The No. 1 Oregon Ducks look to keep rolling as they travel to the Big House in Week 10 to face the Michigan Wolverines.
The Ducks are the top team in the country whereas Michigan is having a down season, yet got back on track with a 24-17 win over Michigan State a week ago.
Read on for my full college football picks and predictions on Saturday, November 2
Oregon vs Michigan predictions
Early spread lean
Michigan +14.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Michigan Wolverines have been a terrible bet this season, going 2-6 ATS. Will the downswing continue indefinitely, or is it time to buy low?
I think this a fine time to buy as the Wolverines are catching 14.5 points at home. Sherrone Moore’s team may be in a world of trouble, but we’re not looking at the long run — we’re just looking at a single spread.
Michigan’s offense may be atrocious but its defense is still performing well, holding seven of eight opponents below 30 points thanks to a fearsome defensive line.
When keeping the ball on the ground and playing at a slow tempo, the game gets shortened and margins become smaller. That’s the way Moore has attempted to counterbalance his lackluster offense and while it may not result in a win, it’s a style of play that is not conducive to blowouts.
The Oregon Ducks do not need any style points — simply keep winning and you’re in the College Football Playoff. Dan Lanning’s squad has repeatedly taken its foot off the gas in the second half of games, such as last week when they scored just three second-half points in a comfortable 38-9 victory over Illinois.
There’s been a lot of chatter about how poorly teams have played when crossing multiple time zones in a season where conference realignment has led to a new scheduling dynamic. That’s the case here with Oregon making the cross-country road trip.
There are advantages for Oregon up and down the board. They’re better coached and are much better offensively. Analyzing the spread isn’t simply about picking the better team, however, and this feels like a lot of points for a Michigan team at the Big House in a sluggish game environment.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Oregon has gone Under the total in four of its last five games. Lanning’s preference for sitting on leads and doing as much as it takes to stay undefeated — and nothing more — has led to some lower-scoring contests.
The defense is performing at an elite level, allowing 12.8 points per game in the last seven. Remove the Ohio State win and that number drops to 9.2.
The Ducks check in as the sixth-highest-graded defense per PFF, while Michigan ranks 85th on offense. The Wolverines have managed no more than 322 total yards of offense against any of its Power Conference opponents, so there’s not much reason to expect a quick turnaround with things quickly getting late in the season.
Michigan had been rotating and switching quarterbacks all year and it was Davis Warren’s turn as the starter against Michigan State in Week 9. While he did throw for two scores, he also accumulated just 123 passing yards while the rushing attack contributed only 3.8 yards per carry.
Tight end Colston Loveland is the star of the show with 411 receiving yards and four scores. The issue is the secondary playmakers simply haven’t made an impact — no other pass-catcher has 120 yards, whereas running back Kalel Mullings has hit a wall and Donovan Edwards has had a massively disappointing year.
Oregon’s offense has been elite, notching at least 6.7 yards per play in each of its last four games. That hasn’t resulted in enormous point totals, however, as the Ducks are 3-5 O/U and have reached 40 points just once.
Michigan will sit on the ball per usual, whereas Oregon has no reason to push the tempo. This should be a slugfest where Michigan tries to assert its physicality while Oregon proves it is elite defensively
Oregon vs Michigan live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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