There are more FBS games this weekend than any other in history, literally. With 59 FBS teams playing FCS teams and 37 FBS vs. FBS matchups, the 2024 college football season is starting with 96 games this weekend. More than ever, pick your spots.
You do not need to bet all 96 games. You do not need to even bet all 37 FBS vs. FBS games. These lines have been available since early June. They have been battered into shape. There is less value in the market this weekend than any other all season. And remember, this will be the longest college football season ever.
You have time when it comes to college football picks.
There are, however, a few spots still worth focusing on in Week 1, including a pair of plays involving teams from the Lone Star State.
NCAAF Best Bets for Week 1
- Fresno State at Michigan Under 45.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Texas -31.5 vs. Colorado State (-112 at FanDuel)
- Eastern Michigan at UMass Under 50 (-110 at BetMGM)
- UTSA team total Over 37.5 points vs. Kennesaw State (-115 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 8-29. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week
Fresno State at Michigan Under 45.5
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
It has been thoroughly discussed how much the Michigan Wolverines lost from last year’s national championship team. They return only one offensive starter and that is, simply enough, less than ideal. Yet the Wolverines remain a Top-10 team as Jim Harbaugh had been recruiting well for a few years before he dipped to the NFL.
It should be more discussed how much Michigan kept on defense from last year’s national championship team. In truth more than on paper, it returns a full defensive line. All-American cornerback Will Johnson is back with senior safety Makari Paige. There is plenty of reason to expect this to still be a Top-5 defense, which spells trouble for the Fresno State Bulldogs offense.
Offensively, what the Wolverines kept is an ethos, along with “College Football 25” cover model running back Donovan Edwards. Former offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Sherrone Moore, now Michigan’s head coach, is going to remain devoted to the run. In his three games standing in Harbaugh’s shoes to end last regular season, Moore called 130 rushes compared to 52 passes.
Sure, some of that was the overall offensive design, but that may be only further emphasized with junior Alex Orji behind center. To date, he is more a rusher than a passer. It may take time before he is trusted with the full offense.
The greatest issue for the Wolverines, the item that cements this Under thought, is that their offense will inevitably regress in the red zone. Some of that is due to the personnel losses. Blake Corum was a goal-line guarantee. J.J. McCarthy made few mistakes. Replacing both of them along with an entire offensive line was always going to spell a step back where it matters most. But beyond that, Michigan ranked No. 12 in the country in converting quality drives. Losing Corum will lower that rate.
The Wolverines will run this game down, removing stress from Orji’s shoulders in his starting debut. But Michigan will not be as efficient near the end zone as it once was. A botched opportunity or two will be all it takes to fall short of this total.
Texas -31.5 vs. Colorado State
Best odds: -112 at FanDuel
Have you ever heard of a lookahead moment in Week 1? What about a two-week lookahead moment in Week 1? The premise should be disputed on sight, but think back to last year’s Colorado State Rams at Colorado Buffaloes game.
Rams head coach Jay Norvell was the first head coach in 2023 to step into the public ring with Deion Sanders, “When I talk to grownups, I take my hat and my glasses off. That’s what my mother taught me.” Prime Time responded by telling his players this in-state rivalry was now “personal.”
Norvell kept going. “I told our coaches and players this is bigger than a bowl game. It’s more important in a lot of ways.”
Colorado State knocked Buffaloes star cornerback/receiver Travis Hunter — hey, another “College Football 25” cover model — out for a month with a lacerated liver, arguably on a dirty play. Colorado still won, 43-35, in a dramatic double-overtime game.
Logic says the Rams have spent an undue amount of time this preseason thinking about that loss and the Buffaloes’ visit in two weeks. They have already overlooked next week’s FCS foe, Northern Colorado, and are awaiting revenge on the Buffaloes.
Colorado State may want to play the Texas Longhorns competitively, but everyone should know better. This spread could approach -40 and it would still be within the analytics’ arguments.
Meanwhile, the Longhorns head to Michigan next week. So this is a lookahead for them, too, right? Yes, but with this talent advantage, the lookahead matters much less.
Furthermore, Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian generally does not know how to call a game conservatively. He might instead choose to put some candy on tape for the Wolverines to worry about. Letting quarterback Quinn Ewers — a third “College Football 25” cover model — showcase his deep ball could cost Michigan some practice time this week.
The Longhorns’ second string would win this game by three touchdowns, which should quell any backdoor-cover worries.
Eastern Michigan at UMass Under 50
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
Yours truly went into recording of “College Football 134” — the Covers.com college football podcast — on Tuesday with the intention of giving out only the Eastern Michigan Eagles moneyline in this game. But while discussing it, the moment inspired a bet on the Under, as well.
College Football 134, Week 1 Best Bets and Preview via @Covers -- up on your podcast platforms.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) August 28, 2024
Dig in, enjoy @Covers_Caley going into the biggest games while I dabble with EMU, UNLV and Jacksonville St.
Spotify: https://t.co/cnq59cSTF8
iHeart: https://t.co/cnq59cSTF8
The moneyline and the Under thoughts coincide. The Eagles return four starters among a defensive front seven that should cause worry for the UMass Minutemen. If UMass struggles on the ground, its offense may be doomed. The rushing game was the least bad part of the Minutemen last season, but they now lost running back Kay’Ron Lynch-Adams to Michigan State and return only two starting offensive linemen.
That offense is going to struggle, and Eastern Michigan has never been known for offensive fireworks. That offense, in fact, was an anchor last season. Yet the Eagles found a bowl game because head coach Chris Creighton coaches up a physical brand of football, one that considers the whistle only a guideline. Eight of Eastern Michigan’s 11 regular-season games against FBS opponents fell short of this total, including their first seven games. Five of those seven went Under their respective totals. It’s who the Eagles are.
UTSA team total Over 37.5 points vs. Kennesaw State
Best odds: -115 at DraftKings
It may be hard to believe in a bet on an offense replacing its best all-time player in quarterback Frank Harris, along with two starting offensive linemen, but the UTSA Road Runners should have a strong enough run game to lean on to start this season, led by junior Kevorian Barnes.
Focusing on the run against the Kennesaw State Owls will make an abundance of sense as the Owls make the transition up to the FBS from the FCS. Their roster is simply not up for this grind yet, and it will cost them more and more as the season progresses. Out of the gates, the light front will get pushed around by the Road Runners.
Do not be surprised by faith in UTSA’s physicality. This has become one of the best Group of Five programs under head coach Jeff Traylor. He has built the program on Texas recruiting.
Lastly, Kennesaw State’s offense will struggle this year. It is a young offensive line trying to pave the way for an offense that ran the ball on 68.2% of its snaps last season. This offense has tried to transition out of the triple-option by relying on zone reads and/or run-pass options. The offensive line needs to be perfectly in sync to make those playcalls work. It will not be in sync in September.
A bounty of three-and-outs for the Owls' offense will tire out its thin defense, helping UTSA run up this score even without Harris.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
