The Oregon Ducks will seek to keep their undefeated record and No. 1 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings as they visit the Wisconsin Badgers tonight.
The Ducks have been rolling as of late and should cover against a Badgers team that has lost two straight, as I’ll explain in my Oregon vs. Wisconsin predictions.
Keep reading for a full analysis of this Big Ten matchup in my free college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, with the game airing on NBC.
Oregon vs Wisconsin prediction and best bet
Who will win?
Oregon is the consensus No. 1 team in the nation, and that makes it hard to pick against the Ducks no matter who they might be playing.
Considering that this week’s opponent is Wisconsin, which is coming off of two straight blowout losses, our pick is pretty simple.
I’m not worried about the fact that it’s a road game: Oregon will win this one.
My best bet
Oregon -13.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
Barring an absolute disaster, Oregon should be a lock for the College Football Playoff. It’s not just that the Ducks keep winning, but they haven’t even been challenged since their 32-31 win over Ohio State back in early October.
The Ducks have won each of their last four games by 21 points or more, covering three of those contests. Oregon’s defense has only given up over 18 points once in its last eight games, while the offense has scored at least 31 in each of its last nine outings.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel leads a brutally efficient passing game. Gabriel has thrown for 2,848 yards and 22 touchdowns while completing 74.1% of his passes this season. The Ducks lead the nation in completion percentage and are top 15 in the country in both yards per attempt and yards per completion, so these are hardly dump-offs.
That’s going to be tough for Wisconsin to deal with. It’s not that the Badgers can’t play defense: they’re allowing just 21.4 ppg, are solid against the pass, and might even be a team that can hold Oregon below its gaudy season averages. But the Ducks will score, and it’s hard to see how Wisconsin can keep up with that.
The Badgers don’t have any outstanding offensive talent, and that’s what it takes to have any hope of scoring against the Ducks right now. Oregon is good against the run, allowing 3.9 yards per rush, and one of the best in the nation against the pass.
This all adds up to a long night for Wisconsin. It may be a relatively slow bleed, as Wisconsin can put up resistance on the defensive end. But in the end, Oregon should win this game by multiple scores without any real concern.
Oregon vs Wisconsin same-game parlay (SGP)
Oregon -13.5
Under 51.5
Jordan James anytime TD
Oregon should walk away with a comfortable win on Saturday, but this isn’t going to be a shootout. While the Ducks consistently score in the 30s – they’ve done so in seven consecutive games – it is their defense that has been truly impressive as of late, holding their last four opponents to an average of just 11 ppg. I like Oregon to shut down Wisconsin enough to hold the Under in this one.
I’ll also take Oregon running back Jordan James to score at some point in the game. James has 10 touchdowns on the year and has scored in seven of his last eight games. He’ll continue to get his share of the carries this week, and that means a likely trip to the endzone against the Badgers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Oregon vs Wisconsin odds
Oregon vs Wisconsin live odds
Oregon vs Wisconsin opening odds
- Oregon vs. Wisconsin spread: Wisconsin +13.5
- Oregon vs. Wisconsin moneyline: Oregon -550, Wisconsin +400
- Oregon vs. Wisconsin Over/Under: 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Oregon vs Wisconsin spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oregon is 5-5 against the spread this year, with Wisconsin coming in 3-6 ATS on the season.
- The Badgers are 1-4 ATS as underdogs this season, only covering by winning outright as a one-point underdog against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
- The Over has a 5-4 record when Wisconsin plays. The Under has the 6-4 advantage in Oregon’s games.
- The Ducks are playing to an average total of 51.7 ppg, while the Badgers are averaging a total of 46.5 ppg.
- 68% of Covers Consensus users are backing Oregon on the spread, while 61% are taking the Over.
Oregon vs Wisconsin betting trend to know
Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Oregon vs Wisconsin.
Oregon vs Wisconsin game info
| Location: | Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, WI |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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