The James Madison Dukes continue to be one of the best stories in college football for the past couple of seasons. The Dukes' first season in the FBS saw them go 8-3 and have followed that up by starting a perfect 6-0 this year.
This week, they’ll try to make it seven straight when they visit the Marshall Thundering Herd in tonight's Sun Belt battle. Can the Dukes stay undefeated, cover the spread as short road favorites, and hand the Herd their first home loss of the season in one fell swoop?
I break down the college football odds and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for James Madison vs. Marshall on October 19.
James Madison vs Marshall best odds
James Madison vs Marshall picks and predictions
James Madison has rolled to six consecutive wins to start the season with an average margin of victory of 9.2 points when facing FBS opponents and has covered four straight spreads to boot. JMU has been able to rattle off those wins thanks to its quarterback play and stingy run defense.
Under center for the Dukes is Jordan McCloud. The redshirt senior is powering a JMU offense that is putting up 34.5 points per game. McCloud has thrown for 1,419 yards with 14 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions.
Meanwhile, that JMU rush defense is putting up some stunning numbers. The Dukes are allowing just 1.7 yards per carry and 39 rushing yards per game. Both rank first in the nation when facing FBS opponents.
At a glance, this just doesn’t look like a good matchup for Marshall.
The Herd enter this game at 4-2 SU but the schedule hasn’t been all that daunting. They are coming off their first conference game, which was a 41-24 beatdown handed to them by Georgia State and unfortunately, a bounce back here will be tough.
That’s partly because the Herd’s offense is predicated on the run game and feeding star back Rasheen Ali the ball. Don’t be shocked if the Dukes sell out to stop Ali and force QB Cam Fancher to try and beat them through the air. His numbers have been OK to this point, but has thrown almost as many interceptions (five) as touchdowns (seven). And the Dukes are coming off a game where they shut down a pass-happy Georgia Southern team.
Additionally, when you look at Marshall’s defensive stats, you’ll see some good numbers against the pass. However, that’s mostly because it’s the Herd who are getting trampled on the ground this season. Marshall ranks 130th in the country in opponent yards per rush vs. FBS opponents allowing teams to rumble for more than six yards per carry.
McCloud and running back Kaelon Black will use their legs to wear out this Marshall defense which will then open things up for JMU in the passing game. And the way to beat the Dukes is with the deep ball, which the Herd aren’t set up to do.
Like I said, despite a short spread this is just a tough stylistic matchup for Marshall. I’m betting on James Madison staying perfect and covering the spread in the process.
My best bet: James Madison -3.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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James Madison vs Marshall same-game parlay
As always, the same-game parlay for this matchup starts with my best bet, which is James Madison -3.5.
Jordan McCloud could be in for a big game, but not necessarily through the air. The best way to attack this Marshall defense is on the ground. McCloud is a dual-threat quarterback who has rushed for 128 yards and two scores already this season. I think part of the JMU game plan will be for McCloud to not only tuck it and run when he sees daylight but also a few more designed runs for him in this matchup. I like him to find the end zone here so am adding McCloud to score an anytime touchdown.
More on that JMU game plan. I really expect the Dukes to try and take advantage of that porous Marshall run defense. That means running the ball more and moving the clock more. I also expect JMU to be leading this game which should also mean more running, and in turn, fewer passes from McCloud. So, I’m closing this SGP out with the Under 236.5 on his passing yard total.
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James Madison vs Marshall spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Marshall as a 4-point home underdog and despite James Madison’s stellar play this season, it’s the Herd who have seen the early money, dropping the line to 3.5 as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Herd will get some love here because they are at home on a short week. But this Marshall team doesn’t have the defense it once had to slow down this JMU offense. The Dukes are balanced enough to take advantage of the Herd’s flaws and should take care of business here.
When it comes to the total, the number hit the board at 52. But that number was short-lived as early bettors hammered the Under, moving the number down to 49.5. Some 50 have started to pop back up.
The Herd need to run the ball. But it will be slow going against this Dukes defense. While JMU will run the ball more than normal in this one. With the clock constantly running the Under looks like the lean here.
James Madison vs Marshall betting trend to know
James Madison has cashed the moneyline in all last five games vs. FBS opponents this season for +5.25 units. Find more college football betting trends for James Madison vs Marshall.
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James Madison vs Marshall game info
Location: | Joan C. Edwards Stadium, Huntington, WV |
Date: | Thursday, October 19, 2023 |
Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
TV: | ESPN |
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