As much as Tennessee Volunteers head coach Josh Heupel is usually known for his offense, the Playoff contenders are driven by their defense these days. Going against the always-driven-by-their-defense Georgia Bulldogs, any free college football picks have to expect a low-scoring game in Athens.
My Tennessee vs. Georgia player props expect most offensive players to struggle, providing value in some college football picks before kickoff at 7:30 ET on Saturday, November 16.
Tennessee vs Georgia props for Week 12
Dylan Sampson anytime touchdown (-135 at BetMGM)
Carson Beck Under 263.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Dominic Lovett Under 48.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 11-15.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Tennessee vs Georgia college football player props
Prop bet #1: Dylan Sampson anytime touchdown
Usually, BetMGM steers clear of someone as likely to score as Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson. The King of Sportsbooks will simply leave someone off the anytime touchdown menu. And there was an expectation that Sampson would get that treatment.
Instead, he is somehow underpriced. Massively underpriced.
Sampson has scored at least once in every game this year, totaling 20 rushing touchdowns. In nine games, he has crossed the goal line just once in only two of them. In six SEC games, he has notched 11 touchdowns.
Sure, Georgia has one of the best defenses in the country, but opponents still employ a balanced run-pass split against them. That includes when needing to find the end zone: Opponents have thrown for nine touchdowns against the Bulldogs while rushing for seven.
Sampson should make that at least eight.
Prop bet #2: Carson Beck Under 263.5 passing yards
Carson Beck has eclipsed this prop in four of nine games this season. In SEC play, it has been exactly every other game, at which rate this week would be one in which he cashes this Over.
But Beck has thrown at least one interception in each of his last four games and five of six SEC games for 12 total and nine in the last four games. The one-time Heisman contender is giving the Georgia Bulldogs’ coaching staff plenty of reasons to not trust him. They should not put the ball in the air so much, certainly not against a Tennessee defense with six interceptions in the last four games.
The Volunteers have the No. 2 defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap, the kind of defense that could turn Beck into an outright liability.
To protect against that, expect Georgia head coach Kirby Smart to revert to his preferred lifestyle, a slowed game where he trusts his defensive front to eventually gift him a short field, at which point a few smashmouth runs can put the Bulldogs into scoring territory.
Beck has created a need to take the ball out of his hands, just as it was in the last two games that Georgia was a favorite of less than two touchdowns or an underdog.
Prop bet #3: Dominic Lovett Under 48.5 receiving yards
If doubting Beck to rack up the passing yards, it is not much of a logical leap to also doubt Georgia receiver Dominic Lovett’s receiving yards. Beck’s struggles have cost him some production, as well.
Lovett has cleared this prop in just two of his last five games, most notably catching only four passes in each of the Bulldogs’ last three remotely competitive games. Georgia is straying from the passing game, with a bounty of reason.
Tennessee opponents run the ball 6.9% more often than the average team would in a given game state, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com, the eighth-highest rate in the country. Throwing against the Vols usually goes that badly, in some part because the Tennessee defensive front is that dynamic.
Lovett will not get many chances on Saturday night.
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