A massive SEC showdown takes place tonight as the Georgia Bulldogs host the Tennessee Volunteers.
Although the Bulldogs can't afford another loss after last week’s defeat to Mississippi, my Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions tell you why I think this spread is too big.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, November 16. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Sanford Stadium in Athens, with the game airing on ESPN.
Make sure to also check out our favorite Tennessee vs. Georgia props before placing your bets!
Tennessee vs Georgia prediction and best bet
Who will win?
Let’s just go for it. Tennessee is going to win this game. Their defensive front seven led by James Pearce might be the best in the country and will cause enough pressure to force Carson Beck into more mistakes.
While teams like Alabama and Mississippi have given Tennessee the blueprint to beat this Georgia defense. It involves a balance of run and pass with a quarterback who can escape pressure and extend plays. Nico Iamaleava can do just that.
If Tennessee can take care of the football this game will come down to the wire. Give me the Vols.
My best bet
Tennessee +9.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
I don’t care what anyone says. I don’t think the Georgia Bulldogs get into the College Football Playoff with three losses. Which is exactly where they will be if they can’t beat the Tennessee Volunteers this weekend.
The Bulldogs are coming off a demoralizing 28-10 loss to the Mississippi Rebels last week. Simply put, Georgia’s offense looks broken.
Mississippi limited the Bulldogs to 59 rushing yards on 33 carries while limiting Carson Beck to 186 passing yards and picking him off once. Beck has now thrown more interceptions (12) in SEC play than touchdowns (10).
Georgia struggled with Florida who was down to its third-string quarterback for far too long. And hell, even the win against Texas wasn’t great. The Longhorns held them to just 4.0 yards per play and the difference in the game ended up being four Texas turnovers.
So, all this has me thinking, why can’t Tennessee cause the exact same problems that Mississippi and Texas did?
This Volunteers team has one of the best defensive front sevens in the country led by potential Top 10 pick James Pearce Jr. They enter this game ranked first in the country in success rate and second in opponent EPA per play.
Now, there are questions concerning the availability of quarterback Nico Iamaleava who has been dealing with a concussion he suffered in the Volunteers game against Mississippi State. But reports out of Knoxville is that he will be good to go.
Either way, I would expect a heavy dose of running back Dylan Sampson in this one, and the key for Nico will be not turning over the ball. He has already proven he can make sound decisions in the win over Alabama. If he can limit the turnovers, there is no reason to think this game won’t be close.
I believe Tennessee is a live underdog in this matchup, but I’ll happily take the 9.5 points for this best bet.
Tennessee vs Georgia same-game parlay (SGP)
Tennessee +9.5
Under 24.5 First-Half Total
Nico Iamaleava Over 18.5 rushing yards
For a lot of the reasons listed above, I am leaning toward this being a low-scoring game. Tennessee leads the country in defensive success rate, and Georgia is 13th. Tennessee allows 12.6 points per game, Georgia allows 18.4.
And as noted, Carson Beck and Georgia’s offense has struggled against elite defenses. Tennessee certainly falls in that category. Kirby Smart knows, this. His gameplan will be deliberate early on. Expect a good mixture of run and pass from the Bulldogs, even if running back Trevor Etienne is out.
Meanwhile, the Vols will try to suck the life out of the crowd in Athens with Dylan Sampson in the run game, with hopes of opening things up through the air later on. With that in mind let’s add the first half Under to this same-game parlay.
Another thing Georgia has struggled with recently has been mobile quarterbacks. Jaxson Dart rushed eight times for 50 yards last week. DJ Lagway had 18 yards in a quarter and a half before leaving the game with an injury. While Jalen Milroe rumbled for 117 yards in the Bama game.
Running hasn’t been a huge part of Nico’s game but he still has 215 yards on the season and can move when he needs to. His rushing yard prop is sitting at 18.5. He’s gone over that number in four of his last eight games and two of his last three.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Tennessee vs Georgia odds
Tennessee vs Georgia live odds
Tennessee vs Georgia opening odds
- Tennessee vs. Georgia spread: Georgia -9
- Tennessee vs. Georgia moneyline: Tennessee +280, Georgia -360
- Tennessee vs. Georgia Over/Under: 49.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Tennessee vs Georgia spread and Over/Under analysis
- Georgia opened this game as 9-point home favorites and that spread grew to as much as 10.5 before Tennessee brought the number back down to 9.5 as of Friday afternoon.
- To me this spread is giving too much respect to the decal on Georgia's helmet as opposed to the product on the field. Carson Beck has struggled and is arguably going against the top defense in the country. If Tennessee can limit the turnovers, this game should be closer than this number.
- The total hit the board at 49.5 and has been steadily bet down to 47.
- Both defenses will have the advantage in this matchup while both teams will try to establish the run. That has me thinking Under on the first-half and full-game totals.
- 64% of Covers Consensus users are backing Tennessee on the spread, while 55% are taking the Over.
Tennessee vs Georgia betting trend to know
Tennessee has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games for +5.80 Units and a 44% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Tennessee vs Georgia.
Tennessee vs Georgia game info
| Location: | Sanford Stadium, Athens, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, 11-16, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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