Mississippi vs Arkansas Prediction and Picks: Hogs Hang Tough

The Mississippi Rebels spent big dollars in the transfer portal in an attempt to win the SEC now that Nick Saban had moved on to greener pastures. But with two losses heading into a Week 10 matchup against the Arkansas Razorbacks, the Rebels' margin for error is razor-thin and the Hogs have been playing everyone tough.

My Mississippi vs. Arkansas predictions explain why we have another SEC game with a total that’s too high. Check out my best college football picks for this important SEC showdown.

Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. ET from Razorback Stadium in Fayetteville, with the game airing on ESPN.

Mississippi vs Arkansas prediction and best bet

My best bet
Under 54.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

This is not the season Lane Kiffin envisioned at the start of the year as the two-loss Mississippi Rebels can’t afford another defeat and still have Georgia on the schedule.

The biggest problem is that Mississippi’s offense has struggled in SEC play. The Rebels haven’t scored more than 27 points in four conference games. 

Quarterback Jaxson Dart’s play has been a little underwhelming. He is completing just 62% of his passes and has thrown just three touchdowns in four SEC matchups. It hasn’t helped that stud wide receiver Tre Harris is hurt and whose status for this game against the Arkansas Razorbacks is still up in the air. 

The rushing game has also stalled once the competition got tougher. Mississippi is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry in SEC play. 

Now, Mississippi will head on the road to Fayetteville where it hasn’t won since 2008, going against what is a solid Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks have limited Auburn, Tennessee, and Texas A&M to 21 points or fewer.

Arkansas is tough against the run, ranking 38th in success rate while also holding opposing QBs to 233 yards or fewer in four of five SEC games, including matchups against Garrett Nussmeier, and Nico Iamaleava. 

Meanwhile, Taylen Green and the Razorbacks’ offense has looked great against bad teams but has struggled a little more against good ones. And before the 54-point outburst last game against SEC basement dweller Mississippi State, the Razorbacks were averaging 17.5 points over the last four SEC games.

And while Mississippi has had issues with its offense, the defense has been a real strength. Led by a fierce defensive line, the Rebels rank first in the country in defensive success rate. 

Because of this, both of these teams have been Under machines. Mississippi has cashed the Under in seven straight games while the Under is 4-1 in Arkansas’ five SEC games. The total for this matchup is too high so I like this trend to continue.

Mississippi vs Arkansas same-game parlay (SGP)

Under 54.5

Henry Parish Jr. anytime TD

Andrew Armstrong antime TD

+775 at BetMGM

Let’s try to mess with the same-game parlay by adding a of couple anytime touchdown scorers to a SGP with an Under, starting with Mississippi running back Henry Parish Jr.

Parish hasn’t been the most effective back recently, but the Rebels have still leaned on him in the red zone. Parrish has found the end zone at least once in six of Mississippi’s last seven games. 

For Arkansas, let’s go with someone who may be due to find the end zone. I’m talking about wide-out Andrew Armstong. He is the Hogs' leading wideout and Green’s favorite target by a wide margin with 49 receptions and 722 yards.

Yet he has only found the end zone once this season. I like the odds he busts out of the slump and scores.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Mississippi vs Arkansas odds

Mississippi vs Arkansas live odds

Mississippi vs Arkansas opening odds

• Mississippi vs. Arkansas spread: Arkansas +6.5
• Mississippi vs. Arkansas moneyline: Mississippi -230, Arkansas +190
• Mississippi vs. Arkansas Over/Under: 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Mississippi vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis

• Arkansas opened this SEC matchup as 6.5-point home underdogs and Mississippi has seen the majority of the action to this point, with the line sitting at 7.5 as of Friday evening.
• Arkansas has been one of the better bets in the country this season at 6-2 ATS and is 4-1 ATS as underdogs, while Mississippi has covered just one of four SEC conference games this season.
• The total hit the board at 56.5 and bettors have hit the Under, dropping the number down two points.
• The first-half Under 26.5 also looks like a solid bet in this matchup.

Mississippi vs Arkansas betting trend to know

Mississippi has hit the Under in 9 of their last 13 games for +4.60 Units and a 32% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Arkansas.

Mississippi vs Arkansas game info

Mississippi vs Arkansas latest injuries

Mississippi vs Arkansas weather

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