Two Mid-American Conference squads still fighting for a bowl berth will collide this evening when the Ball State Cardinals visit the Buffalo Bulls.
Even with the Cardinals sitting at just three wins, our Ball State vs. Buffalo prediction focuses on a pair of defenses that can’t seem to stop anyone. Read our college football picks below for more on this Tuesday, November 12 clash.
Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from UB Stadium in Buffalo, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.
Ball State vs Buffalo prediction and best bet
My best bet
Over 52.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
The Ball State Cardinals are coming off a 27-21 loss to Miami (OH), their second loss in the last three weeks. Miami (OH) is a Bottom-3 scoring team in the conference, but bleeding points has been a consistent theme for Ball State.
The Cardinals are 11th in scoring defense in the MAC, allowing 38.9 points per contest. Their defense is a turnstile at best, surrendering 461.3 yards per game, 130th in college football, and they’re dead last in yards per play (7.2). It’s something they’ll need to improve if they are to run the regular-season table and clinch a bowl bid.
The opposition has had its way with them, running for nearly 170 yards per game while throwing for 291.9 per contest, another Bottom-5 mark in the nation.
The Bulls are on the upswing, though, after dumping Akron 41-30 to bring them within a win of postseason football. The ground game churned out 180 yards and three touchdowns on a decent 4.1 yards per carry, while quarterback C.J. Ogbonna threw for 210 yards and a pair of scores.
How Buffalo’s defense holds up against Ball State will likely determine the winner. The Bulls are still getting gashed for 408.7 yards per game, and teams are throwing for 255.4 yards against — both outside the Top 100.
Ball State is also an impressive 6-3 against the spread this season, which should raise some flags in predicting a runaway Buffalo cover. Instead, with two of the bottom-ranked MAC defenses, the total seems more inviting. The Cardinals sit at 7-1-1 O/U this year, while Buffalo has cashed the Over in five straight games.
Ball State vs Buffalo same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 52.5
Al-Jay Henderson Over 85.5 rushing yards
C.J. Ogbanna anytime touchdown
Al-Jay Henderson is coming off one of his best games of the season, running 18 times for 107 yards and a score in Buffalo’s win over Akron.
Meanwhile, Bulls quarterback C.J. Ogbonna is coming off his best all-around game of the year. His 210 yards passing was his third-highest total — he matched his season-best with two TD passes — and he rushed for a season-high 63 yards and a TD.
Ogbonna’s success should carry over against Ball State's poor run defense that's allowed 17 rushing scores. I like him to find paydirt in back-to-back contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Ball State vs Buffalo odds
Ball State vs Buffalo live odds
Ball State vs Buffalo opening odds
- Ball State vs. Buffalo spread: Buffalo -5.5
- Ball State vs. Buffalo moneyline: Ball State +170, Buffalo -205
- Ball State vs. Buffalo Over/Under: 53
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Ball State vs Buffalo spread and Over/Under analysis
- Ball State is 5-2 ATS as underdogs of six or more points.
- Buffalo is 3-1 ATS in its last four home games.
- The Cardinals have cashed the Over in six of their last eight games.
Ball State vs Buffalo betting trend to know
The Bulls have been the moneyline favorites twice this season, winning both. Find more college football betting trends for Ball State vs Buffalo.
Ball State vs Buffalo game info
| Location: | UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-12, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBSSN |
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