The college football gambling season has distinct periods. In early September, trust your preseason priors and find value where you disagree with the overall market. In November, the best bets come from spotting teams that have quit on their season before the broader world notices them.
In the back half of September — and though Saturday’s date may be only Sept. 14, we are in in the back half of September in college football terms — the key to making college football picks is recognizing when the market fails to properly react.
We may have only two-to-three games of data, but this is a sport with only 12 guaranteed games of data in a season, often 11 if you are one to discount most action against FCS teams. Really, just 10 since that final data point influences very few gambling opportunities.
Reactions need to come from small samples, not overreactions — Devaluing Kansas to just -7 against UNLV on Friday night was a market overreaction — We have learned plenty about these teams, certainly at the extremes of the sport. That is where value is found in Week 3. That is how this column bounces back from a dreadful 0-4 last week, dropping the season tally to 3-5 and down 2.46 units.
NCAAF Best Bets for Week 3
- Missouri -15.5 (-112 at BetRivers)
- Coastal Carolina -17.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- UCF -2 (-110 at DraftKings)
- Eastern Michigan -2 (-110 at Caesars)
- Miami (OH) ML (+142 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 9-12. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week
Missouri -15.5 vs. 
Boston College
Best odds: -112 at BetRivers
At the start of the week, when the Missouri Tigers opened as 15-point favorites against the Boston College Eagles, yours truly assumed the game was in Chestnut Hill. As bets were placed Sunday afternoon, they were logged as if Boston College was the home team.
It was not until late Monday night that the mistake was recognized. At that point, there was only one choice: Bet even more on Missouri.
A 15-point spread — okay, the initial bet was at -15.5, unable to act fast enough to catch that -15 — seemed small for a Tigers road game, but not outlandishly small. Just a point or two, though those would be key numbers.
A 15.5 or 16-point spread for Missouri at home … this line might be wrong by five points, three of those being key numbers.
The Tigers enjoy a balanced offense, but they lean on the ground game more than the air. This may be the rare team that really does "establish the run" to create space for the passing game.
Boston College is getting a pile of credit for stalling Florida State’s rushing offense two weeks ago, but what have we seen to put stock in that actually being an accomplishment? Setting this line at anything below 20 points is giving the Eagles credit like they beat an undervalued Seminoles’ offense, not what is probably an overvalued one.
Betting Missouri at any number south of -20 may be our last chance to fade Florida State, with Boston College the proxy.
This week, those nine ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 9, 2024
Arizona: +7 at Kansas St. on Friday.
Michigan: -22.5 v. Arkansas St.
Boston College: +16.5 at Missouri
Buffalo: -4.5 v. UMass
Washington: -4 v. Wazzu in Seattle.
Georgia St: +10 v. Vanderbilt
San Jose St: -19 v. Kennesaw St
UCLA: +2.5 v. Indiana https://t.co/NaUR9ce9bS
Coastal Carolina -17.5 at 
Temple
Best odds: -110 at FanDuel
It’s not like anyone ever believed in the Temple Owls.
ESPN.com’s SP+ ratings are not the be-all, end-all in advanced metrics, but they are a standard to use to give continuing conversations context. Those preseason numbers considered Temple the No. 132 team in the country, 21.9 points worse than the average squad.
They now look at Temple as the worst team in the country — No. 134, and yes, that is why the Covers.com college football podcast is so aptly named “College Football 134” — and the Owls look to be 28.4 points worse than the average team.
And that is not reacting strongly enough to how horrendous Temple is. Oklahoma wiping the floor with the Owls was one thing, even if the Sooners’ offensive line is not yet understood to be the weakness it will be in nine days, but falling behind Navy 38-3? That defies excuses. That is just a bad football team.
Navy averaged 5.8 yards per rush last weekend. So what? That’s what Navy does.
Well, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers like to run the ball, ranking in the Top 20 in the country, using the rush to then enjoy an explosive passing game.
The Chanticleers offense is too complex and efficient for this wretched Temple team to stand a chance. The only worry with this spread is a backdoor touchdown getting the Owls back within 17 points. Given an argument could be made this spread should be in the range of -24, that backdoor touchdown would have to show up only after Temple has played to the best of its ability in the first place.
UCF -2 at 
TCU
Best odds: -110 at DraftKings
More than the offense, the TCU Horned Frogs defense remains an unknown heading into this matchup with a high-octane approach from the UCF Knights offense. TCU held Stanford to 27 points and 286 total yards in Week 1, but the Cardinal are still trying to restock their roster from the end of the David Shaw era. Praising TCU for halting that run-heavy offense is not lofty praise.
The Knights have a genuinely worrying run-heavy offense, and Gus Malzahn’s usual preferences are burgeoned by the addition of quarterback KJ Jefferson.
Central Florida has yet to run against a worthwhile foe — all kinds of disrespect intended to Sam Houston State — but the world knows what Malzahn intends, and the world knows what Malzahn can do with a physical, dual-threat quarterback.
TCU opened as a two-point home favorite here. One can argue with relative ease that moving to +2 is hardly a big move, since only 0 in that range is considered a notable number. The counterargument would be, you’re right, the line should move further.
Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast
Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below:
Eastern Michigan -2 vs. 
Jacksonville State
Best odds: -110 at Caesars
Raise your hand if you are 2-0 against the spread this season. Oh, hi Eastern Michigan.
Raise your hand if you are 0-2 against the spread this season. Oh, hi Jacksonville State.
Raise your hand if you have had to replace the vast majority of your 2023 roster. Okay, that’s both of you.
Keep your hand raised if you had overall program continuity to make those replacements with three- and four-year in-house players. Hi Eagles.
Now, how about if the jump to the FBS level is catching up to you in terms of roster turnover and lack of depth? Tough break, Gamecocks.
That last piece will soon become a loud and clear reality. Jacksonville State is simply shorthanded and will remain so for another two to three seasons. This is the cost of transitioning to the FBS, no matter how well your first season went. This payment comes due.
Eastern Michigan is the exact wrong team to face when already facing depth concerns. The Eagles may be the most physical team in the MAC, a version of terrifying applause that has kept opponents up at night.
Both teams are, in a word, bad, but Eastern Michigan in its home opener against a team dependent on a just-slightly-worse-than-average rush game should always draw your betting attention, especially when the Eagles are such short favorites.
Miami (OH) moneyline vs. 
Cincinnati
Best odds: +142 at DraftKings
Congratulations Cincinnati Bearcats, you jumped out to a 27-6 lead against Pittsburgh. Yes, the same Pittsburgh that fought harder to beat Kent State than the final score indicates. And that Kent State team has since been eviscerated by FCS-level St. Francis (PA), far from the upper reaches of the FCS.
Of course, Cincinnati then blew that lead to Pitt, losing 28-27.
Incompetence reared its ugly head, and there is no team you should less want to show incompetence to than Chuck Martin’s Miami (OH) RedHawks.
A conservative thought may be to take Miami (OH) as a 3.5-point underdog (-110 at DraftKings), but why be conservative when the RedHawks may have both the better offense and defense? The offenses may be about equal, in all sincerity, but Miami’s defense is leaps and bounds better.
Furthermore, Martin wants to lean on the run until he turns loose sixth-year quarterback Brett Gabbert. Returning four starting offensive linemen and your leading rusher creates that preference. Cincinnati’s defense is terrible at stopping the run.
The RedHawks will bleed this clock, perhaps creating some intrigue in the Under 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM). They will deprive the Bearcats of enough possessions to create multiple scoring chances. A shorter game will only further confidence in this aggressive moneyline play.
Looking for more college football picks and predictions ahead of kickoff? Check out our college football Week 3 parlay picks and college football Week 3 ATS picks.
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