Notre Dame vs Wisconsin Picks and Predictions: Showdown at Soldier

The Badgers get ready to fight the Irish on neutral ground at Soldier Field, as both squads look to stay inside the Top 20. Our Notre Dame vs Wisconsin picks let you know who to back in what could be a tight matchup.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Sep 24, 2021 • 12:49 ET • 4 min read
Jack Coan Notre Dame Fighting Irish college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Irish and Badgers will meet in the middle, kicking off Saturday at Soldier Field in Chicago with both looking to remain in the Top 20.

Notre Dame has struggled out of the gate this season, but it has at least avoided a loss, something Wisconsin cannot claim. The two Midwest powers will alter their early-season narratives in Chicago this weekend.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Notre Dame vs Wisconsin in Chicago on Saturday, Sept. 24, with kickoff set for 12:00 ET.

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Though the higher-ranked team, the Irish opened as 5.5-point underdogs. Quickly, that rose to 6.5 points, where it has remained for most of the week, despite some juice showing. It may drop back down to 6 before kickoff. The total began the week at the whopping number of 47.5 and then fell only downward, resting at 45 points.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin picks

Picks made on 9/24/2021 at 11:35 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Notre Dame vs Wisconsin game info

Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Date: Saturday, September 25, 2021
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Notre Dame: C’Bo Flemister RB (Questionable), Prince Kollie LB (Questionable), Michael Carmody LT (Questionable), Kurt Hinish DT (Questionable), Marist Liufau LB (Out), Shayne Simon LB (Out), Paul Moala LB (Out)
Wisconsin: Leo Chenal LB (Questionable), Jack Eschenbach TE (Questionable), Deron Harrell CB (Questionable), Aaron Witt LB (Questionable), RB Antwan Roberts (Out — Transfer Portal), Al Ashford CB (Out)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Six straight Wisconsin regular-season games have gone Under their totals, and six of their last seven games have gone Under, as have four of Notre Dame’s last seven. Find more NCAA betting trends for Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin.

Notre Dame vs Wisconsin predictions

For the Badgers to cover this spread, they would need to both overcome their natural tendencies and buck the likelihoods suggested by a game total of 45.0, all while limiting an Irish offense that has relied on explosive scoring plays (touchdowns of at least 20 yards) for 28 percent of its total offense.

Something has to give, and it is likely Wisconsin’s secondary. Penn State found holes in it, and that personnel has not changed. Notre Dame should be able to count on a big play or two, and combined with a couple drives stalling out for field goals, that should be enough to at least stay within range of the Badgers.

Across its last six regular-season games, Wisconsin has averaged 14 points. When junior quarterback Graham Mertz is clicking, more should be expected than that — his memorable debut against Illinois last year comes to mind, completing 20 of 21 passes with five touchdowns. That will not be matched against the Irish, but even if the Badgers readily exceed 14 points, Notre Dame’s M.O. this season of a couple long touchdowns plus a couple of field goals means Wisconsin may need to reach 27 to cover, nearly doubling their usual output.

This may seem to run counter to both that expected game flow and to the above trends, but it is more a reflection of how far this number has fallen. The opener of 47.5 left far more room for a few key scores to cash — 24-21, 24-23, 27-0, or even 28-17, for example. And those all feel ripe for Soldier Field.

Wisconsin has scored touchdowns on only half its red-zone possessions this season, numerous Mertz miscues dooming them against Penn State and then an interception against Eastern Michigan returned 98 yards for a touchdown (although it should be noted, thrown by Mertz’s backup). At some point, that trend should regress toward a mean, and the Badgers’ mean will be far greater than 50 percent.

Once the Badgers convert in the red zone, the low total of 45.0 will be in doubt for an Under ticket holder, especially with the Irish averaging 32.3 points per game in regulation this season. Wisconsin should be a stiffer foe than Florida State, Toledo or Purdue, but it may not be low-teens stiff.

NCAA parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Where can I bet on college football odds?

You can bet on college football odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including NCAA moneylines, spreads, Over/Under totals, and a ton of college football prop odds. Head over to our best football betting sites for the top spots to bet on college football odds in your area.

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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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