Gambling 101: Believe in the habits that got you here, even amid a two-week lull. Yes, let’s own that off the top. The last two weeks of results here have been atrocious. The favorite child is disappointing everyone.
But in the last two years of spot duty with a “Best Bets” column, my college football picks yielded positive results. A couple of bad weeks need not inspire any worry. As Sam Hinkie once wrote, take the longest view in the room.
The want is to make money each week, but the most important thing is making the money across the season. Trusting years of approach is the best way to find that black ink in the ledger by December.
Put last week’s 1-4 showing for a loss of 3.32 units (4-9, -5.78 on the year) in the past. We march toward December’s black ink...
NCAAF Best Bets for Week 4
- Indiana 1H (-118 at FanDuel)
- Purdue/Oregon State u51 (-110 at Caesars)
- Iowa/Minnesota u35.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Cal ML (+115 at Caesars)
Picks made on 9-19. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
Douglas Farmer’s best college football bets this week
Indiana 1H -16.5 vs. Charlotte
Best odds: -118 at FanDuel
Indiana faced significantly stouter competition last week, as UCLA rates about 19 points better than the 49ers. Charlotte is that bad, entering Week 4 as a bottom-10 team in the country. Yet in that first half, the Hoosiers scored three touchdowns in the Rose Bowl.
The scores were not the most encouraging piece of Indiana’s offense early last week. A failure was. The Hoosiers went for a fourth-and-six on the plus-33-yard line, an aggressive approach that should lead anyone paying attention to upgrade an offense’s expected output.
So, that was four drives against UCLA, three of them scoring and the fourth proving aggression.
Meanwhile, Charlotte needed a comeback for a one-point win against FCS-level Gardner-Webb. The Runnin’ Bulldogs are a decent FCS team, better than FBS counterparts Temple, Kennesaw State and Kent State, but struggling so mightily was still an indictment of the 49ers. It may be only Year Two under Biff Poggi, but the next sign of program growth will be the first.
The Hoosiers are at home, their schedule demands no lookahead worry, and they clearly have a humming offense that Curt Cignetti turns loose out of the gates.
Get more CFB picks from the College Football 134 podcast
Join Douglas, and co-host Andrew Caley, on the College Football 134 podcast, published every Tuesday and live on the Covers YouTube channel every Saturday at 9 a.m.
Check out the latest Tuesday episode below, when this Indiana bet was still available at -15.5. There is value in listening quickly on Tuesday evenings, before many lines move toward the edge Douglas and/or Andrew found:
Purdue vs. 
Oregon State Under 51
Best odds: -110 at Caesars
It was not just that Purdue’s offense played terribly against Notre Dame last weekend. It was the thorough step-by-step guide the Irish showed of how to flummox Boilermakers quarterback Hudson Card. The Irish blitzed the former Texas quarterback 14 times. On those dropbacks, he went 3-of-10 for 12 yards and was sacked four times for a total loss of 40 yards. Oh, and he threw two interceptions.
Card finished the day 11-of-24 for 124 yards and a touchdown. So there were 28 total dropbacks. When he was flustered, he netted a loss of 28 yards and two turnovers. When he had time, he went 8-of-14 for 112 yards and a touchdown.
Some of how Notre Dame so bothered Card was a result of the Irish offense quickly staking a lead, meaning the defense pretty soon knew Purdue needed to throw the ball. Oregon State may not have that luxury, but the Beavers’ defensive line should not need much help to at least somewhat bother Card. At least somewhat.
That Purdue weakness is why the Boilermakers run so often, No. 13 in the country in rushing more than game state expects. The problem is, their running attack is as bad as the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, Oregon State’s offense grades out as middling, in no small part because of 14 fourth-quarter points against San Diego State. Praising that should not overlook the reality that the Beavers had just seven points through three quarters against a middling defense, not to mention the Aztecs’ repeated offensive failures kept putting the ball into Oregon State’s hands.
Expecting 50 points out of these two offenses, particularly when the world now has the blueprint to ruining Purdue’s gameplan, is foolish in every regard.
Iowa vs. 
Minnesota Under 35.5
Best odds: -105 at BetMGM
Let's start with ESPN's SP+ ratings, where Iowa’s defense ranks No. 2 (behind only Ohio State’s), and its offense sits at No. 98. That offense is actually playing less efficiently than it did with Brian Ferentz calling plays last season, finishing 2023 at No. 67.
It can *always* get worse. https://t.co/h9l3GNCKQW
— parker fleming (@statsowar) February 1, 2024
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense ranks No. 12 in those ratings, while its offense ranks 81st.
Not sold yet? This total is too low for you to doubt? Fine, be that way. A favorite child knows to persist in an argument when certainly correct.
Iowa’s offense ranks No. 82 in expected points added per snap (EPA) at an average of -0.033, per cfb-graphs via collegefootballinsiders.com. To put that another way, the Hawkeyes generally lower their rate of a drive succeeding with each snap. However, their defense ranks No. 44, taking an average of 0.047 points off an opponents’ expected score with each snap.
Minnesota’s disparity is even wider.
Still not convinced? Okay okay, let’s rattle off a few more facts.
In 2023, these two teams scored 22 points in this matchup. In 2022, they got to 23. Four of their last five meetings have gone Under their totals, as have six of their last eight.
This total may need to approach 30 before the Over would have value.
Cal moneyline at Florida State
Best odds: +115 at Caesars
As our friend Parker Fleming likes to say, there is only one truth in college football: It can always get worse.
Welcome, Florida State.
We have yet to see a physical pride from the Seminoles, their record of 0-3 somewhat understating how lifeless the last couple weeks have become. They now face a Cal team that loves to fluster a quarterback, and we have seen just how much that wrecks DJ Uiagalelei’s vision downfield. That was most evident on the final few possessions of Memphis’s upset of Florida State on Saturday.
After the Tigers took a 20-3 lead to start the second half, they had one defensive task in mind: Frustrate Uiagalelei. So they blitzed, making sure he also did not have time to make a worthwhile read.
On Florida State’s final two possessions, both when trailing by eight and with less than three minutes remaining, regularly sending six defenders after Uiagalelei resulted in 11 plays gaining 25 total yards. Most defenses would revert to a prevent approach in that moment.
Not Memphis, not when knowing the key to short-circuiting all the Seminoles’ hopes was to hurry up Uiagalelei.
Enter a prototypical Justin Wilcox defense. It works best against the pass these days, ranking No. 22 in dropback success rate against and No. 35 in EPA per dropback against. Attempt to pass against the Bears and the most likely result is falling behind the chains.
The Bears have already gone on the road and upset a Power Four opponent this season, winning as 11.5-point underdogs at Auburn two weeks ago. There is no reason to doubt their ability to do it again.
Not intended for use in MA.
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