The first College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchup is set, and it’s as good as it gets as blue bloods Notre Dame and Georgia face off in the Sugar Bowl. Caesars Superdome in New Orleans plays host on Wednesday, January 1, 2025.
The Bulldogs are coming off the bye as SEC champions but will be without starting quarterback Carson Beck, while the Fighting Irish are coming off an impressive first-round win over Indiana.
My early Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions and college football picks break down this epic Sugar Bowl matchup.
Notre Dame vs Georgia predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame +1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Much is being said about the Indiana Hoosiers not deserving a spot in the College Football Playoff following Notre Dame’s 27-17 win in their first-round matchup, which was not as close as the final score indicates. But I think that is doing a disservice to Notre Dame.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are a really good football team and would have beaten almost anyone the CFP committee would have sent to South Bend. Notre Dame is now 12-1 on the season with the lone loss still a stunning 16-14 defeat to Northern Illinois all the way back in Week 2. But the Irish have won 11 in a row since, going 10-1 against the spread. Only one of those final scores was within two touchdowns.
This Notre Dame team is "old school," built on the foundation of an elite defense and a running game. But quarterback Riley Leonard has shown he can move the ball through the air when needed, and most importantly, he limits the turnovers.
Simply put, there is a reason this spread against the SEC champion Georgia Bulldogs is so short.
Speaking of the Bulldogs, it was a roller coaster year between the hedges. The Dawgs lost an early season matchup against Alabama but then rattled off four straight wins, including a 30-15 decision against then No. 1 Texas.
Another loss came a few weeks later, this time to Mississippi. But Georgia bounced back the following week by defeating Tennessee before needing a massive comeback in their regular-season finale against rival Georgia Tech. The final high was a 22-19 overtime victory in the SEC title game, defeating Texas for the second time this season.
However, they lost starting quarterback Carson Beck in the process. Backup Gunner Stockton did just enough to earn the Bulldogs the win but averaged a mere 4.4 yards per attempt and threw an interception in the win.
Stockton definitely gave the Dawgs a boost, but that was a very scripted situation, and I’m not sure how he’ll hold up against this elite Notre Dame defense.
In fact, this Irish defense is just as good if not better than the Georgia unit. With Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love, they also have the much more reliable offense heading into this matchup. I’m siding with Notre Dame early on.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 44.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
This is the bet I really like right off the bat. For starters, this is a matchup of two elite defenses.
Notre Dame’s defense is on a roll, allowing more than 17 points just twice this season. The Irish have an elite secondary that can play man-to-man on the outside, allowing defensive coordinator Al Golden to blitz at a high rate. Basically, the Irish’s defense is a big problem for opposing teams.
Notre Dame enters the Sugar Bowl ranked fourth in opponent EPA per play and eighth in defensive success rate. The Irish also lead the nation in defensive success rate on dropbacks and opponent EPA per dropback, and now they will have nearly two weeks to prepare for a backup quarterback making his first career college football start.
Starting Stockon should also mean we see Georgia get back to running the ball more, and in turn more chewing of the clock.
Meanwhile, Georgia’s defense is once again loaded with NFL talent, starting with safety Malaki Starks. As a unit they come into this game ranked 31st in success rate and 12th in opponent EPA per play, but their strength comes in the form of stopping the run.
The Bulldogs rank 24th in defensive success rate vs. the rush and eighth in opponent EPA per rush and will face a Notre Dame offense that runs the ball more than 55% of the time.
Expect both teams to remain committed to running the football even if yards are hard to come by. This will be an old-school slugfest where the battle to control the line of scrimmage will determine the outcome of the game.
Either way, don’t be surprised if both Notre Dame and Georgia grind out drives, chewing the clock, limiting possessions and resulting in an Under in the Sugar Bowl.
Notre Dame vs Georgia live odds
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