Rarely does a winning team get outgained by more than 50 yards. It's rarer that an outgained winning team still clearly dominated the game regardless of the yardage differential. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish could make that claim in the Sugar Bowl on Thursday, blowing out Georgia 23-10 despite being outgained by 52 yards.
That statistical oddity helps create betting value when looking ahead to the Orange Bowl against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
My early Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions back the Irish partly because that Sugar Bowl performance is underappreciated, something that should change before kickoff at 7:30 ET on Thursday, January 9.
Penn State vs Notre Dame predictions
Early spread lean
Notre Dame -1.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Power rankings and advanced metrics will downgrade the Notre Dame Fighting Irish despite beating Georgia in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. The Irish converted four of 14 third downs, gained only 244 yards, and averaged merely four yards per play.
Of course, the Bulldogs deserve plenty of credit for that, but the meager offensive output will drag Notre Dame down in any advanced metrics considerations.
Those metrics overlook the game state that made offense less of a priority. Notre Dame adopted a conservative game plan after taking a 13-3 lead just before halftime thanks to a fumble recovery inside the 15-yard line.
To that point, the Bulldogs had run 32 plays for 141 total yards, 67 coming on one pass. Excluding that completion to Arian Smith, Georgia had averaged 2.39 yards per play. Notre Dame knew its defense would continue to win the day, making a 10-point lead insurmountable as long as the Irish did not gift the Bulldogs a scoring opportunity.
The playcalling reflected that. With the lead, Notre Dame sought to shorten the game, running only 31 plays on four drives for 97 yards in the second half. A 12-play drive that lasted more than half the fourth quarter gained all of 41 yards, and the Irish considered it wildly successful.
These were features, not bugs, in the Irish game plan.
However, this spread treats them like bugs. Notre Dame will have more explosiveness against the Penn State Nittany Lions, a quality defense lacking some of the key playmakers. Irish running back Jeremiyah Love should be closer to health, a knee injury bothering him the last few weeks.
Downgrading Notre Dame after its Sugar Bowl win is a mistake, but it creates early betting value in the Orange Bowl.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 46.5 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden dials up aggressive defenses that make life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. Nittany Lions offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki is one of the most creative offensive minds in the country, and he enjoys a veteran quarterback in Drew Allar who should not be flustered by Golden’s coverage designs.
Trust Allar to find some success, even if it's only moderate.
On the other side of the ball, the seeming Irish struggles in the Sugar Bowl again create value. And the Penn State defense should be a better matchup for Notre Dame than Georgia’s was.
The Bulldogs’ greater defensive weakness is against the pass, far from an Irish preference, while the Nittany Lions struggle to entirely shut down a rushing attack, as Oregon made very clear in the Big Ten championship game.
Notre Dame will be glad to run the ball, its rushing attack within a whisker of the Ducks’ potency.
Yes, Penn State shut down Boise State on New Year’s Eve, but the Irish offensive line is far better than the Broncos,’ and it should find far more push than it did against the Bulldogs.
Kotelnicki’s designs on one side of the ball and Notre Dame’s rushing attack on the other should assure an Over, certainly when looking at this slim total.
Penn State vs Notre Dame live odds
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