When it comes to the Triple Option, the fade train is still alive and well. But, I did give you a fair warning and told you to fade me last week.
At this point, it takes some skill to be this cold but I’m doing my best to turn things around. This week I try and break my slump by looking at a few of the best quarterbacks in the county who head into the weekend with tantalizing matchups.
Those and more as the Triple Option returns with my best college football picks and predictions for Week 6.
College football picks and predictions for Week 6
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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College football Week 6 picks
Virginia +2.5 (-110)
This is not your father’s Virginia team.
Usually, when you think of Bronco Mendenhall’s Cavaliers teams, you think of defense. You think running the football and ball control. Well, Brennan Armstrong and the Hoos’ passing attack have kicked down the door of that thought process.
Armstrong has been hucking the ball all over the field this season and his 394.6 passing yards per game is second-best in the country to go along with 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
After back-to-back defeats, Virginia responded last week with a big win over Miami as 3.5-point underdogs and while these ACC foes enter this game with identical records, I’m not convinced the right team is favored here.
Virginia has gone through the tougher of the two schedules and was impressive in victories over Illinois and Miami. Louisville’s best victory came against UCF, where they needed a last-minute pick-six to win, while the toughest defense they have faced has arguably been Mississippi. Even though Virginia’s defense has not been great, it's coming off a game where they held the Hurricanes to a respectable 5.4 yards per play.
But the biggest reason to back the Cavs in this one is the mismatch between Armstrong and the porous Cardinals secondary. Armstrong is going against a Louisville defense that ranks 110th in opponent passing yards per game, 99th in opponent yards per pass, and 98th in opponent completion percentage.
Armstrong is also expected to get back one of his favorite targets in tight end Jelani Woods, who has been a massive target (literally and figuratively) in the red zone when healthy this season. As I said, I’m not sure the right team is favored here, but we’ll happily take the points.
Boise State team total Over 24.5 (-115)
Let’s get this out of the way. Boise State is better than its 2-3 record indicates.
The Broncos have played a tough schedule and are a couple of plays away from being 4-1. They choked away their season opener at UCF, they lost a one-point heartbreaker against what is now 5-0 Oklahoma State and fell in a duel of two of the Mountain West's best quarterbacks as Carson Strong and Nevada came to town.
That said, it doesn’t get any easier this week against BYU. The Cougars are rising up the rankings thanks in part to some crazy results across the college football landscape, but it’s also because of their 5-0 record which includes a perfect 3-0 against Pac-12 opponents in Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State.
But one thing Boise State has going in its favor heading into this game is its passing game. Hank Bachmeier and Khalil Shakir are some of the most dynamic quarterback-wide receiver duos in the country. Bachmeier is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,520 yards with 11 TDs and four picks, while Shakir has hauled in 31 of those passes for 518 yards and four scores.
And while the Cougars haven’t given up a ton of points this season, they have been vulnerable through the air. BYU ranks 99th in the country in passing yards allowed per game and 100th in opponent completion percentage. On top of that, they don’t create a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and will still be down one of their top corners in Keenan Ellis.
I don’t know if Boise State wins. Or even covers. But they will be able to put up some points.
TCU -1.5 (-110)
Returning 18 starters, TCU was one of my favorite sleeper teams in the Big 12 heading into the season. Dual-threat QB Max Duggan has been solid and running back Zack Evans looks like he will cashing game checks on Sundays in the not too distant future.
But, Gary Patterson’s teams are always known for their defense. Welp. Not this year. The Horned Frogs' defense has held them back in 2021 and has cost them back-to-back losses against SMU and Texas, but maybe this is the week things turn around. You know a veteran bunch like this one coached by Patterson is going to improve as the season rolls on.
On top of that, you’ve got to love the matchup against Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders have played well early on, resulting in a 5-1 start. But the one loss was an ugly one to Texas where they allowed 70 points as the Longhorns rumbled for over 300 yards on the ground.
Meanwhile, the Texas Tech offense is in some trouble. Starting quarterback Tyler Shough is already out for at least the next couple of weeks while one of the best wideouts in the Big 12 - Erik Ezukanma, missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable for this matchup.
The Horned Frogs’ defense gets a chance to bounce back against a hobbled Red Raiders’ offense while Evans, who is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt this season, should be licking his chops looking at this matchup and will lead TCU to the win and cover.
Week 6 odds overview
Oklahoma vs Texas (+3, 63.5): Well, would you look at that. Both teams are ranked heading into the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma is undefeated but has been disappointing, while Texas is picking up steam. It's hard to figure out how this game will end up, but if you're giving me a field goal I'll probably side with the underdog.
Arkansas at Mississippi (-5.5, 66.5): Which ranked SEC will bounce back best after suffering humbling losses last week? Arkansas has the physicality to give Mississippi problems but can Matt Corral put last week behind him and continue his Heisman hunt?
Alabama at Texas A&M (-17.5, 51): Before the season not many would have guessed that this would be a matchup of unranked opponents but here we are. Bama is 10-0 against the first-half spread in its last 10 games against SEC opponents. I'll be betting them to keep that streak going in this one.
Odds current at time of publish. Check out our college football odds screen to see live odds and to shop for the best prices.
Week 6 Triple Option betting card
- Virginia +2.5 (-110)
- Boise State Team Total Over 24.5 (-115)
- TCU -1.5 (-110)
Last week: 1-2 ATS (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 4-11-1 ATS (Risking 1 unit per play)
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