Oklahoma looks to end its Red River Rivalry losing streak at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC) against Texas.
The No. 1 Longhorns are a 7.5-point favorite, and my Texas vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks expect Steve Sarkisian's defense to shut down the Sooners yet again on Oct. 10.
TOP PICK
Who will win Texas vs Oklahoma: Texas -7.5
Recent Texas vs. Oklahoma rivalry history has been unkind to the Sooners, and I would take the Longhorns to cover as many as 9.5 points this year.
Texas has beaten Oklahoma in three of Brent Venables' four Red River Rivalry games by an average of 32.3 points.
In those three wins, the Longhorns held the Sooners to fewer than seven points, thanks to dominant defensive performances. This year's Texas defense might be the best one yet, ranking No. 3 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 11 in success rate (36.5%), and No. 16 in havoc rate (20.6%).
Oklahoma's offense could struggle to put up double digits against Texas. The Sooners are averaging 12.3 points per game in their last three games and rank last in the SEC in offensive success rate (39.2%), largely due to John Mateer's poor play.
Last year against Texas, Mateer was as bad as it gets (three interceptions, six turnover-worthy plays, 34.6 QBR).
COVERS INTEL: The Sooners haven't scored a touchdown in three of their four Red River Rivalry games under Venables, and this year's offense is arguably the worst he's had at Oklahoma. It ranks 112th in available yards percentage (37.4%), and Mateer ranks in the Top 10 in turnover-worthy play rate (6%).
Texas vs Oklahoma Over/Under pick: Under 39.5
Texas and Oklahoma are 6-2 to the Under combined and have hit it in three of the last four Red River Rivalry games. When the Sooners' offense doesn't score, the Under tends to hit at the Cotton Bowl, and this year's OU offense doesn't score (I like the Under at 37.5 or better).
Oklahoma put up just 258 yards on Texas last year, and the Longhorns' defense is better this time around. It's ranked No. 5 by SP+ and has allowed more than 17 points once. That was to Ohio State and Heisman Trophy odds-favorite Jeremiah Smith, and it allowed just three points in the second half to the Buckeyes.
However, it's not just Oklahoma's offense that has struggled. Texas is averaging 22 ppg against Power Four opponents, and Oklahoma's defense is still feisty. The Sooners are 12th in the country in havoc rate (21.6%), and Arch Manning has just one TD pass vs. two interceptions in P4 games.
Texas vs Oklahoma combo
The Red River Rivalry has been uncompetitive in three of Venables' four seasons in Norman. Oklahoma has a massive offensive problem, and there's no reason to believe this year will be any different.
Mateer ranks 69th nationally in QBR (56.7) and has posted a 58.9 QBR or worse in three straight matchups, leading the Sooners to fewer than 300 total yards in each.
OU's offense likely won't have its left tackle and is down one of its top receivers (Trell Harris) against a Texas defense that's allowing just 271 yards per game. However, the Sooners should slow Texas' offense down too.
I have Texas winning Red River 24-13.
Texas vs Oklahoma combo
- Texas -7.5
- Under 39.5
- First half total Under 19.5
- Top picks: 12-8, +2.86 units
- Combos: 5-15, -0.84 units
Texas vs Oklahoma odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Texas -7.5 | Oklahoma +7.5
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 (49%) | Under 39.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Texas 74% | Oklahoma 26%
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Texas vs Oklahoma weather
Weather at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas is expected to have no impact on this year's Red River Rivalry.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Texas vs Oklahoma trend to know
The Under is 11-1 in Oklahoma's last 12 games following a bye week. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs. Oklahoma.
How to watch Texas vs Oklahoma
| Location | Cotton Bowl, Dallas, Texas |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 10, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Texas vs Oklahoma latest injuries
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