Louisville vs Florida State Player Props for ACC Championship: Rushing to the Window

Prop bet #1: Lead the way, Trey

The conversation surrounding this game over the last 24 hours has been about who will start at QB for Florida State. 

Heisman Candidate Jordan Travis had a tragic ending to his season with a severe leg injury a few weeks ago against North Alabama. That thrusted Tate Rodemaker into the starting role, and he performed impressively in a win against Florida. But after taking a big hit against the Gators last week, he has entered the concussion protocol, which has left his status for this one up in the air. 

No matter the scenario under center, the Noles will lean on its running game, and guess what? Trey Benson is going to get his.

Louisville's rushing defense has had some impressive stretches throughout the season, and its numbers are good overall. However, over the last month, it's faltered down the stretch. It started against Virginia when their QB, Anthony Colandrea, gashed them for 89 yards, which started a stretch of games where Louisville would struggle. Miami's Mark Fletcher gashed them for 126 yards on the ground, and then arch-rival Kentucky's Ray Davis got them a week later, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Benson will get the volume in this one with the questions under center, and he's getting a matchup against a team that has finished the season limping.

Trey Benson prop: Alt rushing yards — 100+ (+116 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Sir Isaac

Louisville's premier man in the backfield, Jawhar Jordan, has not been himself over the last few weeks. The first-team All-ACC man has been dealing with nagging lower body injuries that have gone primarily undisclosed and remain evident to the naked eye. 

Enter Wisconsin transfer, Isaac Guerendo.

The tailback has impressed over the back half of the season in the wake of Jordan not being 100%. Over the last four games, Guerendo has averaged 96.7 rushing yards. The first four games of the season? That number was 35.5. Gurendo's volume speaks to both Jordan's nagging injuries and his performance. I like backing him to hit the in-zone in the second half because value is presented using common sense. 

For starters, the data has shown us that Louisville likes to use the bigger back more later in the game to apply the body blows to the opposing defense. Secondly, Jordan's injury or injuries should hamper him more as the game goes on, and, in turn, Gurendo's volume should go up, giving him more chances to hit paydirt. Just last week, he saw nine of his 13 carries come in the second half. I'd expect a similar scenario against Florida State – a rushing defense that has been just above average on the season.

Isaac Guerendo prop: Second half TD (+350 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Everyone's having fun

By now, you're sensing a theme. These teams will want to run the football, and both have their reasons. 

Questions abound for each QB, which will lend itself to neither coach trusting their signal caller, particularly in goal-line situations. There's also the aspect of the weather. We expect heavy rain throughout the day and scattered showers throughout the game in Charlotte, North Carolina. That means conditions may not be favorable for tossing around with an inexperienced thrower on one side and one who has shown he's capable of making the big bad mistake once in a while on the other.

This is simply a play on game theory. Both teams should look across the field and see a defense they can get after on the ground. We've already mentioned Louisville's struggles in this area over the last few weeks. Still, on the other hand, the Cards have seen better rushing defenses than the Noles (ranking 64th in success rate) and delivered solid performances.

It isn't easy to calculate a genuinely fair price on this, but a look back at each team's games reveals that it has happened a combined four times or just over 16% of the time. This one is priced at a probability of around 10%. Why not?

Team Special prop: 1 rushing TD in every quarter (+850 at FanDuel)