Coming off an impressive win over USC, the Michigan Wolverines now has its sights set on a lackluster Minnesota Golden Gophers program.
With the defenses being the better units on both teams, I'm expecting Michigan's run game to be the difference in my Minnesota vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Minnesota vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Michigan -10.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
It’s been an ugly start to the season for the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Golden Gophers are 2-2 but scored just 17 in a loss to a North Carolina team that gave up 70 to James Madison.
Their other Power Four game? A 31-14 loss to an Iowa program that’s a lesser version of this Michigan Wolverines team.
Like the Hawkeyes, the Wolverines want to run the ball down their opponent's throat and play physical defense. Well, that approach seems to work well given Iowa ran for 272 yards on the Golden Gophers.
Even with a nearly non-existent passing attack, Michigan is 12th in EPA per rush on offense. With Alex Orji at QB, it’s only opened up the ground game, as the dual-threat quarterback was key to the Wolverines rushing for 290 yards in their 27-24 win over USC.
Between Orji, Kalel Mullings, and Donovan Edwards, Michigan should be able to create explosive plays on the ground against a Minnesota defense that’s 85th in EPA per rush.
And Michigan probably only needs to score about 21 points to cover this spread if we’re being honest. Minnesota’s offense has been one of the worst in the Power 4 this season.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines’ fifth-ranked defense is loaded with NFL talent, particularly on its defensive line. Josiah Stewart, Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, and Derrick Moore have already combined for 40 pressures this season, while top draft prospect Will Johnson remains a lockdown corner.
If Minnesota scores more than 10 points, that’s a win in itself.
Minnesota vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Michigan -10.5
Under 34.5
Alex Orji 40+ rushing yards
It certainly helps that Michigan’s offense is built to run the clock, and frankly, it can barely throw the ball. And for as inconsistent as this Minnesota team is, it does rank 17th in SP+ on defense and 14th in EPA per dropback.
That lends to the Under cashing in a game that may resemble something closer to a plodding rugby match than a football game.
Going hand in hand with the Wolverines covering and the Under hitting is Orji utilizing his legs. In his lone start against USC, he ran for more yards (43) than he threw for (32). Expect a similar output from the athletic marvel in this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Minnesota vs Michigan odds
Minnesota vs Michigan live odds
Minnesota vs Michigan opening odds
- Minnesota vs. Michigan spread: Michigan -10.5
- Minnesota vs. Michigan moneyline: Minnesota 340, Michigan -450
- Minnesota vs. Michigan Over/Under: 39.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Minnesota vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
- Michigan has covered the spread in nine of its last 14 games (+3.55 Units / 23% ROI).
- The Over/Under opened as high as 39.5 and has since dropped down to 34.5.
- Both the Wolverines and Golden Gophers are 2-2 to the O/U this season.
Minnesota vs Michigan betting trend to know
Minnesota has hit the game total Under in two of its last three away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Minnesota vs Michigan.
Minnesota vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-28, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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