Two former Big-12 rivals meet for the first time since 2011 when the Missouri Tigers of the SEC meet the Kansas State Wildcats of the Big-12 at high-noon Saturday.
Sophomore quarterback Brady Cook threw for 201 yards and a touchdown to lead Missouri to a season-opening 52-24 home victory over Louisiana Tech. Kansas State Junior running back Deuce Vaughn scampered for 126 yards and a TD in the Wildcats' 34-0 season home opener against South Dakota State.
Who will come out victorious in this non-conference matchup? Find out in my free college football picks and predictions for this Week 2 showdown between Missouri and Kansas State on Saturday, September 10.
Missouri vs Kansas State best odds
Missouri vs Kansas State picks and predictions
Look for Kansas State senior transfer QB Adrian Martinez to get things going early and often Saturday.
Martinez did it all for Nebraska, throwing for +8,400 yards and accounting for 85 TDs during his four-year career with the Cornhuskers. The 5th-year senior signal caller didn’t get off to the flying start he had hoped, so look for him to make more of an impact against the Tigers.
Sure, the Wildcats easily defeated South Dakota and Martinez did a nice job game managing, but he’ll need to do more than throw for 53 yards otherwise this contest will be much closer than it should be.
Martinez needs to get senior wide receiver Malik Knowles more involved in the offense other than handing the ball off and watching the 5th-year wideout run for the hills. Knowles is a playmaker, Martinez is a QB with a strong, accurate arm, and he’ll be looking to get Knowles going early and often.
The Tigers' secondary did pick off three passes in their win over Louisiana Tech, but the Missouri defensive line had Tech QB Matthew Downing running for his life, and that likely won’t happen as often against a more robust Kansas State offensive line.
Missouri QB Cook had a good season opener at home, throwing for 201 yards with a scoring strike and a pick. He has a couple of serious weapons in wideouts Dominic Lovett and Luther Burdon III, but the Wildcats' defense is tough with seven returning starters fresh off pitching a shutout, and Bill Snyder Family Stadium isn’t the friendliest towards their opponents.
The Tigers committed 10 penalties in their season opener, coughed up two red-zone turnovers, and failed several times to convert on third and short opportunities. These aren’t always easy fixes, and don’t bode well for Missouri this Saturday.
Finally, Kansas State has a special RB in Deuce Vaughn, and he’s coming off a 1,404-yard season and 126 rushing yards on 18 carries with a score against South Dakota. The Tigers allowed only 11 rushing yards on 22 carries in Week 1, but the Missouri defense will have trouble containing both Vaughn and Martinez.
My best bet: Kansas State first half -4.5 (-110 at Pinnacle)
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Missouri vs Kansas State betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
Kansas State opened as 8.5-point home favorites, and that number has been batted around a bit to its current -7.5 in most betting shops.
Vaughn is the real deal, and he’s up against a Tigers defense that didn’t see anything like him and Martinez last week. It will take a Herculean effort on the part of Missouri to hold those two to 11 yards like it did against Louisiana Tech.
Once the run is established, it’s onto the Martinez aerial show, and he joined this team for an opportunity to play on Sundays. Expect him to challenge the Missouri secondary with his wideouts and stack points on the board.
I don’t expect it to be a one-sided offensive affair on Saturday, but it’s reasonable to expect Kansas State to outscore its younger, less experienced opponents by at least 10 points. The Wildcats' defense will get more stops than their defensive counterparts, and K-State will ground out the clock and cover the spread.
Over/Under analysis
This contest opened at Over 55.5 and that number has risen to its current 57.5 points.
That’s too many points for this contest.
Missouri may not have an easy time stopping Martinez and the Wildcats, but it did dominate Louisiana Tech for three quarters of tackle football before allowing 14 fourth-quarter garbage time points.
The Tigers' offense had difficulties in short-yardage situations, turned the ball over twice in the red zone, and committed 10 penalties last week.
Missouri has the playmakers but shoots itself in the foot too often, and K-State will make it pay for its mistakes on both ends of the field.
Finally, the Under is 4-0 in the Tigers' last four against the Big-12, and 6-2 in the Wildcats' last eight games overall.
Missouri vs Kansas State game info
• Location: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
• Date: Saturday, September 10, 2022
• Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Missouri vs Kansas State key injuries
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Missouri vs Kansas State weather
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Missouri vs Kansas State betting trend to know
The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Missouri vs. Kansas State.
