Football fans looking to scratch that itch get a festive bowl game on Christmas Eve as the South Florida Bulls face the San Jose State Spartans in the Hawaii Bowl.
Year 2 of the Alex Golesh era didn’t quite go as planned, but the Bulls can change the narrative a bit with a strong finale. SJSU, meanwhile, surpassed expectations in Year 1 under Ken Niumatalolo and is looking to cap an impressive campaign.
My South Florida vs. San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, December 24 are calling for a holiday shootout at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN live from the Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex in Honolulu.
South Florida vs San Jose State prediction and best bet
Who will win South Florida vs San Jose State?
The San Jose State Spartans will win the Hawaii Bowl and cap a terrific inaugural year under Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans have the better record and the better metrics, and they’re familiar with this venue since Hawaii plays in the Mountain West. Neither team has a particularly impressive resume (zero combined wins over bowl teams), but SJSU has the better wins and losses to my eyes.
My best bet
Over 63.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This will be an intriguing game between two strong Group of 5 teams without many transfer portal defections or opt-outs.
Both teams like to play fast — the South Florida Bulls lead the nation in plays per minute (2.86), while the San Jose State Spartans are ninth (2.54). With all of that tempo, there should be plenty of snaps to look forward to on Christmas Eve. More plays generally means more yardage and more points, so sign me up for an Over on the island.
While the transfers are limited, there are a few that will impact both defenses.
SJSU will be without both starting corners DJ Harvey and Michael Dansby, leaving sixth-year senior Amir Wallace and redshirt junior Jalen Bainer as the starters. USF will not have the services of starting safety Tawfiq Byard or starting defensive tackle Doug Blue-Eli.
Harvey’s 89.8 coverage grade (per PFF) is the second-highest of any player in the Mountain West, so it’ll be a big question mark in regards to how the Spartans hold up in coverage. They don’t create much pressure on the passer (103rd in pass rush grade), so there should be some opportunities in the air for USF quarterback Bryce Archie.
The Bulls struggled offensively to start the year, and part of the blame is due to last year’s starting quarterback, Byrum Brown, being both injured and ineffective. Archie and this offense found their groove to end the year, however, scoring at least 28 points in five of its last six games while averaging 39.3 ppg.
SJSU will be without star wide receiver Nick Nash and that’s a big blow considering the quarterback-turned-star wideout leads the nation in receiving yards (1,382) and touchdowns (16). Still, the Spartans will hold some advantages when they have the ball.
USF excels in shutting down the run (21st in EPA per rush, 10th in rushing success rate) but struggles in coverage (106th in EPA per pass, 110th in passing explosiveness). SJSU doesn’t run the ball (132nd in rush rate, 134th in EPA per rush) but is deadly in the air (third in pass rate, 22nd in EPA per pass).
The passing attack shouldn’t fall off a cliff without Nash, especially with Justin Lockhart (973 yards, five touchdowns) ready to cross the 1,000-yard mark. This is an advantageous matchup and SJSU should find the end zone.
Both teams will operate with pace in a game that should see plenty of points. SJSU can take advantage of USF’s faulty secondary even without Nash. On the flip side, the Bulls’ offense is clicking and averaged nearly 40 points over the second half of the season.
South Florida vs San Jose State same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 63.5
SJSU -3.5
The matchups work out very well in favor of SJSU, so I’m laying the points with the Spartans.
What does USF prefer to do offensively? Run the ball — the Bulls rank 28th in EPA per rush and third in rushing explosiveness. What does SJSU do well defensively? Stop the run — the Spartans check in at 22nd in EPA per rush and 14th in rushing explosiveness.
SJSU is strong up front (31st in line yards, 25th in stuff rate) and is unaffected there in the portal or due to opt-outs, so this will remain a strength and will be needed in this matchup.
When the Spartans have the ball, they should be able to exploit a poor USF secondary. Hence the matchups working out on both sides of the ball.
SJSU is also more impressive from a metrics perspective overall, ranking 67th in EPA per play on offense and 26th on defense. USF ranks 78th on offense and 74th on defense and did not beat a winning team all year.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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South Florida vs San Jose State odds
South Florida vs San Jose State live odds
South Florida vs San Jose State opening odds
- South Florida vs. San Jose State spread: San Jose State -2.5
- South Florida vs. San Jose State moneyline: South Florida +115, San Jose State -135
- South Florida vs. San Jose State Over/Under: 62.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
South Florida vs San Jose State spread and Over/Under analysis
- SJSU has covered the 1Q spread in seven of its last 11 games. That number currently sits at -0.5 (-115) at BetMGM.
- USF has only hit the 1H moneyline in two of its last nine games. If you want to take advantage of the Bulls’ propensity for slow starts, SJSU’s 1H moneyline is -150 at BetMGM.
- USF is 4-1 O/U in its last five games played away from home.
South Florida vs San Jose State betting trend to know
South Florida is 5-1 O/U in its last six games. Find more college football betting trends for South Florida vs San Jose State.
How to watch South Florida vs San Jose State game info
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Tuesday, 12-24-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
South Florida vs San Jose State latest injuries
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South Florida vs San Jose State weather
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