Allow me to plant a flag and declare the NIL payments and transfer portal era have not dampened the intensity of rivalries in college football.
Michigan kickstarted this newest trend with its fourth straight victory against Ohio State, upsetting the national championship frontrunners, 13-10, and then redecorating the 50-yard-line in Columbus. Chaos followed.
And then Florida did the same at Florida State, North Carolina State did so at North Carolina, and Arizona State opted for the trident version after an absolute blowout at Arizona. Every single instance then led to a fracas of some degree.
Fortunately, only the Ohio law enforcement was so overzealous as to pepper spray players on both teams at midfield. Yes, you read that correctly. Law enforcement officers inserted themselves into the situation and pepper sprayed players on a football field. There is a bigger conversation to be had about that foolishness.
Before pondering how much doubt should now be heaped on the Buckeyes, let’s start with that biggest overreaction from Week 14 …
College football Week 14 things you should not overreact to
Do not overreact to college football players acting like college football players.
Planting a flag or a trident at midfield of your biggest rival’s stadium is hardly an egregious offense. It is a bit of trash talk that could have been answered in the previous 60 minutes. As Michigan quarterback Davis Warren said after that chaos in the Horseshoe, “We’re going to win in your house, and we’re going to plant the flag. You should have done something about it.”
Players reacting rashly to these dramatics is also not something to get worked up over.
Even the players being most aggressive in those tussles are only grabbing at pads and slapping helmets. Notre Dame defensive tackle Rylie Mills literally punched a USC player’s facemask. Who did that hurt more?
this seems dumb pic.twitter.com/eL4h0DiSYu
— Superdrunkmark69 (@cjzer0) December 1, 2024
Until someone swings a helmet, there is absolutely no need for any hand-wringing, not in the moment by those aggressive officers, and not afterward in headlines.
We love this sport because of this type of chaos, because of these petty moments, because of years of continued oneupmanship. The NFL could never create passion like this. Embrace it.
Rivalry Week has lived up to expectations.
— Covers (@Covers) December 1, 2024
Planting the flag at half is a good way to start a scrap.pic.twitter.com/bI2IIDD6Rw
Do not overreact to Ohio State’s loss. The Buckeyes had a bad day in a sloppy game. Ryan Day’s job is not in jeopardy. And Ohio State is still a cut above in the national championship chase.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are no longer the national championship frontrunners, but that is entirely because they now know they will play an additional Playoff game en route to a possible title. Before Saturday’s loss, Ohio State had a 50-60% chance at a first-round bye. Its odds were at +275 or so because having a better than 50/50 shot at being favored in a quarterfinal should price out around +300.
And now a 100% chance of being favored in a first-round game should price out around +450, exactly what the Buckeyes’ odds are at BetMGM as of early Sunday morning.
The odds did not jump because of new information learned about Ohio State on the field in the loss to Michigan. The odds jumped because the Buckeyes’ Playoff positioning changed.
Michigan clearly has Ryan Day’s number, and both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines know it.
“The results are the results,” Day said. “As hard as it is to say, we came up short again. It’s not easy to swallow at all.”
Full Postgame Video from Columbus 〽️ #GoBlue pic.twitter.com/YE9vSPDmAH
— Michigan Football on UMGoBlue (@UMGoBlog) November 30, 2024
But 133 teams in the country have had worse days this season than Ohio State just did. The Buckeyes entered the weekend with the best red-zone conversion rate in the country, turning 84.09% of red-zone possessions into touchdowns. For one afternoon, that plummeted, only one of five red-zone possessions yielding touchdowns.
That’s it. That slight variance.
Ohio State had already faced worthwhile defenses in Oregon, Penn State, Indiana and Nebraska. Each of them could be considered Playoff-caliber. That previous red-zone conversion rate was plenty legitimate. This Saturday was just an ugly afternoon.
No, Ryan Day will not be fired. Only one head coach has split from his team with a Playoff berth still in play, and Brian Kelly is regretting that choice these days.
Ohio State lost. It will still be in the Playoff. Nothing more needs to be gleaned for now.
Douglas’ advice: Do not hear this and go jump on the Buckeyes’ futures. Gauge the Playoff path first to see if a moneyline rollover will be more profitable.
College football Week 14 things you definitely should react to
Do overreact to some coaching changes. Mack Brown’s firing, for example.
Someone will be unexpectedly fired this weekend. Gus Malzahn leaving Central Florida to be the offensive coordinator at Florida State is only a precursor.
Other coaches will change jobs. This coaching carousel may be off to a slow start, but it will turn to some extent.
The transfer portal era may not have defanged rivalries, but it will further lessen bowl-game rosters. Every coaching departure will precede significant roster turnover. If that team is in a bowl game, quickly bet against them.
Douglas’ advice: Start by fading North Carolina in whatever bowl game it ends up in. Losing to North Carolina State in the final minute was the latest example of the Tar Heels spiraling further than previously believed possible. With Brown departing, that roster is about to see an exodus.
Here’s the scene after NC State’s 35-30 win over UNC.
— Cory Smith (@RCorySmith) December 1, 2024
The Wolfpack attempted to plant the flag in the middle of the field and a fight breaks out. pic.twitter.com/PbcYo7heUt
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Do overreact to Mario Cristobal’s idiocy. If Miami misses the Playoff, and it should, the letdown for its bowl game will be laughable.
Cam Ward will almost certainly opt out of the bowl game. As will veteran receiver Xavier Restrepo. And running back Damien Martinez. Those absences alone will wreck Miami’s offense, and that offense was the only thing keeping Mario Cristobal’s incompetency at bay all season.
Even that could only hold Miami together for so long. Eventually, the Hurricanes crashed ashore.
Douglas’ advice: That was pretty simple. If the Hurricanes miss the Playoff, as they should, bet against them in any bowl game.
SYRACUSE SCOOP AND SCORE!
— Covers (@Covers) November 30, 2024
Miami is on upset alert! 👀
Live Odds:
🟠 Syracuse ML -115
🟢 Miami ML -110@BetMGM
pic.twitter.com/sCf9D9AnyJ
Do overreact to strong closes to the season. Two names come to mind: Baylor and Florida.
Both Baylor and Florida rallied this season to save their head coaches’ jobs, Dave Aranda and Billy Napier now enjoying momentum heading into 2025. Baylor not only won its last six games, it also went 6-0 against the spread, exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.3 points per game.
Florida ended the season on a three-game winning streak, emphasizing going 8-1 ATS in its last nine games and exceeding bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.1 points in those nine games, including the ATS loss.
These two rosters will stay largely intact into bowl season, and they are already overperforming.
Douglas’ advice: When bowls are announced in a week, quickly bet both Baylor and Florida.
Yes, Florida State is bad.
— Covers (@Covers) December 1, 2024
BUT HOW DID DJ LAGWAY GET OUT OF THAT SACK?!?!?
pic.twitter.com/SVO4W7XV5J
Do overreact to this winter’s latest coaching changes. They are especially costly in the transfer portal era.
Nine programs had coaching changes in mid-January or later last winter. That timing left them vulnerable to outgoing transfers despite it being too late in the cycle to stock up on incoming transfers. Their rosters were lightened in ways we do not usually have to account for.
They went 42-58-1 against the spread vs. FBS competition this season. Most notably, they went 24-40-1 ATS through the first two-thirds of the season, before the world wholly recognized how decimated those rosters were.
Douglas’ advice: Last coaching carousel featured more late-movement than usual. Five of those nine jobs opened directly because Nick Saban retired. But some job will pop up in late January. File this trend away for the beginning of the 2025 season.
Separately, hone in on Boston College in its bowl game. The Eagles went 5-0 ATS to close the season and 3-1 outright in their last five. BC exceeded bookmakers’ expectations by nine points per week in those five successes since late October; Bill O’Brien is quickly righting the debacle Jeff Hafley left behind with his belated jump to the NFL on January 31.
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