Back-to-back 2-1 weeks on our upset picks have us rolling in the right direction, as we split our outright upsets last weekend while nailing our spread cover. We’re back scouring the college football odds this week as October winds down and teams begin jostling for position as we enter the final month of the regular season.
This week’s slate of underdog plays features a pair of home dogs in close matchups, and a rivalry with a decent spread. Here are the three games most ripe for underdog winners as we jump into our Week 9 college football upset picks!
College football upset picks for Week 9
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Oklahoma at Iowa State (+106)
We start this week with a pair of games in the Big 12 conference. Oklahoma ended a three-game skid last week when it knocked off a Kansas team missing starting quarterback Jalon Daniels, as they scored three unanswered touchdowns to take a 21-point lead in the second quarter and never looked back. Dillon Gabriel played for the first time since the TCU loss and threw for 403 yards in the win.
Iowa State, meanwhile, comes into this contest having lost four straight games, all in conference play, and three of which came against ranked foes. All four have been by no more than a touchdown, with the last three coming by a combined seven points. However, the Cyclones have done quite well against the spread. They lost 24-21 to Texas last week, for example, in a game that saw the Longhorns favored by 16 points.
The Cyclones can’t blame their defense for their losses of late. They’ve held both Kansas State and Kansas to 14 or fewer points, and held Baylor well below its season average in scoring. Last week, they held Texas, a team that was averaging nearly 38 points coming into the game, to just 24. They’re allowing the sixth-fewest points per contest in the country and holding teams to less than 300 yards.
If there’s ever a team against which to get your offense clicking, it’s Oklahoma. Despite their opponents averaging just 33 pass attempts per game, the Sooners rank 75th in passing yards allowed, 90th in passing completion percentage, and 68th in yards allowed per attempt.
Enter Iowa State quarterback Hunter Dekkers, who threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Longhorns. While Iowa State is one of the worst rushing teams in the nation, the passing attack can gain yards in chunks. Receiver Xavier Hutchinson has already caught 67 passes for 758 yards and will be a nightmare for a Sooners secondary that has already allowed 68 completions of 10 or more yards.
Oklahoma has covered the spread just once in its last six games. And while the Sooners have lost just once in the last nine meetings with Iowa State, they’ve covered just twice in the last seven. They’ve also gone 1-4-1 ATS in the last six games away from Norman. Iowa State has won 12 of its last 15 at home, and the underdog in this series has covered in five of the last seven matchups. Make it six of eight as the Cyclones not only cover, but pull off the upset at home behind a strong defensive performance and an offensive resurgence.
PICK: Iowa State moneyline (+105)
Oklahoma State (+106) at Kansas State
As I wrote in my preview for this game, I love Oklahoma State to win this one outright — regardless of which quarterback Kansas State starts on Saturday. The Cowboys have not had the best defensive record this season, either in terms of points allowed or yards conceded. However, they thrive in two areas: getting off the field on third down, and getting into the opposing team’s backfield.
Kansas State has done a solid job of keeping teams out of its backfield this season, but that is in large part due to the scrambling and running ability of Adrian Martinez. The senior quarterback is questionable for this game, and even if he starts, he will be dealing with a leg injury.
Last week, Kansas State ran the ball 30 times for 165 yards while allowing just three tackles for loss and zero sacks. That was well below the 240 rushing yards per game it averaged coming into the contest, in large part due to going just three of nine on third down. That’s going to be an issue again this weekend against an Oklahoma State team that allows just one-fourth of third-down attempts to be converted.
If Kansas State isn’t able to dominate possession and keep Spencer Sanders off the field, it will be a long afternoon for the Wildcats. Oklahoma State’s passing attack is putting up more than 303 yards per game, and the Wildcats have been prone to giving up the long play this season. Max Duggan hit them for two touchdowns of more than 50 yards last week, and they rank near the bottom of the nation with five 50+ passes given up this season. While the Cowboys have yet to hit a 50-yard pass, their 10 completions of 40 or more yards is the fourth-most in college football.
Kansas State has thrived this season because it hasn’t turned the ball over, but that’s in large part to Martinez having yet to throw a pick. His backups threw two costly ones last week, and that ended up being the difference in the game. Oklahoma State will get into the backfield enough to cause a few drives to stall and it’ll likely be another costly turnover that sees the Wildcats fall for the second week in a row.
PICK: Oklahoma State moneyline (+106)
Fresno State vs San Diego State (+275 at BetRivers)
We round off our picks with an underdog facing a rival and getting quite a few points. Fresno State hosts San Diego State in the 61st battle for The Old Oil Can, and both teams come into the matchup winners of two straight. They’re also in a three-way tie atop the Mountain West division standings, so there is a lot on the line in this one.
Fresno State will enter the game without starting quarterback Jake Haener, barring a late surprise. Logan Fife will be in charge of the offense, and has thrown more picks this season (six) than touchdowns (two). That could be an issue, as pass defense is where the Aztecs thrive. They rank 24th in yards allowed per attempt, and have allowed just 216.5 passing yards per game despite ranking in the Top 25% in college football in pass attempts against.
Running back Jordan Mims had a solid game last week in Fresno’s rout of New Mexico, but had averaged just 3.2 yards per carry in his previous three games on 54 combined carries. He will need to have a strong game against a San Diego State defense that ranks 106th in the nation with 4.8 yards per carry allowed this season.
Even a strong game from Mims, however, might not be enough for the Bulldogs. Fresno State ranks 93rd in red zone offensive success, and Mims will likely face stacked boxes all game long as the Aztecs dare Fife to beat them.
San Diego State’s offense has been a new animal since firing offensive coordinator Jeff Hecklinski. Jeff Horton took over and converted defensive back Jalen Mayden to starting quarterback, and the junior has responded by throwing for 478 yards and a touchdown in two games, with zero turnovers, while adding 59 rushing yards and a score.
Only 12 teams call a higher percentage of run plays per game than San Diego State, and it’s carried the ball a combined 74 times the past two games. The Aztecs are likely to find success on the ground against a Bulldogs team allowing 4.5 yards per carry and 172.5 yards per game on the ground. If they can stay ahead of the chains, it would be a big boost towards improving San Diego State’s 129th-ranked third-down success rate.
Fresno State has been held to 20 or fewer points in four of their last five games, and now must try to put up points with a turnover-prone backup quarterback against a strong pass defense. For me, that makes it very difficult to cover a spread of more than a touchdown against a rival that can exploit the Bulldogs’ biggest weaknesses on defense.
San Diego State should be in this one until the end, with a chance to pull off the upset. That said, I’ll take the safer route on this one and go with the points, as I believe the Aztecs will easily cover in what should be a tight rivalry game.
PICK: San Diego State +9 (-110)
