Early Oregon vs Michigan Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Week 10

The Wolverines are bad but they don't generally get blown out because they grind the ball into the ground to control pace. The Ducks don't tend to go for the jugular, either, despite being undefeated.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Oct 28, 2024 • 09:12 ET • 4 min read
Traeshon Holden Oregon Ducks NCAA College Football
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The No. 1 Oregon Ducks look to keep rolling as they travel to the Big House in Week 10 to face the Michigan Wolverines. 

The Ducks are the top team in the country whereas Michigan is having a down season, yet got back on track with a 24-17 win over Michigan State a week ago. 

Read on for my full college football picks and predictions on Saturday, November 2

Oregon vs Michigan predictions

Early spread lean
Michigan +14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Michigan Wolverines have been a terrible bet this season, going 2-6 ATS. Will the downswing continue indefinitely, or is it time to buy low? 
I think this a fine time to buy as the Wolverines are catching 14.5 points at home. Sherrone Moore’s team may be in a world of trouble, but we’re not looking at the long run — we’re just looking at a single spread. 

Michigan’s offense may be atrocious but its defense is still performing well, holding seven of eight opponents below 30 points thanks to a fearsome defensive line.

When keeping the ball on the ground and playing at a slow tempo, the game gets shortened and margins become smaller. That’s the way Moore has attempted to counterbalance his lackluster offense and while it may not result in a win, it’s a style of play that is not conducive to blowouts. 

The Oregon Ducks do not need any style points — simply keep winning and you’re in the College Football Playoff. Dan Lanning’s squad has repeatedly taken its foot off the gas in the second half of games, such as last week when they scored just three second-half points in a comfortable 38-9 victory over Illinois. 

There’s been a lot of chatter about how poorly teams have played when crossing multiple time zones in a season where conference realignment has led to a new scheduling dynamic. That’s the case here with Oregon making the cross-country road trip.

There are advantages for Oregon up and down the board. They’re better coached and are much better offensively. Analyzing the spread isn’t simply about picking the better team, however, and this feels like a lot of points for a Michigan team at the Big House in a sluggish game environment.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Oregon has gone Under the total in four of its last five games. Lanning’s preference for sitting on leads and doing as much as it takes to stay undefeated — and nothing more — has led to some lower-scoring contests. 

The defense is performing at an elite level, allowing 12.8 points per game in the last seven. Remove the Ohio State win and that number drops to 9.2.

The Ducks check in as the sixth-highest-graded defense per PFF, while Michigan ranks 85th on offense. The Wolverines have managed no more than 322 total yards of offense against any of its Power Conference opponents, so there’s not much reason to expect a quick turnaround with things quickly getting late in the season.

Michigan had been rotating and switching quarterbacks all year and it was Davis Warren’s turn as the starter against Michigan State in Week 9. While he did throw for two scores, he also accumulated just 123 passing yards while the rushing attack contributed only 3.8 yards per carry. 

Tight end Colston Loveland is the star of the show with 411 receiving yards and four scores. The issue is the secondary playmakers simply haven’t made an impact — no other pass-catcher has 120 yards, whereas running back Kalel Mullings has hit a wall and Donovan Edwards has had a massively disappointing year. 

Oregon’s offense has been elite, notching at least 6.7 yards per play in each of its last four games. That hasn’t resulted in enormous point totals, however, as the Ducks are 3-5 O/U and have reached 40 points just once. 

Michigan will sit on the ball per usual, whereas Oregon has no reason to push the tempo. This should be a slugfest where Michigan tries to assert its physicality while Oregon proves it is elite defensively

Oregon vs Michigan live odds

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JD Yonke
Contributor

JD is a diehard college football fan with five years of experience writing betting and fantasy content for publications such as SportsGrid, Fantasy Points, Fantrax, and Devy Watch. An avid reader, he uses his inclination to look at things with an exhausting and in-depth, analytic viewpoint combined with a love for statistics and metrics to form a well-rounded handicapping approach.

e's an integral member of the niche (but growing!) college fantasy football community, twice traveling to Canton, OH for the Fantasy Football Expo as a member of the CFF King's Classic drafting squad. His specialization in college football DFS and prop betting taught him that there are exploitable markets to be found and that narrowing your focus is integral to being a profitable bettor.

A lifelong Californian who grew up playing baseball, basketball, football, and lacrosse, he's glad to share a passionate love for sports with this wonderful community.

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