The Iowa Hawkeyes are the betting favorites when they welcome Big Ten West conference rivals, the Purdue Boilermakers to Kinnick Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Purdue enters Saturday fresh from a 44-19 home victory over Illinois, while Iowa defeated Michigan State 26-16 at home to secure its first conference victory.
Can the Boilermakers spoil the Hawkeyes' homecoming celebrations? Please join us as we share our best college football odds with some free college football picks and predictions for Purdue and Iowa on Saturday, October 7.
Purdue vs Iowa best odds
Purdue vs Iowa picks and predictions
Iowa suffered a huge setback when starting QB Cade McNamara was lost for the season with a torn ACL, and the Hawkeyes will again flounder on offense.
Iowa was already having difficulties scoring, and sophomore QB Deacon Hill will make his first start against a Boilermakers defense averaging 3.4 sacks per game.
Hill hasn’t played much this season, but he’s completed just 43% of his passes for 164 yards with a TD pass and one interception when he has. Purdue has five interceptions, and the additional pressure of a stout Boilermaker defensive line could produce a turnover or two.
The Hawkeyes are 13th in rushing in the conference, facing a Boilermakers defense allowing the 11th most rushing yards per game. That’s where Iowa will do its best work on a windy Saturday, and we should expect the Hawkeyes to grind it out on the ground, keep the clock moving, and out of the hands of Purdue QB Hudson Card.
Card leads the Big Ten in completions but has thrown five TD passes with three interceptions. Wideout Deion Burks is one of two Boilermakers with over 300 receiving yards, and he leads the group with four receiving TDs. Iowa won’t put up much of a pass rush, but they are fifth in the conference in passing yards allowed but have allowed seven TD passes.
The Iowa rushing defense is 11th in the conference, meeting the eighth-best Purdue ground game. The one-two punch of RBs Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Mokobee has rambled for 567 rushing yards with eight TDs. The pair will be difficult for Iowa to contain, and the Boilermakers should be able to move the ball a bit, which will keep the clock moving.
Finally, the forecast calls for a windy day, affecting the total. We should expect to see both defenses repel the other groups' offensive strengths enough times for this contest to end Under the total.
My best bet: Under 39 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Purdue vs Iowa same-game parlay
Under 39
Iowa -2.5
In addition to the Under on the game total, I also believe Iowa will cover the 2.5-point spread at home.
The wind will affect Card more than it will Hill and the Hawkeyes will cover the spread as a result. Iowa is 5-0 ATS over its last five at home when favored by fewer than three points, and I fully expect the Hawkeyes defense to step up big time while the offense does just enough.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Purdue vs Iowa spread and Over/Under analysis
Iowa is generally listed as a 2.5-point favorite at most books with the odd -2 and -3 available depending on the sportsbook. Recent history hasn't been kind to the Hawkeyes against the spread in games against Purdue as they are 2-3 straight up and 1-4 ATS over its past five against the Boilermakers.
The Boilermakers' 44 points against Illinois were the second most points scored by Purdue against a Big Ten opponent over the past decade. However, with Iowa's strong defense and the windy weather conditions affecting play, the total is set between 38.5 and 39 for the game.
Purdue vs Iowa betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 over their last five meetings. Find more college football betting trends for Purdue vs Iowa.
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Purdue vs Iowa game info
| Location: | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 7, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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Purdue vs Iowa weather
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