College football bowl season is in full swing, and Saturday’s SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl between the Florida Gators (6-6) and Oregon State Beavers (9-3) should be entertaining.
Florida is hoping to shake a two-game losing streak to close SEC play, while Pac-12 representative Oregon State is riding a three-game winning streak, including a regular-season ending 38-34 upset over Oregon.
Who will be crowned SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl champ? Find out in our free college football picks and predictions for this Florida vs. Oregon State matchup on Saturday, December 17.
Oregon State vs Florida best odds
Oregon State vs Florida picks and predictions
The Gators are 1-4 against the best teams in the country but were 4-1 ATS, and they will cover the 10-point spread here.
It won’t be easy. Team leader Anthony Richardson has opted out to prepare for the NFL draft, but the Gators will look to their future when third-year sophomore Jack Miller III makes his first start under center.
Miller is an Ohio State transfer, so you know he can sling it. He has solid weapons at his disposal — wideouts Ricky Pearsall and Justin Shorter have combined for 1173 yards with seven TD receptions behind an offensive line allowing only one sack per game season.
The Gators also feature one of the best backfield tandems in the country. RBs Montrell Johnson Jr and Trevor Etienne have combined for 1,535 rushing yards and 16 TDs.
Oregon State plays a stingy defense —30th in the country in total yards allowed and allow a 38th-best 19 first-downs per game. The Beavers have been particularly tough on the rush, allowing the 16th-fewest yards per contest but ranking 82nd in the pass.
The Gators defense has been shaky all season. They have a test Saturday against frosh QB Ben Gulbranson. The Beavers are 6-1 this season when Gulbranson makes the start, and he’s thrown for 1,290 passing yards with eight TDs alongside five interceptions. Gulbranson likes to spread the ball, and four Beavers wideouts have at least three receiving TDs this season.
A very bad Gators rushing defense has a challenge because Oregon State has a good backfield. Frosh RB Damien Martinez leads the way with 970 yards and seven TDs, sophomore Jam Griffin has 486 yards with three TDs, and junior RB Deshaun Fenwick has 446 yards with seven TDs.
Florida might be a .500 team, but it plays in a tough conference and has faced five nationally-ranked teams — six if you count LSU. They didn’t win many of those games, but they were 5-1 ATS and will cover Saturday.
The Gators offense takes a hit without Richardson, but Miller should be fine, and his offense is diverse enough to score against Oregon State. The Gators' backfield might be the best the Beavers have faced thus far, and stopping two 100-yard rushers is a hard ask.
Florida will move the chains and should be able to score multiple TDs. The Beavers can light up the scoreboard, and a terrible Florida defense will likely accommodate them, but they won’t outscore the Gators by 10+ points.
My best bet: Florida +10 (-110 at bet365)
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Oregon State vs Florida spread analysis
I like the Gators to cover the 10 points, but here are some additional notes for Saturday’s contest.
Florida’s Johnson and Etienne are one of just eight backfield combos to each rush for over 700 yards, and one of four to each average over 5.5 yards per attempt. They accomplish this behind one of the nation's best offensive lines — Oregon State will lose ground at the line of scrimmage, and the Gators tandem will get the job done.
Pearsall has hauled in a pass in 27 consecutive games and is coming off a career day with 148 receiving yards and a pair of TD receptions. He’s second in the nation with 20.3 per catch facing a Beavers defense allowing an average of 10.8 yards per completion.
Gulbranson is coming off his worst start as a Beaver, throwing for 60 yards and a pair of picks in the upset victory over Oregon. He’s struggled against nationally-ranked opponents, throwing for less than a combined 200 yards with four interceptions. Florida spent three weeks this season in the Top 25, was ranked as high as 12th, and is probably better than its record.
Florida was 7-5 ATS this season while playing the 15th-strongest schedule. Oregon State finished its season with a 10-2 ATS record with the 38th-most difficult schedule.
Oregon State vs Florida Over/Under analysis
The total is 52 points, and I am leaning toward this contest going Under the oddsmakers’ number.
Both offenses feature robust rushing attacks, and I see each team going to its strengths as often as possible. Florida has Miller making his first start of the season, and Gulbranson is capable, but Oregon State doesn’t expect him to win the game with his arm. The clock will grind, and that will help keep the score down.
The Beavers’ defense has been superb, with 84 points allowed over their past five and well below the 21-per-game season average. Florida will miss the production of Richardson and will have a tough time meeting its 31.8 season average.
Florida has the 16th-best turnover margin and 13th-best takeaways per game (1.9). Oregon State is 91st in turnover margin and averages 80th-best 1.3 takeaways per matchup.
The Over is 7-5 in each school’s contests this season. The Over is 4-1 when Florida plays a nationally ranked opponent, and 3-2 in Oregon State’s away games.
In-play microbetting trends for Florida vs Oregon State
The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):
Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
Florida
Offensive score Yes: 21/44 (47.7%)
Offensive score No: 23/44 (52.3%)
Punts: 11/44 (25%)
TDs: 17/44 (38.6%)
FG attempts: 6/44 (13.6%)
TOs: 10/44 (22.7%)
Florida had six drives that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Oregon State
Offensive score Yes: 10/21 (47.6%)
Offensive score No: 11/21 (52.4%)
Punts: 8/21 (38.1%)
TDs: 8/21 (38.1%)
FG attempts: 3/21 (14.3%)
TOs: 2/21 (9.5%)
Oregon State had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Oregon State vs Florida betting trend to know
The Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon State vs. Florida.
Oregon State vs Florida game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Saturday, December 17, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Oregon State vs Florida weather
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