College Football Week 5 Best Bets and Predictions: Dukes Blast Through Ball State

James Madison -20.5

Best odds: +110 at BetMGM

With teams like Northern Illinois and Memphis losing outright as favorites last week, the shortlist of Group of Five teams that are contenders for the College Football Playoff got a little bit shorter.

And with James Madison scoring a huge win over North Carolina, the Dukes are now a part of that playoff conversation. An achievement in itself, considering the massive transition JMU is going through this season. 

Former head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana after last season, bringing most of his staff and several of his former players. Many other players transferred out to different schools, including starting quarterback Jordan McCloud

So, the job new HC Bob Chesney has done with the Dukes is really impressive, with the highlight being a 70-50 beatdown of the Tar Heels as 10.5-point underdogs last week in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score. JMU led 60-24 early in the third quarter before cruising the rest of the way.

Quarterback Alonza Barnett has been solid, throwing for 742 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception while rushing for another 203 and two scores, and top back George Pettaway has added 201 yards at 5.9 yards per carry. Plus, the defense ranks a solid 36th in success rate.

These are all good things, but one of the big reasons why I’m willing to lay nearly three touchdowns with the Dukes is because they're playing Ball State.

The poor Cardinals look like one of the worst teams in the country, particularly on defense. Ball State enters this game ranking 121st in defensive success rate and is getting gashed by opposing ground games. The Cardinals rank 122nd in EPA/rush and are surrendering a nation-worst 9.0 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents.

James Madison also runs the football nearly 60% of the time. So, the Dukes can lean on that run game, wear out the Cardinals, and cover this big number.

KJ Jefferson Over 40.5 rushing yards

Best odds: -115 at bet365

Deion Sanders can’t be stopped, and I’m not talking about Colorado winning football games.

Yes, the Buffaloes did pull off a miracle comeback in last week’s game against Baylor, but the bravado Prime Time is bringing into this week’s matchup against UCF is next level, and well, expected at this point.

Sanders has come out and said, the reason UCF is having a rumored “big recruiting” weekend is all because of the Buffs. He may be right to a certain extent, but that doesn’t change the fact the Knights now has some bulletin board material.

Forget for a minute UCF is a two-touchdown favorite, I’m just not sure how favorably those recruits will view the Buffs after the Knights rumble all over them this weekend.

Gus Malzahn’s high-tempo power running offense is exactly the offensive scheme that can give Colorado problems. The trio of RJ Harvey, Peny Boone, and Myles Montgomery have combined for 748 yards at a staggering 7.3 yards per carry, while quarterback KJ Jefferson has added another 135 yards on the ground.

They're going against a Buffs defense still soft in the trenches, ranked 69th in opponent yards per carry vs. FBS opponents. Colorado is yet to face an offense quite like the Knights'. In fact, the best offense the Buffs have faced was Nebraska which ranks 50th in offensive success rate. UCF ranks second.

Additionally, QBs who can run the ball have been a real issue for Colorado. North Dakota State’s Cam Miller rushed for 81 yards on 16 attempts, and just last week Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson went for 82 yards on nine attempts.

Jefferson will have several designed runs on Saturday. He’s carried the ball at least nine times in UCF’s three games for a minimum of 39 yards and has topped 46 yards and five yards per carry in the last two games.

The Knights heard what Prime said. I’m betting they respond by running the ball down his throat.

Houston team total Under 13.5

Best odds: -115 at FanDuel

The Houston Cougars enter this matchup 1-3, with the lone win coming against Rice — a game that featured 64% of Houston’s total points for the entire season. 

Yes, things have been ugly for the Cougars' offense. They opened the season scoring just seven points against UNLV and followed that up by putting up 12 against Oklahoma. But the worst was yet to come, as an OK-at-best Cincinnati defense handed Houston a 34-0 shutout.

Houston’s offense now ranks 123rd in EPA/play and 107th in offensive success rate and the team is getting nothing out of the running game (120th in rush success rate and 98th in EPA/rush). 

Being a one-dimensional offense going against a team with a solid and well-coached defense like Iowa State is going to be a real problem.

Matt Campbell’s squad is 3-0, which includes a big win over rival Iowa. The defense ranks 11th in the country in yards allowed per play and 12th in EPA/play. The Cyclones have had some issues with injuries to their linebacking corps, so hitting them with the run looks like the best way to attack them. But the Cougars don’t look capable of that at the moment.

On top of that, both teams play at a fairly slow tempo. Iowa State ranks 95th in the country in seconds per play and Houston ranks 108th.

A terrible offense going against a very good defense with fewer possessions? There just doesn’t look like a clear path for Houston to go Over its team total.