NC State and East Carolina open their seasons with an in-state battle against one another.
We've reached another season where the Wolfpack have a lot of preseason hype. For many in the ACC media, NC State is viewed as a legitimate threat to Clemson to win the entire conference.
There is also some hype surrounding the East Carolina program. It seems to be an AAC team quietly on the rise and will be looking to build on a 7-5 season a year ago.
Can the Pirates hang around in this one to cover the spread — or pull off the upset outright? Find out in our college football picks and predictions for NC State and East Carolina.
NC State vs East Carolina odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The spread for this one opened up with NC State as a 12-point favorite and hasn't moved off of that. The total opened up at 52 and stayed the same with a slight money advantage to the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
NC State vs East Carolina predictions
Predictions made on 9/1/2022 at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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NC State vs East Carolina game info
• Location: Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, NC
• Date: Saturday, September 3, 2021
• Kick-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
NC State vs East Carolina betting preview
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Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-2 in NC State's last seven non-conference games. Find more NCAA betting trends for NC State vs. East Carolina.
NC State vs East Carolina picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
NC State enters a season with high expectations for the third straight year. This time, primarily due to multiple seniors taking advantage of the extra COVID year. The past two years have been underwhelming under Dave Doreen, without either of the prior two years reaching double-digit wins.
Therefore, I can't justify taking the Wolfpack to cover a double-digit spread, on the road, in game one.
NC State was one of the least efficient teams in the ACC on offense a year ago. Its efficiency rating — a stat that measures the rate of successful plays — sat at 40%. That offense will be left to fill some holes this season, replacing three offensive linemen and its entire backfield.
So, trusting to cover a double-digit spread out of the gates is hard. It also explains why I'm not as keen on the NC State hype as others.
That offense will be tasked with scoring regularly against an East Carolina defense that was already good a season ago and should be improved. Last year, it held opponents to less than a touchdown just over 75% of the time. That was the second in the AAC and the 33rd in the country.
The Pirates return most of their defense, outside of uber-talented All-AAC CB Ja'Quan McMillan. The rest of the secondary that intercepted 15 passes is back. The line is as good as it's been in a while, with depth and toughness returning its most notable players. It's what the Pirates have been building for a few years.
East Carolina should do a good enough job of slowing down the NC State offense to stay in the game. The question is, can the Pirates do what they want — run the ball — on offense? I believe they can. At least, I think they can do enough of it.
NC State's defense was solid a season ago, but a rash of injuries revealed what I believe it'll look more like early this year. That revelation allowed North Carolina to rush for 7.2 yards per carry to end the season. Unfortunately, it missed the entirety of its linebacking crew in those games and will be missing them again as they've departed the school.
I'm backing East Carolina to pull off the outright upset here. There is too much value on this number in a game that should be close throughout. NC State hasn't won a game in Greenville since 2007, and now it gets the most talented East Carolina team in some time.
Back the Pirates to pull it off.
Prediction: East Carolina moneyline (+350 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
Run, run, run. That's what East Carolina will want to do for many reasons. One, to keep NC State's offense off the field, and the other to impose its physical offensive line and rushing attack on the game. This means tick, tick, tick from the clock, and this game is squarely pointing to the Under.
Some of the trends agree with this side, too.
The Under is 5-1 in East Carolina's last six home games, including 4-0 to the Under in its final four overall.
The Under is also 5-2 in NC State's last seven nonconference games.
The rivalry aspect of this game also points to some close-to-the-vest play calling. I've talked a lot about East Carolina's offense. I think that's essential to this handicap because I believe it'll control large parts of the game, but let's talk about the NC State offense some.
It's difficult to pinpoint precisely what NC State's offense will look like. It lost its best receiver in Emeka Emezie, and its best running back in Donovan Knight.
The offense wasn't efficient last season, so naturally, we shouldn't expect it to be efficient out the gate. NC State ranked below average in pace last season, and no reason should change with so many moving parts.
I'll be taking the Under here, as the trends and my handicap both align with it.
Prediction: Under 51.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Best bet
We have a lovely combination to double down with the Under as my best bet.
We have an NC State offense on one side that will still be trying to figure things out. While it has an excellent signal caller in Devin Leary, the pieces around him are very much a question mark. As a result, the Wolfpack will likely be prone to some early-season mistakes on the road that stall outdrives.
On the other side, we have an offense that knows what it wants to do. It wants to run the ball even more than a season ago, which should burn the clock. That's an Under bettor's best friend.
Pick: Under 51.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
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