number.
Ohio State is 6-4 betting the Under this season and has been even better as of late. The Buckeyes have hit the Under in six of their last seven games and that includes five with the game total set below 50.
For as talented as Rourke and Co. are, they haven’t faced a front seven like this one. Ohio State is No. 1 in SP+ on defense and ranks No. 4 in EPA per rush and No. 2 in EPA per dropback.
The defensive line of J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, and Tyleik Williams is one of the most disruptive in the country and should consistently apply pressure on Rourke. And we saw him struggle at times against Michigan’s D-line that’s full of future NFL players.
At the same time, Indiana has the talent to slow Ohio State enough to avoid a blowout loss. The Hoosiers are top 20 in both EPA per rush and dropback on defense thanks to players like Mikail Kamara and D’Angelo Ponds.
Kamara could really be the key too. He leads the country in pressures (53), per PFF, and Ohio State is still working with a banged-up offensive line that’s missing potential first-round pick Josh Simmons at left tackle.
Against comparable defenses like Penn State and Nebraska, Ohio State averaged just 20.5 points per game. The Hoosiers should limit them to fewer than 30, and that should be enough for the Under to hit.
Indiana vs Ohio State live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
