There’s plenty of upset potential in Week 7 of the college football season. Not only do we have six games featuring Top-25 matchups, but three ranked teams will hit the road to face off against unranked conference opposition.
However, one of those ranked road teams is an underdog, and one of our best plays of the weekend for an upset special. We break down that game, as well as two more with terrific potential for underdog betting value, in our college football upset picks for Week 7.
College football upset picks for Week 7
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Kansas (+260) at Oklahoma
The absence of star Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels may not be as big of a concern as it originally was, thanks in part to the performance off the bench from Jason Bean in their defeat last weekend to TCU. The backup came in and completed 16 of 24 passes for 262 yards and four touchdowns, and nearly led them to an upset win over the Horned Frogs.
Now he will lead the 19th-ranked Jayhawks on the road in Norman against a reeling Oklahoma team that has some fans already calling for the job of head coach Brent Venables. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel missed last week’s game against rival Texas, in which they were annihilated 49-0. They’ve lost three straight games after being ranked sixth in the country.
While Gabriel’s return this week should help offensively, it will not make much difference on the other side of the ball. Oklahoma’s defense has allowed 145 combined points over the last three games, and seems incapable of stopping anybody. The Sooners are allowing opponents to complete nearly 64% of their throws, and they rank in the 100s in yards per carry, rushing yards allowed per game, and total defense per game. Making matters worse, they’re allowing opposing offenses to convert on almost 45% of their third-down attempts.
While Bean isn’t the runner that Daniels is, the Jayhawks should still be able to lean on a ground game that averages nearly seven yards per attempt. They’re also converting 52.5% of their third downs this season, the ninth-best percentage in college football. They don’t throw a lot, but they protect the quarterback and average better than nine yards per pass attempt. They’re also taking care of the ball, averaging less than one turnover per contest.
Bean may be the backup, but he’s not inexperienced. He started 10 games for Kansas a year ago, and his teammates have confidence in him after his performance last week. Kansas may not get the win, but the Jayhawks will take advantage of Oklahoma’s sloppy tackling and poor technique and put up more than enough points to make things very uncomfortable for the Sooners. Take Kansas to cover, marking the sixth time in seven meetings that the underdog has achieved that feat.
PICK: Kansas +9 (-107)
Maryland at Indiana (+350)
Maryland has been impressive this season. Its two defeats this season have been close, a two-point loss to Purdue last weekend and a seven-point defeat to Michigan in the Big House in which it lost starting quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa to injury.
The Terps have put up solid numbers on offense this season, with their 6.9 yards per play on offense the ninth-best mark in the country. They’re converting when they get inside the red zone, and they’re running the ball exceptionally well at 5.2 yards per attempt.
What they’re not doing well is playing clean football. Maryland’s defense ranks 93rd in the country in third-down success, and their 8.3 penalties per game are costing them over 71 yards on average — both among the worst marks in college football.
Indiana’s not an overly impressive team defensively, but the one area where it’s done well is stopping teams once they get into the red zone. The Hoosiers’ “bend but don’t break” mindset has worked to a point, allowing the 16th-lowest opponent success rate inside the 20. They’re also putting up decent passing numbers with an average of 280 passing yards per game, although their completion percentage is quite low.
Maryland’s defense could be just the solution to that problem, however, as they’re rarely getting to the quarterback, don’t force many turnovers through the air, and are allowing 270 passing yards per game. Indiana has done well through the air when it’s been able to give Connor Bazelak time to throw, and that shouldn’t be an issue in this game.
Indiana has lost three games in a row, but two of those were on the road, and the other, last weekend, was against a Michigan team that didn’t pull away until the fourth quarter, with the game being tied at halftime. While the Terrapins runs the ball well, they don’t have the line that Michigan does, nor are they as disciplined.
The home team has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings between these two programs. Indiana should follow that trend as they keep this game very close right to the end, in large part thanks to the sloppy play of the Terps.
PICK: Indiana +11.5 (-105)
LSU (+120) at Florida
Saturday will see the Tigers and Gators square off for the 67th time in 70 years. For a long stretch of my life, it was must-see television for college football fans, and a game that usually had massive implications for who would win the SEC.
While it should be an entertaining game, Florida’s play this season takes quite a bit of luster off the matchup. Despite sitting at 4-2 on the season, they’ve yet to put together an impressive performance. Their four wins include just one victory over a Power 5 program, a seven-point win over Missouri a week ago. They barely snuck past South Florida, and have lost to both of the good SEC teams they've faced so far.
Their two biggest problems this season have been injuries and throwing the ball. Florida’s secondary is extremely thin, and cornerback Devin Moore is out for this game. That’s a huge problem given he’s been one of their few bright spots on the back half of defense that is allowing 7.8 yards per pass and more than 64% of passes against to be completed.
Making matters worse for Florida is the status of right guard O’Cyrus Torrence, who is questionable for the game Saturday. An All-SEC preseason first-team selection, Torrence is key to their ground game, which averages six yards per carry and 202.4 rushing yards per game.
LSU is solid against the run this season, and it’s doing a good job of getting to the quarterback. Torrence’s absence could spell a long day for the Gators on offense, especially if they force quarterback Anthony Richardson to have to win the game with his arm. LSU has done a good job of getting to the quarterback all season, and its defense is allowing just 219 yards per game through the air.
Richardson has one of the worst completion percentages in college football, and his one outstanding game came in a loss to Tennessee. While he threw for more than 400 yards in that loss, it’s important to note that the Volunteers are allowing more than 307 passing yards per game — and even then, Richardson completed just 24 of his 44 attempts.
This game should play out similar to their loss to Kentucky, another defense that performs well against the run. Much like Kentucky, LSU has the speed on the edge to keep Richardson from escaping the pocket and making plays with his legs. The Wildcats held Florida to just 136 yards on the ground, and Richardson was unable to make the plays in the pocket needed to win.
Jayden Daniels should be able to bounce back from his defeat to Tennessee last weekend and find success against Florida’s secondary. I’ll take the better quarterback and the healthier team in this one. Take LSU to not only cover the spread, but to win the game — the third straight year they will have beaten the Gators outright as underdogs.
PICK: LSU moneyline (+120)
