Before the College Football Playoff began, betting on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to face the Ohio State Buckeyes in the national championship would have given you +1,700 in value. Suffice it to say, this was far from inevitable a month ago.
But here we are, the national championship set, and all we can do now is wait the 10 days until kickoff shortly after 7:30 ET on Monday, January 20. The Atlanta showcase may feel far off, but waiting can be productive if spent pondering bets for the 2024 season finale.
My early Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks expect a slog of a title game, one driven by two outstanding defenses.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame +9.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
First of all, if you are inclined to agree with this bet, wait before making it. How many versions of a nine-point margin can you concoct? The only one popping into my head at this point is 23-14. For the Ohio State Buckeyes to score 23 points, it would need to fail in scoring territory three times and kick three field goals. Any version of a nine-point margin comes down to that thought.
The Buckeyes rank No. 10 in the country before the Playoff semifinal victory against Texas in points per scoring opportunity at 4.45. Do not expect them to fail three times and kick three field goals.
Which is to say, waiting to bet the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at +9.5 while hoping to see a +10 become available is worth the risk of the line falling to +8.5 instead.
Now, then, why take the Irish as low as +8.5?
Because Marcus Freeman has shown us his game plan. He has shown it twice.
The third-year head coach has already faced Ohio State twice, in the 2022 season opener and in late September of 2023. Both times, Notre Dame knew it was outmatched. It knew the talent gap was significant. Everyone did.
So Freeman shortened the game. The fewer plays the Buckeyes ran, the fewer chances their star receivers had to break loose. The fewer plays the Irish ran, the fewer chances their quarterbacks had to make mistakes.
And it largely worked. Notre Dame was within one possession of Ohio State to start Freeman's head-coaching career until the Buckeyes dictated the fourth quarter with a 14-play, 95-yard, seven-minute touchdown drive to stake a 21-10 lead. Ohio State wore down Notre Dame, a 15-point underdog.
In South Bend a year later, the Irish led late before the last second saw a Buckeyes' touchdown run, in some part courtesy of a Notre Dame defensive linemen not taking the field. Ohio State ran the ball right where that 11th defender should have been and still barely got across the goal line.
That 17-14 Irish loss was a massive blemish on Freeman's tenure because of that 10-man defense mistake, but it is still worth noting Notre Dame covered the spread as a 3.5-point underdog.
Pick your metric and the Irish are closer to the Buckeyes now, certainly closer than they were to open the 2022 season. That 15-point spread aside, ESPN.com's preseason SP+ numbers considered Ohio State to be 6.7 points better, and those put too much stock into Notre Dame, evident a week later when the Irish lost to Marshall.
Heading into the semifinals, SP+ numbers considered Ohio State to be 5.4 points better, and those may not be putting enough stock into Notre Dame, not after it found a way through a myriad of injuries to beat Penn State. A 10-day layoff may help those injuries more than realized.
Freeman's strategy kept the Irish within a score of Ohio State twice before, 2022's final score inflated by that fourth-quarter Buckeyes' dominance. Notre Dame is closer to Ohio State's level nowadays, so that same strategy should again make this a one-score game with at least an Irish chance late.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Do not wait to bet this. If the total slips below 45, you will have missed a key number.
Again, Marcus Freeman has shown us his likely strategy. But set that aside and think about these two defenses for a moment.
In terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap against, they are the top-two defenses in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. SP+ knocks Notre Dame's defense down to No. 4, with Ohio State at No. 1.
Most pertinently, though, the Irish pass defense has yet to be beaten this season. Northern Illinois caught Notre Dame asleep early with two chunk passing plays, and that has been about it for success for anyone in that regard.
Louisville averaged three yards fewer per attempt than it did the rest of the season when it played the Irish. USC put up yardage and was then undone by two pick-6s. Indiana accomplished nothing offensively until garbage time glossed up its box score.
Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton averaged 5.39 yards per pass attempt once, removing an early 67-yard completion. And Penn State did not complete a single pass to a receiver.
Now, Ohio State has the No. 1 passing attack in the country when considering EPA, but Indiana had the No. 3, Penn State had the No. 4, and Louisville had the No. 9. It is not like the Irish have not been tested.
This strength vs. strength matchup should break Notre Dame's way often enough to secure this Under, particularly when remembering Marcus Freeman should attempt to shorten this game and hope for luck on the margins.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame live odds
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