Ohio State vs Michigan Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Defense Wins Championships

The No. 2 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes head to the Big House this Saturday to take on the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines. Yes, "The Game" is finally here and this year, it may be bigger than ever.

Ohio State and Michigan both enter this matchup undefeated, and a victory in arguably college football’s greatest rivalry not only secures a spot in the Big Ten Championship but also likely punches their ticket to the College Football Playoff as well.

The Wolverines have won The Game each of the last two seasons but that was as underdogs. This time around the college football odds have them as 3.5-point home favorites. Oh, and they will be without head coach Jim Harbaugh, who will be serving the final game of his suspension from the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Can the Wolverines extend their winning streak against Ohio State, or is getting points with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Buckeyes too tempting to pass up?

I break down the betting odds for The Game and bring you the best bet in my college football picks and predictions for Ohio State vs. Michigan.

Ohio State vs Michigan best odds

Ohio State vs Michigan picks and predictions

The stakes for this year’s edition of The Game couldn’t be higher. The winner will head to the Big Ten Championship as big favorites against Iowa. and more than likely earn a spot in the College Football Playoff committee’s final four.

Mix in the trash talk from both sides and the sign-stealing scandal and the hype for this matchup has been cranked to 11. 

Both teams enter the Game with a perfect 11-0 record but Michigan is favored here because it has dominated everyone and is playing at home. That said, Ohio State's best wins have been better than Michigan’s, with a win over Notre Dame and beating Penn State in Happy Valley.

While the spread is interesting here, I’m more interested in the total. That’s because this is a matchup of two of the best defenses in college football. 

Let’s start with Michigan. Everyone expected this to be a strong unit heading into the season and they have not disappointed. The Wolverines rank fourth in opponent yards per play, second in defensive success rate, and first in scoring defense, allowing just nine points per game.

On the other side, Ohio State ranks first in opponent yards per play, sixth in defensive success rate, and second in scoring defense, giving up a shade over nine points per game.

So, there is not a lot separating these two elite units and I believe they should both have an edge against the opposing offense. 

For starters, both offensive lines have not been as dominant this season when going against strong defensive lines. And that will put pressure on both quarterbacks.

Speaking of quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy is the better of the two signal callers in this matchup. But Michigan hasn’t seemed to trust him in big spots of late. He only attempted eight passes vs. Penn State (a comparable defense) and completed just 12-of-23 passes last week vs. Maryland.

That said, I would still trust McCarthy in a big spot than Kyle McCord. Whose only strategy at this point is, just to huck it up to Marvin Harrison Jr. and pray for the best. Which isn’t a terrible strategy, to be honest, Harrisson is that good. 

On top of that, running the football will be a key for both teams. Ohio State has clearly been better when TreVeyon Henderson is healthy and rolling. And obviously, Blake Corum is the engine that makes this Michigan offense run. But both teams allow fewer than 3.5 yards per carry so it could be slow rolling.

All that has me looking at the Under. The total of 46.5 is just too high. Both Ohio State and Michigan played well below the total in their respective matchup against Penn State, another team with an elite defense, and I am betting we see a similar result here. 

The Game will be intense, close, and low-scoring. Under all day.

My best bet: Under 46.5 (-110 at FanDuel) 30% boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Ohio State vs Michigan same-game parlay

Under 46.5 points

Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 87.5 receiving yards

Blake Corum anytime TD

30% boost available

+633 at +823 FanDuel

As always, our same-game parlay kicks off with my best bet which for The Game is Under 46.5. But just because I’m betting this massive Big Ten battle will be low scoring, doesn’t mean every offensive player will be shut down.

I’m looking at you Marvin Harrison Jr. The Buckeyes’ wideout is falling back in the Heisman odds but for my money, he looks like the most impactful player on any college football field this season. His receiving yards prop is sitting at 87.5. He’s had 100 or more yards in seven of his last 10 games, including going for 162 against an elite Penn State secondary. Harrison will show up in the biggest game of the year. Take the Over.

And let’s close this SGP out with Michigan’s star running back to find the end zone. Blake Corum has scored in every game this season, including twice against that strong Penn State defense. I expect him to find the end zone at least once on Saturday.  

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio State vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis

Some sportsbooks opened The Game with Michigan as 4-point home chalk but the consensus line as of Thursday afternoon is Michigan -3.5. And I get why the Wolverines are favored here.

They are playing at The Big House and they have been the more dominant team this season. But this might be the game where they miss Jim Harbaugh. On top of that, in a matchup that looks so even, I would turn to which team can create more explosive plays. And with Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka on the outside, and TreVeyon Henderson out of the backfield, that’s the Buckeyes. I would lean toward the underdog in this one.

Meanwhile, the total hit the board at 46.5 and that’s where it remains as of writing this. I broke down why I like the Under above. But additionally, Ohio State has been an Under machine going 7-1 to the Under in its last eight games. And in Michigan’s only two games vs. good defenses (Penn State and Rutgers) they played to the Under with similar totals.

Ohio State vs Michigan betting trend to know

Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in nine of their last 13 games for +4.6 units. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Michigan.

Ohio State vs Michigan game info

Ohio State vs Michigan latest injuries

Ohio State vs Michigan weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic