Louisville wraps up its ACC schedule as it welcomes fellow conference foe Pittsburgh to town on Saturday afternoon.
The Cardinals were the victim of perhaps one of the more embarrassing losses of the season last week when they were beaten as 21-point favorites by Stanford.
They'll look to pick themselves up against a Pittsburgh team coming off a close loss against Clemson, but my Pittsburgh vs. Louisville predictions and college football picks for November 23 don't think it'll be an easy task.
Pittsburgh vs Louisville prediction and best bet
My best bet
Pittsburgh +8.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
While I expect Louisville to win this game, it will take work. That's because nothing has come easily for this team this season.
Oddly enough, its lone cover in nearly two months came against one of the best teams on its schedule when it won outright at Clemson. But based on what we've seen this season, it's hard to argue that it's not more of an outlier than an expectation.
I grabbed the 8.5-point spread on Pittsburgh and made it my best bet. My projections made this number 5.5.
It's hard to trust Louisville to put together a complete effort for 60 minutes and cover a touchdown-plus spread against anyone in the conference, let alone a Pittsburgh team that has been competitive with the best in the ACC. We now have nearly an entire season of data showing this, but beyond that, there are some general concerns about this matchup for the Cardinals. Let's focus on one side of the ball.
Louisville's defense has been very Jekyll-and-Hyde this season, but it's consistently been quite average for most of the year. Most teams have been able to run the ball against it, and that presents an issue when facing the Panthers because that's what they want to do: be a smashmouth football team.
Louisville ranks 72nd in the defensive in EPA per rush. That's not terrible, but it's not good. However, I'd suspect it will be an issue against what has been a Top 10 rushing offense led by Desmond Reid, who is averaging over five yards per carry. His versatile running style also fits the profile of backs that the Cardinals have needed help slowing down.
For me, that's enough to make Pittsburgh a play here.
Louisville will get its fair share of explosive plays against a Pittsburgh defense that is solid but could be better. One of the nation's best wide receivers, Ja'Corey Brooks, will make a few big catches that likely tilt the game toward Louisville. However, more is needed to cover this spread.
Pittsburgh should be able to control the pacing of this game and have an opportunity to win it late with a dominant rushing attack that gets the better of a defensive front four that has underperformed this season for Louisville.
Pittsburgh vs Louisville same-game parlay (SGP)
Pittsburgh +8.5
Under 57.5
With few options in the same-game parlay market for this one, I've elected to pair the Under with my best bet.
While I expressed concerns about the Louisville defense here, most of those concerns involve a script of Pittsburgh running the ball and chewing the clock. That also should be the point of attack for Louisville overall, but especially if it's trying to salt away a victory late.
I made the number 56.5 and think a lower-scoring game is correlated heavily with Pitt covering.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Pittsburgh vs Louisville odds
Pittsburgh vs Louisville live odds
Pittsburgh vs Louisville opening odds
- Pittsburgh vs. Louisville spread: Louisville -8.5
- Pittsburgh vs. Louisville moneyline: Pittsburgh +240, Louisville -300
- Pittsburgh vs. Louisville Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Pittsburgh vs Louisville spread and Over/Under analysis
- Pittsburgh has covered seven of its last ten games and recently broke an ATS two-game loss streak last week against Clemson.
- The Over has been profitable when the Cardinals hit the field, and it went that direction in seven of the last 10 games.
- Louisville hasn't played well for a bit now and has just one cover over its last seven games – an upset against Clemson.
Pittsburgh vs Louisville betting trend to know
Louisville has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Pittsburgh vs Louisville.
Pittsburgh vs Louisville game info
| Location: | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-23, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
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