It has been a rough introduction to the Big Ten for the UCLA Bruins thus far, and it only gets tougher on Sunday when they travel across the country to take on the undefeated Penn State Nittany Lions in Happy Valley.
Find out why my UCLA vs. Penn State predictions expect the Bruins to find only more trouble, as I serve up my best college football picks for Week 6 on Saturday, October 5.
UCLA vs Penn State prediction
My best bet
Under 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The UCLA Bruins kicked off their first-ever Big Ten game three weeks ago at home against Indiana and it was ugly for the Bruins. The Hoosiers won 42-13 in a complete mismatch from start to finish. UCLA’s second Big Teb game was last week against another newbie in the Oregon Ducks. Oregon won that game 34-13 in Los Angeles.
Now, the Bruins must travel across the country for their first road game in the conference. Not only are they traveling far, but it is also a noon game — 9 am Pacific — and they have to face one of the best teams in the country. Penn State will be lying in wait ready to feast on the Bruins.
The Penn State Nittany Lions are a perfect 4-0 and are coming off a huge win over Illinois, 21-7. The Nittany Lions' defense allowed an early touchdown but then did not allow a single point for the final 54 minutes of the game. That is not unusual for this Penn State defense, as they only allow 11.5 points per contest — ranked seventh nationally.
The UCLA offense ranks 127th in total yards, 132nd in rushing yards, 123rd in third down conversions, and 112th in completion percentage. On top of that, they have only converted three of their 10 red zone possessions into touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Penn State defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed, 7th in rushing yards allowed, 31st in third-down defense, and has only allowed four touchdowns in nine opponent red zone possessions.
With no run game and very little efficiency in the passing offense, there is just no way the Bruins are going to be able to score on this vaunted defense. On the other side, Penn State does not like to run up the score and play fast on offense. This game should stay Under as long as the Nittany Lions do not score on defense or get extremely short fields due to turnovers.
UCLA vs Penn State same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 46.5
Tyler Warren anytime touchdown
UCLA team total Under 7.5
To combine with the Under, I am going to play an alternate team total Under for the Bruins. They have scored double digits in every game this season, but they are about to face a whole new beast on defense this week. UCLA may get either a one-off touchdown or a couple of field goals, so we will play it at 7.5.
Finally, I will look to Drew Allar’s favorite target on Penn State to score, and that is tight end Tyler Warren. He has 20 catches this season thus far and two of those were for touchdowns. I like his odds of getting number three on Saturday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs Penn State odds
UCLA vs Penn State live odds
UCLA vs Penn State opening odds
- UCLA vs. Penn State spread: Penn State -27.5
- UCLA vs. Penn State moneyline: UCLA +1,800 | Penn State -5,000
- UCLA vs. Penn State Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
UCLA vs Penn State spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread opened at Penn State -27.5 and even though it has slightly moved throughout the week, it has landed back at 27.5 as of Thursday night.
- UCLA has covered both of their spreads of 20+ point underdogs and that was in the last two games they played.
- The total opened as low as 45.5 and has moved as high as 47.5 before landing at 46.5 as of Thursday night.
- Six of the eight games these two teams have played this season have gone Under the total.
UCLA vs Penn State betting trend to know
UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games and Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in seven of their last 12 games. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs. Penn State.
UCLA vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
UCLA vs Penn State latest injuries
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