The Cincinnati Bearcats look to stay perfect when they host the UCF Knights at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio at 12:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 15. These two have been the class of the American Athletic Conference lately, but it’s Cincinnati that has run the conference more recently.
Will UCF find a way to hang around against a Cincinnati team that has the College Football Playoff on its mind? Find out in our UCF vs. Cincinnati picks and predictions.
UCF vs Cincinnati odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Over is a popular play in this game, with a majority of bets coming in and the number moving from 56.0 to 56.5 on pretty much every book. The consensus also seems to be on Cincinnati, which has moved from a 20-point favorite to a 21.5-point favorite on some books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
UCF vs Cincinnati picks
Picks made on 10/15/2021 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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UCF vs Cincinnati game info
• Location: Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
UCF vs Cincinnati betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
UCF: Kalia Davis LB (Out), Jaylon Robinson WR (Questionable), Tatum Bethune LB (Questionable), Corey Thornton DB (Questionable), Ricky Barber DL (Questionable), Dionte Marks WR (Questionable), Isaiah Bowser RB (Questionable), Dillon Gabriel QB (Out), R.J. Harvey RB (Out)
Cincinnati: None
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Cincinnati is 7-0 against the spread in its last seven games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for UCF vs. Cincinnati.
UCF vs Cincinnati predictions
UCF -21.0 (-110)
There was a point in time at which this matchup was viewed as a gamechanger in both the conference and national pictures, but this season hasn’t really gone the way it was supposed to for the Knights. UCF lost starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel on the final play of the game against the Louisville Cardinals on September 17, and the team hasn’t quite been the same since. The Knights have failed to cover in four of their last five games now, and they suffered a brutal loss to the Navy Midshipmen as 15-point favorites two weeks ago. Heading into a matchup with a Cincinnati team that has looked like an absolute juggernaut, it’s hard to be confident that this won’t turn into a lopsided affair.
Over the last three weeks, the Knights are allowing an average of 226.7 rushing yards per game. If that was their number over the course of the entire season, it’d be the sixth-worst mark in the nation. That’s bad news when considering that the Bearcats are averaging 173.4 yards per game on the ground this season. Cincinnati running back Jerome Ford will be licking his chops heading into this matchup, as he’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry on the season. He should be able to completely decimate this defense on the ground, and quarterback Desmond Ridder will help him do it. Ridder is one of the best running quarterbacks in college football, and his size makes him tough to bring down. But don’t get it twisted, he’ll also make all of the throws, too.
Defensively, only the Georgia Bulldogs are giving up fewer points than Cincinnati this season. The Bearcats allow just 12.2 points per game and they now get a Knights team that desperately misses Gabriel. Freshman Mikey Keene isn’t as good of a rusher or passer as Gabriel, and that really has forced UCF to shrink its playbook. Look for Cincinnati to be aggressive in getting to the quarterback and jump routes to create turnovers.
Under 56.5 (-110)
UCF is coming off a 20-point performance against the East Carolina Pirates, which shows you the current state of this Knights offense. This is no longer the explosive group that scored at least 35 points in each of its first three games. UCF is searching for an identity with Gabriel no longer under center, and it’s going to be hard for this team to score a lot of points against an elite Cincinnati defense. The Bearcats have given up 14 or fewer points in four of their five games this season.
As for the Bearcats, it should be expected that they’ll score at least 30 points in this game. However, with the way they play defense, that would leave Under bettors in good shape. Also, under head coach Luke Fickell, the Under is 9-1 in Cincinnati games in which the total is between 56.5 and 63 points.
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