With more than 250 scenarios still in play to decide who earns a berth in the Big 12 Championship Game, Coach Prime’s Colorado Buffaloes need a win in the regular season finale against the Oklahoma State Cowboys to stay in the hunt.
The Buffaloes know how to score, and my Oklahoma State vs. Colorado predictions expect plenty of points on November 27.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 65.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This is a tricky scheduling spot in that this is a short-week game in cold conditions. The weather forecast calls for temps of 28 to 36 degrees for a 10:00 a.m. local kick.
It’s also fair to question the motivation levels for both teams after Colorado may have had its dreams crushed in last week’s uncompetitive loss to Kansas and Oklahoma State hasn’t won a conference game this calendar year.
With all the uncertainty, let’s focus on the known variables.
Mostly, OK State doesn’t play sound defense. The Cowboys surrender a whopping 503.3 total yards per game on 6.8 yards per play. The advanced metrics aren’t any better — the Pokes rank 132nd in both EPA per play and explosiveness, failing to stop the run or the pass.
They get no push up front, don’t get into the backfield, and don’t rush the passer. Combine that with an inability to blanket opposing receivers, and it’s no mystery why this defense has been lit aflame with regularity.
This defense was bad to begin with, but things went from bad to worse when its two best players only featured in seven combined games before being lost to injury. Defensive end Collin Oliver and linebacker Nick Martin have been sorely missed.
Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and this Buffs offense should have a tremendous day offensively. Colorado averages 6.1 yards per play and has two potential Top 5 NFL Draft picks leading the way, and it hardly requires that level of talent to put up a crooked number against the Pokes.
On the flip side, Oklahoma State plays at a fast tempo (12th in plays per minute) and has managed to be decently efficient (43rd in EPA per play) despite a lot of turmoil. This has led to plenty of shootouts, and Week 14 should be no different.
The QB position has been a black hole for the Pokes. Still, true freshman Maealiuaki Smith provided a breath of fresh air by throwing for 316 yards and two touchdowns (plus another on the ground) while completing 74.3% of his passes in his first career start against Texas Tech a week ago.
The Pokes racked up 32 first downs and 508 yards of offense on 7.6 yards per play while scoring 48 points.
The skill position talent was always there: Ollie Gordon II won the Doak Walker Award last year, Brennan Presley is second on the all-time career Big 12 receptions leaderboard with 307, De’Zhaun Stribling (872 yards, six touchdowns) may be an NFL wideout, and Rashod Owens has 1,771 career receiving yards and 10 touchdowns to his name.
I’ll take the Over as the Pokes are a shootout team through and through. They’ve seen a boost at QB and the defense has shown no signs of improving. Colorado is more than capable of making this team pay.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 65.5
Brennan Presley 70+ receiving yards
Brennan Presley anytime touchdown
Travis Hunter 90+ receiving yards
This could be a huge game for Brennan Presley, as he’s the next slot receiver in line to torch this Colorado secondary.
Presley is a volume hog with 117 targets. Opposing teams have repeatedly targeted the slot against Colorado — nickel Preston Hodge has been targetted 14 more times (71) for 11 more receptions (43) and 243 more yards (532) than any other teammate.
Those numbers are despite the fact he’s missed the last two games. His status is questionable for Week 14, but if he plays, he’ll get burnt per usual. If he doesn’t, the ultra-veteran Presley should cook against backups.
Travis Hunter needs all the stats he can get to secure the Heisman. The frontrunner for the prestigious award should pad his numbers in what is arguably the most advantageous matchup in the sport.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma State vs Colorado odds
Oklahoma State vs Colorado live odds
Oklahoma State vs Colorado opening odds
- Oklahoma State vs. Colorado spread: Colorado -16.5
- Oklahoma State vs. Colorado moneyline: Oklahoma State +550, Colorado -800
- Oklahoma State vs. Colorado Over/Under: 63.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma State vs Colorado spread and Over/Under analysis
- Colorado has been covering spreads all year (8-3 ATS), while Oklahoma State has been allergic to doing so (3-8 ATS).
- Both teams have trended toward the Over as Colorado is 6-4-1 O/U and Oklahoma State is 7-4 O/U.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado betting trend to know
Colorado is 4-0-1 O/U in its last five home games. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma State vs Colorado.
Oklahoma State vs Colorado game info
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Friday, 11-29, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Oklahoma State vs Colorado latest injuries
Oklahoma State vs Colorado weather
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