The Big Ten regular season wraps up for the No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions and the Michigan State Spartans when the two teams tangle on tonight at Ford Field.
Penn State has secured bowl eligibility, but a victory over MSU would mean a Big Six bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Michigan State exits a come-from-behind victory at Indiana but fell short of a postseason bowl invitation, and the college football odds have the Spartans listed as a +21 point home underdog.
I break it all down and give my best free college football picks for Penn State and Michigan State on Friday, November 24.
Penn State vs Michigan State best odds
Penn State vs Michigan State picks and predictions
Neither team has a chance of winning the Big Ten Conference, but the Penn State Nittany Lions do have something to play for on Friday night.
Penn State has already reserved a postseason bowl invite, but a victory over the Michigan State Spartans would all but secure a bowl appearance on New Year's Day. Playing in a Big Six bowl game allows more exposure for the program and more money to fund it.
The Nittany Lions defense is stout. It's a great group and a huge reason why Penn State is 8-3-0 against the spread and 3-1-0 ATS as the away team. This unit allows the fourth fewest points per game nationally and is second only to Michigan in total defense.
The Penn State defense goes into attack mode from the opening kickoff. This group allows a paltry 1.6 first-quarter points per contest, and they face a mostly stagnant Michigan State offense averaging 2.3 1Q points, somehow regressing to 0.6 1Q points at home. Ford Field isn’t the Spartans home field, and they may not score any first-quarter points on Friday.
The Spartans defense isn’t on the same level as the Nittany Lions group, but they allow 5.6 first-quarter points per matchup. They boast the 45th-best rushing defense, and they’ll need it because, with the health of Penn State QB Drew Allar in question, we should expect the Nittany Lions to consistently run the ball.
Penn State's rushing offense is slightly better than average and MSU might not be able to stop it, but the Spartans certainly can slow it enough to keep the Nittany Lions from running amok in the first quarter.
Penn State has a monstrous defense that begins from the opening gun. They allow less than a field goal per 1Q and face an MSU offense that starts painfully slow and averages less than one first-quarter point per home contest.
Finally, I don’t expect much throwing from Allar or reserve Beau Pribula. They won’t have to throw the football to beat MSU, nor should we expect them to.
My best bet: First quarter Under 9.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Penn State vs Michigan State same-game parlay
First quarter Under 9.5
Penn State - 21
Under 43
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This entire card revolves around the Penn State defense. It's stout throughout the game, resulting in the Nittany Lions going 8-3-0 ATS and 3-1-0 ATS as the away team. MSU is a 5-5-1 ATS team but just 3-3-0 ATS wearing the home jerseys.
The game should end Under the total as well. The Nittany Lions defense will be the catalyst, and the young Spartans offense has struggled when facing strong defenses like this. Michigan State scored three points combined against very similar Ohio State and Michigan defenses, and it wouldn’t surprise me if MSU failed to score at all.
Finally, the Spartans defense isn’t that bad. They can slow down the rush, compete with the Nittany Lions wideouts, and keep Penn State below their 36.7 points per game average.
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Penn State vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis
DraftKings opened Penn State at -1,350, which has ballooned to -1,600. We could wager $100 to win $950 on the Spartans moneyline. As much as I LOVE to play the underdog, Michigan State winning this game isn’t going to happen.
Penn State also opened as a -21 (-110) favorite. The number dropped to 20.5 (-110) on Monday for a little while and is again -21 (-110). The little dip was likely due to the uncertainty surrounding Allar. It appears he will attempt to play, and I don’t expect this number to move either way unless Allar is ruled out.
DraftKings opened the Over at 42 (-110). That number rose briefly to 43.5 (-110) but seems stuck at 43. I don’t see the number rising again, and if anything, the game total on the board could return to 42.
Penn State vs Michigan State betting trend to know
Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 52% ROI), and Michigan State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in seven of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 20% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Penn State vs Michigan State.
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Penn State vs Michigan State game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Friday, November 24, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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