There are a lot of great things about the 12-team College Football Playoff. The fact we might see the best two teams face off in the quarterfinals isn’t one of them.
My Ohio State vs. Oregon predictions explain why I like the Ducks to stay perfect and send the Buckeyes home empty-handed in the Rose Bowl on Wednesday, January 1.
Kickoff is set for 5:00 p.m. ET from the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, with the game airing on ESPN.
Ohio State vs Oregon prediction and best bet
Spread prediction:
Oregon +2.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Despite being undefeated, which includes a win over this same Ohio State team, Oregon opened this Rose Bowl matchup as light 1.5-point underdogs. And early bettors didn’t think that was enough respect for the Buckeyes, quickly snatching up that number and moving the spread to 2.5.
Ohio State closed the Oct. 12 meeting as 3.5-point favorites, and with that game coming down to a last-second field goal, it’s not surprising bettors see value in the Buckeyes.
I was hoping we would get to take three points with the Ducks again, but it appears sportsbooks won’t let us get there this time around.
Total prediction:
Over 55.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
The total hit the board at 53.5 and bettors have jumped on the Over, moving the number up to 55.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. While Ohio State and Oregon went a combined 13-7 to the Under over their last 20 games, I tend to agree with the early money.
These teams cruised Over the closing total of 54.5 in that previous meeting, and Oregon’s defense looked a little vulnerable in the Big Ten Championship Game, surrendering 37 points to Penn State in that one and crushing the total of 51 in a 45-37 final score.
Moneyline prediction:
Oregon (+110 at BetMGM)
I will break this down more in depth below. But it comes down to this. In what I expect to be a close game, I trust Oregon’s head coach-quarterback combination of Dan Lanning and Dillon Gabriel more than Ohio State’s Ryan Day and Will Howard.
My best bet
Oregon moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Rose Bowl would usually be an awesome place for the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Oregon Ducks to settle their differences.
However, I speak for most college football fans when I say I wish these two powerhouses were meeting in the National Championship Game instead.
The No. 1 seed Ducks are undefeated at 13-0 and were crowned Big Ten champions in their first year in the conference. Their record includes wins over Ohio State in the regular season and Penn State in the conference title game.
Meanwhile, the No. 8 seed Buckeyes enter this matchup with an 11-2 record. A one-point loss at Oregon back in October isn’t anything to be upset about, but losing to rival Michigan at home 13-10 as 20-point favorites made some question whether Ryan Day’s team would live up to the lofty expectations bestowed upon them in the preseason.
A 42-17 beatdown of Tennessee in the first round of the CFP reminded everyone just how scary good this Ohio State team can be.
The other thing of note in that first-round win was Ryan Day got out of his own way and put the ball in the hands of his best players — Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and let them do their thing, torching a very good Vols defense.
However, Smith and Egbuka were injured in the last matchup against Oregon, and the Ducks still managed to win.
That’s for a few reasons. One, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel made more big plays in the passing game than his counterpart Will Howard. And outside of one big rush from TreVeyon Henderson, the Ducks shut down the Buckeyes’ run game.
Gabriel continues to impress when the lights are the brightest. In matchups against Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State, the Ducks have put up 32, 38, and 45 points, proving this Ducks offense can fly against the toughest opponents.
But it comes down to this: OSU ranks first in EPA margin, Oregon fifth. I expect this to be a close game, and in a close game, I would rather put my faith in the hands of Dillion Gabriel and Dan Lanning than Will Howard and Ryan Day.
Ohio State vs Oregon same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon moneyline
Dillon Gabriel 2+ passing touchdowns
Jeremiah Smith 80+ receiving yards
What more can be said about Gabriel that hasn’t been said already? The QB finished third in the Heisman voting after throwing for 3,558 yards with 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He is also now the all-time FBS leader in total touchdowns, and I expect him to toss a couple more in the Rose Bowl on Wednesday.
Gabriel has thrown multiple TD passes in all but two games this season. He threw two in the October win against Ohio State and a massive four against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. He has proven time and again he can be effective against the nation’s best defenses, so I won’t be doubting him here.
Let’s also not doubt the absurd talent of Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. My guess is he would be WR1 if he were eligible for this April’s upcoming NFL Draft.
He has also come up big in Ohio State’s biggest games. In matchups against Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, and Tennessee, he's hauled in 24 catches for 293 yards and four touchdowns. Specifically, in that last matchup against the Ducks, he grabbed a whopping nine balls for 100 yards and a score.
I expect Smith to reach the 80-yard plateau in this one, which he has done eight times this season.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio State vs Oregon odds
Ohio State vs Oregon live odds
Ohio State vs Oregon opening odds
- Ohio State vs. Oregon spread: Oregon +1.5
- Ohio State vs. Oregon moneyline: Ohio State -115, Oregon -105
- Ohio State vs. Oregon Over/Under: 53.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ohio State vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oregon opened the Rose Bowl as 1.5-point underdogs despite being the undefeated No. 1 seed that already has a win over this very opponent. But early bettors paid no attention to that, backing the Buckeyes and moving the spread to 2.5.
- The spread in the Oct. 12 meeting between these two in Oregon closed with the Ducks as 3.5-point home underdogs, so it's no wonder early bettors see some value in Ohio State.
- The total hit the board at 53.5 and is already up to 55.5 as of Tuesday afternoon. The total closed at 54.5 when these teams last met.
- Ohio State has gone 7-3 to the Under in its last 10 games, but the three Overs were against arguably the best teams they faced over that stretch: Oregon, Indiana, and Tennessee.
- According to Covers Consensus, 59% of spread picks are laying the points with Oregon, while 71% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Ohio State vs Oregon betting trend to know
Ohio State has only covered the first-quarter spread in three of its last 12 games for -6.25 Units and a -45% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Oregon.
How to watch Ohio State vs Oregon game info
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 1-1-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Ohio State vs Oregon latest injuries
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