The Big 12 race took some better shape last week but is still wide open at the top. The 8-1 Texas Longhorns look to avoid an upset and stay in the Top 2 as they head to Fort Worth to take on the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Longhorns held on late to defeat the Kansas State Wildcats last week with their backup quarterback. The Horned Frogs have lost four of their last five games and are down to their backup QB. Will the Longhorns keep their Big 12 title dreams alive and cover in the college football odds this week?
Find out in my free college football picks for Texas vs. TCU at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, TX on November 11.
Texas vs TCU best odds
Texas vs TCU picks and predictions
The TCU Horned Frogs won a rock fight over the Texas Longhorns, 17-10, on their way to a CFP berth last season. However, this is nowhere near the same TCU team as last year. Not only is it 4-5, but its opponent’s combined FBS record thus far is a mediocre 35-33.
Quarterback Chandler Morris was having a solid year but has missed a few games with an injury, and he'll likely be on the sidelines again this week. Josh Hoover has taken over and has seven touchdowns and seven interceptions in his stint. That has led TCU to be ranked 115th in the country with a -6.0 turnover margin.
For Texas, it has been without star QB Quinn Ewers for two consecutive games with a shoulder sprain. Despite a typical four-to-six-week timetable for that injury, Ewers has been upgraded to ready to start come Saturday. His return comes just in time for a run to a Big 12 title and a possible College Football Playoff berth.
The Longhorns rank second in the nation in third-down percentage defense, allowing opponents to convert only 26.4% of their attempts. They also rank 10th in rushing yards allowed at 90.3 per contest. On top of that, when opponents do reach the red zone, they have only allowed eight touchdowns and nine field goals in 26 attempts. The Horned Frogs rank 124th in RZ offense with only 19 TDs and six FG in 36 attempts.
Regardless of whether we see the pre-injury version of Ewers here or not, I love the Texas defense to shut down the TCU offense enough to cover this spread. The Longhorns will not let the Horned Frogs derail their hopes to make the CFP and will take care of business.
My best bet: Texas -11.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Texas vs TCU same-game parlay
Texas -13.5
TCU team total Under 16.5
With not a lot of player props available at the time of writing this, I'll keep it basic with our same game parlay.
I believe Texas wins this game by at least two touchdowns, so I'm taking the alternate spread of Texas -13.5 to help the odds a little here. TCU lost to Kansas State by 38 points just a few weeks ago and Texas just beat Kansas State last week.
The Longhorns only allow 17.6 points per game. Their RZ defense is great while TCU struggles to get anything going when it gets close. I'm also taking an alternate team total of Under 16.5 points for the Horned Frogs to complete this parlay.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Texas vs TCU spread and Over/Under analysis
Turnovers and special teams are also going to be a big part of this game in favor of Texas with the Longhorns being 38th in the country in turnover margin (+3). Texas has blocked both a kick and a punt this season and has two TDs from punts (one return and one blocked). TCU has allowed three blocked kicks and one blocked punt already this season.
The total of 55 is pretty typical for a Big 12 game, but rightfully so considering the way these two teams can play. Since I like Texas to hold TCU to Under 17 points, it will be a little difficult for the Over to hit solely on the Longhorns offense.
Texas has scored 34.3 points per game this season and if it manages that on Saturday, it would require 20 points from TCU to hit the game total.
Texas vs TCU betting trend to know
TCU has failed to cover in three consecutive games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for Texas vs TCU.
Texas vs TCU game info
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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