Texas vs Houston Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Brooks Conquers Overmatched Cougars

This game may not look too hot on paper, but there are boosters across the great state of Texas who have a lot invested in this contest, literally. It’s been a down year for Houston, and Dana Holgorsen remains on the hot seat despite a Hail Mary win over his former program in West Virginia last week.

Unfortunately for the Cougars faithful they’re playing a Longhorns team looking to take some anger out after losing to arch-rival Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry the last time they took the field. With an explosive offense led by a rising star at running back, Houston’s lackluster defense should be in for a long afternoon as underdogs in the college football odds.

Find out where my best bets lie in our free college football picks and predictions for Texas vs. Houston on Saturday, October 21.

Texas vs Houston best odds

Texas vs Houston picks and predictions

It hasn’t been smooth sailing for Houston since making the leap to the Big 12 this season. They’re 1-2 in conference — and the combined record of the three teams they’ve played is 11-9 — and only beat the Mountaineers on the last play of the game.

Now things are getting serious with some of their toughest games coming in the second half of the season, beginning with their biggest and baddest opponent in No. 8 Texas.

Despite the loss to the Sooners two weeks ago, Texas has been one of the most impressive teams in the country from top to bottom. They have a star quarterback, a plethora of playmakers, and a loaded front seven.

Heading into the season, the biggest concern was the loss of running backs Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson to the NFL, but lo and behold, Jonathon Brooks has emerged as Steve Sarkisian’s bell cow and one of the best running backs in the country.

The former blue-chip recruit is well on his way to being a top back in the 2024 NFL Draft after rushing for 726 yards (ninth most in the country) and seven scores in six games. After a slow start in his first two games — 155 yards from scrimmage and two TDs — he’s taken his game to another level over the past four games with 692 yards from scrimmage and six TDs.

A complete back with the contact balance to break tackles and the burst to hit home runs, Brooks has the opportunity to end up in the end zone a handful of times against a Cougars defense that’s struggled to stop the run.

With the way Houston defensive coordinator Doug Belk’s unit has played this season, he might be Holgorsen’s sacrificial lamb if things don’t get turned around quickly. The Cougars are 111th in EPA per play on defense and 107th in EPA per rush.

They’ve been particularly bad when it comes to giving up rushing touchdowns with teams scoring an average of 2.2 per game to just 1.7 passing touchdowns against them. On the season, Houston has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns, tied for seventh-most in the Power Five.

In their three Big 12 games this season, Houston has given up eight rushing touchdowns and they haven’t played a back nearly as talented as Brooks yet. Heading into their bye last week, Brooks led the Power Five in forced missed tackles (37) and was second in the Power Five in yards after initial contact (460).

Sarkisian knows he’s got a superstar in the making that he can lean on when the going gets tough too.

“He sat behind two guys (Robinson and Johnson) and really paid attention and listened and learned,” said Steve Sarkisian about Brooks. “His style of play has grown as the season has gone on. He’s a physical runner. We know we can count on him at the most difficult moments and that he’s going to come through.”

My best bet: Jonathon Brooks 2+ Touchdowns (-125 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Texas vs Houston same-game parlay

Jonathon Brooks 2+ TDs

Jonathon Brooks 1Q TD

Texas -23.5

+425 at bet365

It’s been the Brooks show the last few weeks and with the redshirt sophomore looking like the next great back to dawn the burnt orange, he’s in great position to break one early to the house.

Slow starts have been an issue for Houston’s defense, they’ve allowed nine first quarter touchdowns in just six games with five of them coming on the ground, and they haven’t seen an offensive line as mean as what Texas is bringing to TDECU Stadium Saturday.

An early Brooks touchdown will set Texas up for a day of beating up on a lesser little brother of a team. Offensively, Texas is 21st in EPA per play with matchups across the board to take advantage of both on the ground and through the air.

The Cougars won’t be able to keep up either, they’re 77th in EPA per play and taking on one of the best defenses in the country. The Longhorns sit 14th in EPA per play on defense, 15th in EPA per pass, and 30th in EPA per rush.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Texas vs Houston spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened with Texas as 22.5-point favorites and have slightly shifted in the Longhorns’ favor up to -23.5.

Texas is 3-3 against the spread with a +2.8 point differential. They’ve failed to cover both times they’ve been favored by more than 30 and in their loss to Oklahoma. They’ve covered in each of their other Big 12 games, both of which were double-digit spreads.

Houston is also even ATS at 3-3. They’ve gone 2-2 as underdogs this year and haven’t been more than nine-point dogs to this point. They’re 1-2 ATS in the Big 12.

The total opened at 61.5 at most books and has hovered around there, give or take half a point.

The Longhorns have struggled to hit the Over this season going 2-4. They’ve only hit it against Oklahoma and Alabama, and haven’t gone Over anytime they’ve been favored by double digits.

As for Houston, with their defensive struggles, they’ve been a trustworthy Over team at 4-2. This is their second-highest total of the season and they’re 0-2 in games with a total above 52. 

Texas vs Houston betting trend to know

Houston has hit the Game Total Over in eight of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs Houston.

Texas vs Houston game info

Texas vs Houston latest injuries

Texas vs Houston weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic