Very few people saw the Kansas Jayhawks putting together this kind of start to the season. After a last-place finish in the Big 12 a season ago, where they won just two games, the Jayhawks have already matched that total and have scored a combined 111 points in their first two contests.
Now they hit the road to face a Houston Cougars team that, if nothing else, has been involved in must-watch games this season. Both of their first two contests featured multiple overtimes, and now come home hoping to win a game in regulation and see improvement in their offensive play.
This game will feature plenty of playmakers, and should be another entertaining contest. Let’s go over your best betting opportunity in our Kansas vs Houston college football picks and predictions for Saturday, September 17.
Kansas vs Houston best odds
Kansas vs Houston picks and predictions
After a last-place finish in the Big 12 a season ago where they won just two games, the Jayhawks are off to an absurd start. The 56-10 win over Tennessee Tech can be brushed aside given the opponent, but their 55-42 overtime win at West Virginia last week made many take notice.
Devin Neal has carried the ball just 14 times this season, but he’s taken four of those into the endzone, with his five total touchdowns tied for the most this season. He and fellow back Daniel Hishaw Jr have carried just 29 times through two games, but they’re averaging nearly nine yards per carry. Quarterback Jalon Daniels has added 114 yards of his own on 15 carries, and threw three touchdown passes with no turnovers against the Mountaineers.
Much of Kansas’ success has boiled down to not making mistakes. While it’s turned the ball over four times so far, it’s committing few penalties and has yet to allow a sack — although that will likely change this weekend against a Houston team that recorded six of them last week against Texas Tech.
That said, their success thus far might be built on a house of cards. Kansas has converted an astonishing 74% of its third-down attempts this season, in large part due to the running game giving it short-yardage downs. Houston has allowed conversions on just 10 of 30 attempts, and is allowing just 3.12 yards rushing per carry. Aside from a 19-yard run, the Cougars held Tahj Brooks in check last weekend. Their pass defense has been horrid, however, and has been a major weakness, which has negated their success against the run.
Given how outside the norm some of their metrics are, it’s hard to get a real read on Kansas in regards to the spread or the moneyline. Thankfully, your best bet for this game has to do with neither.
Tahj Brooks showed last week that Houston’s defensive line can be run on if teams commit to the ground game, and the Cougars have played two straight road games that have featured a total of five overtimes. Their run defense showed cracks in the fourth quarter as they wore down, and if Neal gets into the open field, it’s all over for the defense. Look for him to find paydirt yet again on Saturday.
My best bet: Devin Neal to score anytime (-115 at FanDuel)
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Kansas vs Houston betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
After opening as a nearly -400 favorite at most books, the public has bet the line down about 100 points, as they jumped on Kansas getting more than 10 points. Houston is still favored to win by well over a touchdown, despite needing overtime to beat UTSA and falling by three to Texas Tech.
Kansas is unbeaten through two games, but they trailed 28-14 last weekend to West Virginia before rallying with three consecutive touchdowns. It then proceeded to blow an 11-point lead over the final five minutes as the Mountaineers forced overtime.
The outcome of this game will likely depend on the matchup between Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels and the defensive line of Houston. Derek Parish set an AAC record with four and a half sacks last weekend, as the Cougars racked up six as a team. They also forced three interceptions in large part due to their pressure.
But it still wasn’t enough to stop Donovan Smith from throwing for 350 yards, and his 27-yard run to open the final drive of regulation was key in the Red Raiders forcing overtime. If the Jayhawks can continue to protect Daniels, and if he’s able to make plays with his legs against Houston’s defense, they will have a strong chance to spring the upset.
Over/Under analysis
The total has dropped nearly five points from when it opened last weekend at 62.5, and with good reason. Houston’s offense has struggled to fire on all cylinders this season, for multiple reasons. One of the biggest has been their lack of discipline, with 12 penalties for 126 yards last week as they have now been flagged at least 10 times in both games.
They’re also dealing with an anemic run game that has averaged just 3.07 yards per carry, and shows just how badly they’re missing running back Alton McCaskill IV. With 73 rushing attempts through two games, only two of the 68 teams with more attempts are averaging fewer yards per carry. Kansas could be just the team for them to get going against, as they rank 75th in the country in EPA rush defense so far.
The total will likely hinge on how well Kansas is able to run the football. If Houston is able to contain the run game enough to force long drives, the total will likely stay Under. However, if Kansas is able to bust off the big runs they have this season, Houston will have to take to the air and the score could shoot up fairly quickly. Personally, the concerns for both defenses make the Over fairly appealing to me, but I can understand why the total continues to drop.
Kansas vs Houston game info
• Location: John O'Quinn Field at TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPNU
Kansas vs Houston key injuries
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Kansas vs Houston weather
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Kansas vs Houston betting trend to know
Kansas has covered the spread in each of its last five games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas vs. Houston.
