The Oklahoma Sooners seek to keep the wagon from tipping over when it faces the Mississippi Rebels today, with kickoff set for noon ET at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford and broadcast on ESPN.
The Sooners aren’t enjoying life in the SEC, sitting just 1-3 in conference play and are struggling to find answers on offense, and my Oklahoma vs. Mississippi predictions expect them to struggle early against a Rebels outfit that has had a week to stew on blowing a late lead against LSU.
Read on to see why I think the Lane Train will waste no time getting back to .500 in conference play as I break down one of my favorite college football picks for Saturday, October 26.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi prediction and best bet
My best bet
Mississippi -10.5 1H (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
When I watch the Oklahoma Sooners, I’m often reminded of a revolving door.
Jackson Arnold started the season at quarterback before making way for Michael Hawkins Jr, in the middle of the loss to Tennessee. Hawkins came in and moved the ball well, and everyone got excited! And then…well…he kinda looked the same as Arnold did, consistently throwing for about 140 to 160 yards a game.
Until last week, when he got benched after giving up the football on each of his first three drives. And thus Arnold returned, throwing for 225 yards — much of which came in garbage time — and reclaimed the starting job. But he’ll be taking plays from someone other than Seth Littrell, who was fired after the Sooners put just nine points on the board against South Carolina.
But perhaps the reason I’m seeing revolving doors is because that’s what Oklahoma’s offensive line best resembles. It was one of the main reasons why I picked South Carolina to upset the Sooners last week, and they were even worse than I expected. Oklahoma’s front line notched their second-lowest PFF pass protection grade of the season, a pitiful 48.0 mark, and second-worst run-block grade as well.
It doesn’t matter who is taking the snaps or calling the plays when your offense is allowing a sack one of every eight times the quarterback drops back to pass. The Sooners are also allowing 9.75 tackles for loss per game in SEC play, which is the fifth-most of any team in their conference outings.
The Mississippi Rebels rank third in EPA/rush, second in early down EPA/play, and are forcing the longest average distance on third downs at 8.95 yards to gain. SEC opponents are rushing for just 2.88 yards per carry against a Mississippi front seven registering a 15% Havoc rate and an 8.1% sack rate.
Oklahoma’s defense has kept them in games at times this season, but they can only do so much when thrown back onto the field after brief periods of rest and defending short fields. And while they’re stout against the run, the Sooner secondary has some issues.
A stellar pass rush has papered over some of the cracks, but the Sooners have conceded 19 pass plays of 20+ yards in four SEC games. The Gamecocks had four of them last week, quite a lot from a passing attack that isn’t known as being prolific. Mississippi ranks 15th in EPA/pass, and if the Sooner pass rush isn’t getting home, Jaxson Dart will make them pay.
Lane Kiffin’s offense has 13 such plays in three SEC games, and he’s got one of the most dangerous receivers in the nation in Tre Harris. Throw in the fact he’s had a bye week to draw up a scheme to negate OU’s pass rush and get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, and I won’t be shocked to see the Sooner defense looking like they’re spinning in circles as well.
Take the Rebels to jump out early and lead by 11+ at the break.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi same-game parlay (SGP)
Mississippi -10.5 1H
Tre Harris 100+ receiving yards
Oklahoma team total Under 13.5
Texas receiver Gunnar Helm caught five passes for 91 yards against the Sooners. Tennessee’s Bru McCoy hauled in four passes for 92 yards, while Dont’e Thornton needed just two catches to rack up 73 yards.
The Sooners will try to key on Harris, but he’s getting targeted at a high rate. He’s averaging 119.6 yards/game in SEC play, and he’ll top the century mark again here as he catches at least six passes.
The Sooners may find some opportunities later in the game to put together some drives when the game is over, but I’m not sure how much it’ll matter. Mississippi is allowing just 2.2 points per opportunity, ranks fifth in red zone scoring defense, and its three SEC opponents have managed just 27 points on eight visits inside the 20-yard line.
The Rebels are susceptible to the deep ball, but Oklahoma won’t be able to give Arnold time to find anything downfield. The Sooners will fail to reach 14 points for the third straight game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oklahoma vs Mississippi odds
Oklahoma vs Mississippi live odds
Oklahoma vs Mississippi opening odds
- Oklahoma vs. Mississippi spread: Mississippi -6.5
- Oklahoma vs. Mississippi moneyline: Oklahoma +950, Mississippi -2,000
- Oklahoma vs. Mississippi Over/Under: 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oklahoma vs Mississippi spread and Over/Under analysis
- The spread for this game opened at 18.5 and quickly moved two points to settle at 20.5 on Sunday, where it’s remained all week. Oklahoma is 1-3 ATS in SEC play, including failing to come close to covering +17 vs Texas. Mississippi is 1-2 ATS and has lost outright as favorites twice to Kentucky and LSU.
- Oklahoma is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games, and has covered the first half spread just once in its last four road games.
- Unlike the spread, there’s been movement with the total. After opening at 47.5 on Sunday, there was a bump to 49.5 on Thursday evening.
- Over bettors have been getting hurt by inflated market numbers with Mississippi, as the Under is 6-0 in the last six games for the Rebels. That said, the first half Over has been profitable for Oklahoma road games, cashing in three of the last four.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi betting trend to know
Oklahoma has only covered the 1H Spread in one of its last four away games (-2.50 Units / -54% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Mississippi.
Oklahoma vs Mississippi game info
| Location: | Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-26-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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