North Texas vs SMU Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Mustangs Defense Stands Tall

The best Group of Five team you aren’t talking about takes the field tonight when the Southern Methodist Mustangs host the North Texas Mean Green.

The Mustangs are on a roll, entering this AAC matchup as winners of five in a row. A winning streak powered by one of the best defenses in the entire country. And another win gets them one step closer to the AAC title game.

Standing in their way is North Texas. The season has not gone as planned for the Mean Green, but this team still boasts a powerful offense and has been covering a lot of spreads, so they can’t be taken lightly, even as big underdogs in college football odds.

I break down the odds and find you the best bet in my college football picks for North Texas vs. SMU on Friday, November 10.

North Texas vs SMU best odds

North Texas vs SMU picks and predictions

For my money, Southern Methodist has been one of the most impressive Group of Five teams in the country. The Mustangs enter this AAC matchup on a five-game winning streak and are 7-2 for the season, with the two losses coming against Big 12 teams (Oklahoma and TCU).

Powering this run is one of the most underrated defenses in the land. The Ponies’ stop unit is so tough because they're a veteran bunch that can do it all. Eight starters returned for 2023, meaning it was the second year in Scott Symons’ system. They can stuff the run, shut down the pass, and rush the quarterback.

SMU ranks sixth in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents, eighth in opponent yards per pass, 18th in opponent yards per rush, and seventh in sack rate. Overall, that means SMU ranks 15th in defensive success rate.

The Mustangs have been particularly dominant through their first five conference games. They’ve allowed an average of just 257.8 yards, more than 40 yards better than the next closest team.

Now, North Texas enters this game with a record of just 3-6, but the Mean Green have been a scrappy bunch thanks to its pass-happy offense. Led by quarterback Chandler Rogers, North Texas ranks 13th in passing yards per game. As a result, the Mean Green have gone 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven games.

But not everything is hunky dory with this passing attack. Despite the big yardage numbers, North Texas ranks 95th in EPA/pass. And the offensive line needs to be better, ranking 88th in sack rate. That constant pressure has led to a lot of turnovers as the Mean Green rank 101st in giveaways per game. Those are not good things to struggle with heading into a matchup with this Ponies defense. 

SMU’s offense should also have an edge vs. a struggling North Texas defense but I am still most confident in this Mustangs defense.

Prior to last week’s 36-31 win over Rice, SMU had allowed just 36 points in its four previous AAC games. And even that Rice stat line is misleading. The Mustangs allowed less than 300 yards and one of the Owls’ touchdowns came on a blocked punt.

With the North Texas offense being one-dimensional, having issues on the offensive line, and with turnovers, I find it unlikely that it goes Over its team total vs. this excellent SMU defense.

My best bet: North Texas team total Under 24.5 (-120 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

North Texas vs SMU same-game parlay

North Texas team total Under 24.5

Jaylan Knighton Over 61.5 rush yards

Jaylan Knighton first-half TD

30% boost available

+384 +499 at FanDuel

While the Mean Green might have trouble scoring in this one, things might be a little easier for the Mustangs. 

The North Texas defense is bad. Like really bad. The Mean Green rank 125th in opponent yards per play and 129th in defensive success rate. They are also getting absolutely gashed by the run game. UNT ranks dead last in rushing yards per carry and per game.

With Mustangs QB Preston Stone questionable with a head injury, SMU could lean on running back Jaylan Knighton a little more. Knighton has rushed for 511 yards at a clip of 5.4 yards per carry. This is the best matchup he's gotten all year, so let’s add the Over 61.5 yards on his rushing prop. A number he’s gone Over in four of his eight games.

And let’s round this SGP out with Knighton to find the end zone early with a first-half touchdown. He's been a consistent presence in the offense, scoring four TDs in the last five games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

North Texas vs SMU spread and Over/Under analysis

Southern Methodist opened this AAC matchup as 16-point home chalk and has been bet up slightly to -16.5 as of Wednesday night. As noted above, SMU has edges all over the field, but the status of QB Preston Stone makes things a little murkier.

Mix in a North Texas team that has performed well as an underdog, going 4-1-1 ATS when getting points this season, and that’s enough for me to stay away from the spread.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at a high 68 and the very early action has been on the Under moving the number down to 67.5. As if my best bet wasn’t enough of a hint, I’d agree with the early money here. SMU’s defense is good enough to shut down even a solid North Texas offense, and with Stone’s availability up in the air, that could make the Mustangs offense a little less potent. I’d lean Under here.

North Texas vs SMU betting trend to know

North Texas has only hit the Team Total Over once in their last three games for -1.4 units. Find more college football betting trends for North Texas vs SMU.

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