The final leg of the College Football playoff quarterfinals was pushed back a day, and the Sugar Bowl now kicks off a 4 p.m. ET today at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, broadcast on ESPN.
My Notre Dame vs. Georgia predictions expect the dominant Notre Dame Fighting Irish defense to dictate play today, despite being slight underdogs against the Georgia Bulldogs and a first-time starting quarterback.
Notre Dame vs Georgia prediction and best bet for the Sugar Bowl
- Moneyline: Notre Dame (+105)
- Spread: Notre Dame +1.5 (-115)
- Total: Under 45.5 (-115)
- Best Bet: Georgia Team Total Under 22.5 (+100)
Notre Dame vs Georgia moneyline
Notre Dame (+105 at BetMGM)
Make this game a pick’em. That is what it should be.
These two teams are within a point of each other in most advanced metrics or power rankings. The industry standard, ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings, view the Georgia Bulldogs as half a point better than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Parker Fleming’s cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com make the Irish 0.42-point favorites.
If this game should be a pick’em, then let’s take the plus-money value of the underdog.
Notre Dame actually has a higher floor than Georgia, given the Bulldogs are relying on a backup quarterback with no starting experience, but that thought will be discussed more thoroughly in the best bet below.
Notre Dame vs Georgia spread
Notre Dame +1.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Again, make this game a pick’em. And if that is the case, take the underdog.
Would there be any reason to prefer the spread to the moneyline? Very much so.
Irish head coach Marcus Freeman has shown a penchant for some aggression late in the season. That has mostly shown up in special-teams trickery, but it establishes some expectation that if Notre Dame were to be down a touchdown late and then reach the end zone, it may attempt a two-point conversion in hopes of winning without going to overtime.
That would be particularly prudent given the Irish field goal operation has been a fraught one this season. In that scenario, Notre Dame could fail the two-point conversion but still cover this +1.5 spread.
Notre Dame vs Georgia total
Under 45.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Let’s focus on Kirby Smart for a second. Trust in him is assuredly a significant part of Georgia being favored in this toss-up. Smart’s preference is well-known: He is a defense-first mind and he's won his two titles by leaning on the Bulldogs’ defense.
That said, the 2022 team was a bit different than any of the others in this four-year run. That was the one year Smart knew he could trust his offense, led by veteran and championship-winning quarterback Stetson Bennett, and analytically speaking, that was the best Georgia offense in the last four years, including this season.
In 2022’s postseason, the Bulldogs cashed three Overs.
In the other three postseasons, they have cashed four Unders in five games, including the SEC championship game three weeks ago.
Unless Smart has absolute faith in his offense, he will slow a game down and wait for his defense to capitalize. That should be his game plan this week, too, for better or for worse.
My Notre Dame vs Georgia best bet
Georgia team total Under 22.5 (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
First of all, expect Georgia Bulldogs head coach Kirby Smart to deflate the ball early. Smart will want to ease quarterback Gunner Stockton into the moment, a first-time starter as a junior.
Sure, Stockton should have a thorough understanding of the Bulldogs’ playbook, but that compliment further condemns his showing in the second half of the SEC championship game after Carson Beck suffered an elbow injury.
A heavily-scripted drive to start the second half yielded a touchdown, and then Georgia’s offense stalled under Stockton. He averaged a disastrous 4.4 yards per pass attempt. On five drives before overtime, Georgia averaged 4.49 yards per play. And, again, one of Stockton’s selling points is that he has been in this system for three years now.
If Texas’ defense is better than Notre Dame's, it is only marginally so. No one in the country has had a better pass defense this season than the Irish, ranking No. 1 in both defensive dropback success rates and expected points added (EPA) per dropback against.
It is hard to imagine Stockton finding passing success against Notre Dame. At that point, the Bulldogs should pivot into a ground-based offense, one involving Stockton as a running threat. Normally, that would make some sense and be a means toward a win or two.
But these Irish are one of the best-versed teams in the country in defending run-heavy schemes, having shut down both Army and Navy.
Georgia might win this game, but if it does, it will be on the back of its defense in an otherwise plodding game, something Smart naturally prefers, to limit Stockton’s exposure against a dangerous Notre Dame secondary.
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Notre Dame vs Georgia same-game parlay (SGP)
Georgia Team Total Under 22.5
Notre Dame moneyline
Riley Leonard anytime touchdown
If Notre Dame's defense delivers as expected, this gives the Irish some leeway in advancing to the CFP semifinals, as they are built for these types of contests.
Where does ND's offense come from? Well, I'm expecting Irish quarterback Riley Leonard to score a touchdown, which is a testament to the Bulldogs’ defense: The last three Georgia defenses have had the misfortune of following in the footsteps of that terrifying 2021 unit. None can live up to that comparison... but this is still a stout defense.
Turning to Leonard near the goal line will give Notre Dame an additional blocker. In a low-scoring game, that edge may be the difference. Not that Leonard needs much help, having rushed for 15 touchdowns this season, crossing the goal line at least once in 10 of 13 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Georgia odds
Notre Dame vs Georgia live odds
Notre Dame vs Georgia opening odds
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia spread: Georgia -1.5
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia moneyline: Notre Dame +105, Georgia -125
- Notre Dame vs. Georgia Over/Under: 44.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis
- Georgia opened as a 1.5-point favorite as Notre Dame routed Indiana in the first round of the Playoff. If scouring the odds board at that moment, a rogue book or two did post Georgia as a 1.5-point underdog.
- The spread rose to +2 for most of December, and some books considered +2.5 this week, but +1.5 has remained the consensus number.
- This total opened at a meager 44.5, in part due to Beck’s absence, and ticked up to 45.5 only on Monday, obviously a key number in this conversation.
Notre Dame vs Georgia betting trend to know
Since losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2, Notre Dame has gone 10-1 against the spread, the one ATS loss coming by just two points in a four-score win. The Irish have exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.8 points since that outright loss to the Huskies, even including the ATS loss. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Georgia.
How to watch Notre Dame vs Georgia game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-2-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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