Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers (2-1) look to build some momentum with a home non-conference matchup against the reeling UCLA Bruins (1-1).
The Tigers needed everything they had for a comeback 36-33 win over South Carolina a week ago, but my UCLA vs. LSU predictions think they’ll put themselves in a better position early for Week 4.
Read on for my Saturday, September 21 college football picks.
UCLA vs LSU prediction
My best bet
LSU first half -14 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s looking like a rough first year for Deshaun Foster. His UCLA Bruins struggled to a 16-13 win over Hawaii in Week 1 and then, after a bye, were utterly dominated 42-13 at home against Indiana in Week 3.
The Bruins aren’t good defensively, but at least they were able to hang their hat on having a strong interior defensive line. I use the past tense “were” because now that’s in flux after defensive tackle Keanu Williams was injured last week against Indiana, and star tackle Jay Toia — the best player on defense, and likely the whole team — missed two practices this week.
UCLA had a lot of attrition in the secondary from last year’s staunch unit and it’s shown. The Bruins rank 101st in EPA per pass and a dreadful 131st in passing success rate.
Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke torched them for 307 passing yards and four touchdowns. This year’s squad doesn’t have many disruptive edge players, so it can’t pressure the quarterback without sending extra men and leaving vulnerabilities in the back end.
The offense has been a mess, and quarterback Chase Garbers looks out of his element, posting a single big-time throw compared to five turnover-worthy passes, per PFF. The Bruins rank just 125th in success rate and cannot block (84th in pass-blocking grade per PFF), so they could be abused by the LSU Tigers’ disruptive defensive front and appear ill-equipped to take advantage of a faulty secondary.
LSU’s offense ranks 31st in success rate and should have no problem moving the ball. Garrett Nussmeier has completed 69.8% of his passes for 10 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
He looks like one of the best pure passers in the country and should have little difficulty finding Kyren Lacy and company. It doesn’t hurt that receiver Chris Hilton, a freak athlete oozing potential, is deemed probable after missing the first three games of the season.
Give me the Tigers to put things together at home against a down opponent. First-year UCLA offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s scheme will take a while for this team to master, and they’re all out of sorts — this is a fade team until further notice.
UCLA vs LSU same-game parlay (SGP)
LSU team total Over 39.5
Under 56.5
Nussmeier is the real deal at quarterback, and he should have all day to throw working behind an offensive line that ranks 19th in front-seven havoc and is widely viewed as one of the best pass-blocking groups in the nation. This is a nightmare scenario for UCLA, who has no known impact players at defensive end to create pressure and ranks just 131st in passing success rate.
Neither team will play with tempo, however — the Bruins rank 121st in plays per minute as one of the slowest offenses in the country, while LSU ranks 84th. If UCLA falls behind early in this game, as I expect, things could get ugly in a hurry. Hence the LSU bloodbath SGP angle.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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UCLA vs LSU odds
UCLA vs LSU live odds
UCLA vs LSU opening odds
- Spread: UCLA -22.5 (-110) | LSU -22.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UCLA +1,100 | LSU -2,500
- Over/Under: Over 56.5 (-110) | Under 56.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
UCLA vs LSU spread and Over/Under analysis
- UCLA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games. LSU, meanwhile, has won 11 straight games at Tiger Stadium.
- UCLA has cashed the Under in six of its last seven road games.
- Since UCLA is unable to run the ball effectively (124th in rushing success rate), it’s opted to air things out (ninth in passing success rate).
- The issue is that the Bruins have been terrible at that, too, checking in at 113th in EPA per pass and 114th in passing success rate. Unless LSU is doing a boatload of scoring (possible), it’s hard to envision the total points going too wild in this game.
UCLA vs LSU betting trend to know
LSU is 5-1 ATS in non-conference home games under Brian Kelly. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs LSU.
UCLA vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-21, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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