After playing its first conference game in the Big Ten against old Pac-12 rival UCLA last week, Oregon welcomes its first new conference foe to Autzen Stadium with Michigan State heading to Eugene in Week 6.
In my Michigan State vs. Oregon predictions, I expect the Ducks to handle business at home against a struggling Spartans squad.
Read more in our college football picks for Saturday, October 5.
Michigan State vs Oregon predictions
Early spread lean
Oregon -24.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It hasn't been as dominant a start to the season as most Oregon fans had hoped, but the Ducks are firmly in College Football Playoff position heading into their Week 6 matchup with Michigan State.
Coming off back-to-back Power 4 wins where Dan Lanning’s defense looked a whole lot better, the Spartans could be in for a rough afternoon at Autzen Stadium.
Clearly, Michigan State is still a few years away from being able to compete with the Big Ten’s best under new head coach Jonathan Smith.
The Spartans are coming off a 38-7 loss to Ohio State where they only mustered up 246 total yards and turned the ball over three times.
I think their road trip to the West Coast could end with a similar outcome. The Ducks’ defensive line is loaded with NFL talent like Jordan Burch, Matayo Uiagalelei, and Derrick Harmon.
They should be capable of pressuring QB Aidan Chiles and forcing him into mistakes. The Oregon State transfer leads the Power 4 in turnover-worthy plays (15), per PFF.
With Chiles and this offense consistently struggling to move the ball against quality defenses, I think they’d be lucky to come away with more than 13 points.
That means worst case, Oregon would need to put up 38 to cover the spread, which the Ducks are entirely capable of with the efficiency this offense has shown in recent weeks.
Oregon’s fourth in the country in SP+ on offense and Dillon Gabriel seems to get better with each start for the Ducks. He leads the country in adjusted completion rate (88.7%) and has just two turnover-worthy plays this season.
With the offensive line looking stronger after a slow start, Gabriel should have plenty of time to find Tez Johnson or Traeshon Holden for big plays. And the running game might be even better with Jordan James ranking 16th in the country in 10-plus-yard runs (14).
Even if Oregon’s offense gets off to an iffy start, Michigan State just doesn’t have the offensive talent to take advantage.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 52.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Michigan State’s offense has been among the worst in the Power 4 this season. It ranks 104th in points per game (21.8) and Chiles has more interceptions (8) than touchdown passes (5).
This offense doesn't have a reliable passing attack, which is great news for the Under. With Oregon expected to blow the Spartans out, there’s not a ton of concern for garbage time points from Michigan State.
With Chiles under center, the Spartans are just 98th in EPA per drop back, and the Ducks should expose him. Oregon is eighth in the country in EPA per dropback on defense and has a top-tier cornerback in Jabbar Muhammad capable of keeping freshman phenom Nick Marsh contained.
Chiles’ struggles are a big reason why Michigan State would rather run the ball, which keeps that clock churning and helps this Under. And though MSU is more effective on the ground, Oregon is holding opponents to just 112 rushing yards per game behind a defense that’s 32nd in SP+.
Shockingly, Michigan State’s defense actually rates better, sitting 22nd in SP+. Which is why I’m not fearful of Oregon putting up a 50-burger.
In fact, the Ducks are only scoring 36 per game thus far, and will likely hover around there in this matchup. While they are fifth in EPA per rush on offense, the Spartans are only allowing 114.4 yards per game and rank 20th in EPA per rush on defense.
It also helps that Oregon will likely get up early and just look to win the time of possession battle and drain the clock. I’m expecting a 38-10 win for the Ducks.
Michigan State vs Oregon live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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