College Football Week 9 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: UNC Digs Its Heels In

OK. So, maybe trying to jump back into college football betting after being on paternity leave for six weeks isn’t the easiest thing. But I’m no quitter, and my first winning week since returning to the Triple Option is ready to bust out.

But the same can’t be said for some of the teams whose college football odds I’m highlighting this week.

Drake Maye and North Carolina may not have quit last week against Virginia, but they sure as hell didn’t show up on time. They’ll try to put an ugly loss behind them and take care of business against Georgia Tech.

Meanwhile, Southern Miss is officially on quit watch. The Golden Eagles have lost six in a row straight up and against the spread, losing those games by nearly 25 points a game. Now, they head to Appalachian State, where the Mountaineers are motivated to get a much-needed win to push them closer to bowl eligibility. 

I break down the odds for those Week 9 games and more as I bring you my best free college football picks in the Triple Option.

College football Week 9 picks

• Tulsa TT Under 17.5 (-110)
• App. State -16.5 (-110)
•  UNC -11 (-112)

Picks made on October 25. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 9 odds, picks, and predictions

Tulsa vs Southern Methodist prediction

Here's your reminder that the Southern Methodist Mustangs are no longer powered by their offense. Yes, the Pony Express is now powered by its defense. And that defense might be one of the most underrated units in the country.

The Mustangs' defense is so good because they are a veteran bunch that can do it all. Eight starters returned for 2023, meaning it was the second year in Scott Symons’ system. They can stuff the run. They shut down the pass. And they can rush the quarterback.

SMU ranks sixth in the country in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents, 14^th in opponent yards per pass, 22nd in opponent yards per rush, and 28th in sack rate. Overall, that means SMU ranks seventh in defensive success rate.

The Mustangs have been particularly dominant in their first three conference games. They’ve allowed an average of just 250.7 yards and given up a total of 26 points. That does not bode well for Tulsa.

The Golden Hurricane employ a run-first offense and it hasn’t been an overly effective one this season. Tulsa ranks 103^rd in the nation when it comes to yards per play when facing FBS opponents and 78^th in yards per carry at just 3.9 yards per attempt. And now it faces a SMU defense giving up just 3.0 yards per carry.

Tulsa has only put up more than 22 points vs. an FBS opponent once this season. That was against Temple. And the team comes into this one only putting up a combined 27 points in back-to-back losses to Rice and FAU.

This Mustangs defense will have the Golden Hurricane offensive coaches in fits during this matchup. Southern Methodist hasn’t allowed more than 16 points to a non-Big 12 team. I’m betting Tulsa won’t be the first to surpass that number.

PICK: Tulsa team total Under 17.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Southern Miss vs Appalachian State prediction

Right off the bat: This is a big fade of Southern Miss.

To put it nicely, the Golden Eagles looked, um, disinterested in last week’s 55-3 beatdown handed to them by South Alabama.

The loss was the Golden Eagles' sixth in a row straight up and against the spread. They have an average margin of defeat of 24.5 points during that stretch. Their lone win of the season came against FCS Alcorn State. 

On offense, they rank 123rd in yards per play vs. FBS opponents, and on defense, they rank 130th in opponent yards per play. Overall, they rank 132 (out of 133 FBS) in EPA margin.

Yes, it’s official: Southern Miss is on quit watch.

And it feels like the Golden Eagles are being thrown to the wolves as they travel to Boone, North Carolina to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers.

Now, this season hasn’t exactly gone to plan for App State either. After a solid 2-1 start to the season, which saw the Mountaineers almost knock off North Carolina, they've dropped three of their last four games going 0-3-1 ATS. However, all three of those losses have come by a combined 13 points. And this is about as clear-cut a “get right” spot as there can be.

The Mountaineers will lean on quarterback Joey Aguilar and their passing game in this one. Aguilar has thrown for 1,782 yards with 16 touchdowns compared to five interceptions. He leads a passing offense that ranks a respectable 49th in EPA/Pass and 25th in success rate.

This means App State shouldn’t have much of a problem moving the ball through the air vs. a Southern Miss squad that ranks 132nd in opponent yards per pass attempt and 110th in defensive success rate against the pass.

The Mountaineers and their fans have become accustomed to getting to bowl games and a win to even their record at 4-4 is a must. They’ll be motivated to put on a good performance in front of the home crowd. The Golden Eagles? Not so much.

PICK: Appalachian State -16.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

North Carolina vs Georgia Tech prediction

Talk about “get-right” spots. Maybe no one in the country needs a “get-right” spot more this week than the North Carolina Tar Heels. 

Mack Brown had the Tar Heels playing arguably the best football since his return to Chapel Hill. UNC was crushing everything in its path on its way to a perfect 6-0 record, which included wins over South Carolina and Miami. And Drake Maye was looking every bit the part of a future top pick in the NFL Draft. 

Then it all came crashing down when North Carolina traveled to Virginia last week. The Tar Heels played an inexplicably bad game against what is frankly, a terrible Cavaliers team.

Virginia’s only win previously was against FCS William & Mary. The Cavs were also underdogs against James Madison, a program only in its second year of FBS play.

But North Carolina is talented enough and well-coached enough to bounce back quickly and this week’s matchup against Georgia Tech provides the perfect opportunity.

The Yellow Jackets were flying high following their shocking upset of Miami, but had a predictable letdown spot the next week, allowing a mediocre-at-best Boston College team to put up 38 points in a 38-23 loss. And that’s been the story for Georgia Tech. The defense has been downright bad. 

The Yellow Jackets rank 122nd in opponent yards per play when facing FBS opponents and are 109th in opponent yards per attempt. Georgia Tech also regularly gets gashed on the ground giving up 5.4 yards per carry which ranks 125th in the nation. Overall, the team ranks 122nd in defensive success rate. Not great, Bob.

Brown should have his team motivated for this matchup. The Tar Heels still have a great shot of getting to the ACC Championship game. But that means no more slipups the rest of the way. I’m betting they get back on track here and win this one by two touchdowns.

PICK: North Carolina -11 (-112 at DraftKings)

Week 9 odds and upcoming games

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