USC vs Oregon Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Fireworks Expected for Saturday Nightcap

Two high-octane offenses meet in Eugene this evening when the USC Trojans visit the Oregon Ducks in Week 11. 

Looking at college football odds, the Ducks have been bet up as high as -15.5 at some spots while the total is set at a lofty 73.5. 

The expectation is for the Ducks to keep rolling over a reeling USC team searching for answers and simply trying to avoid a total bottom-out situation. There are also expected to be tons of points scored, which is a reasonable assumption considering the makeup of both squads. 

Is this high total justified? I examine the respective forecasts for these offenses in this matchup and provide my full college football picks for USC vs. Oregon on November 11. 

USC vs Oregon best odds

USC vs Oregon picks and predictions

Make no mistake about it, these are two elite offenses. In fact, this matchup features the two top-scoring teams in the nation as the Oregon Ducks lead the way with 47.4 PPG, and the USC Trojans are right behind at 45.5. Does that mean that the total for this contest, elevated to 73.5, is high enough?

Oregon’s offense has been a thing of beauty and hasn’t skipped a beat under first-year offensive coordinator Will Stein. The former UTSA Road Runners coordinator has picked right up where Kenny Dillingham left off last year before departing to become the head coach of the Arizona State Sun Devils. 

It makes things easier on the coaching staff when you have a Heisman Trophy odds-contending quarterback with a whopping five years of experience. Bo Nix hasn’t used his legs quite as much this season (116 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns compared to 510 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns a year ago) but he’s stepped his game up as a passer with a career-best 9.0 yards per attempt and 78.1% completion percentage. 

He plays behind an elite offensive line that grades out as the top pass-blocking (88.9) unit in the country, per PFF. The big uglies have mauled their way to the second-most line yards nationally while ranking fourth in front-seven havoc allowed. They’ve protected Nix well and allowed running backs Bucky Irving (1,107 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns) and Jordan James (618 scrimmage yards, 10 touchdowns) to run wild. 

In case you live under a rock, I’m here to report that USC has struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball. Last week’s firing of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch came far too late as the damage has already been done — the Trojans are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation for a second straight year, and one of the sport's brightest talents of the last few years, Caleb Williams, will fall short of reaching the college football playoffs. 

The Trojans check in at 122nd in EPA per play and 104th in success rate defensively and will be gashed by an Oregon offense ranking second in EPA per play and first in success rate. Five of USC’s last six opponents have reached 40 points and the only one who didn’t is Utah, who has an inept offense this year and still managed 34 points and 482 total yards on 6.9 yards per play. 

On the flip side of things, the Grinch firing does nothing to change the fact that USC’s offense still has Williams under center and is one of the nation’s best, ranking fifth in EPA per play, 10th in success rate, and fourth in explosiveness. Oregon’s defensive numbers look good on paper (16 PPG allowed, 11th in EPA per play) but it's benefited from a remarkably soft schedule. In three games against what I’d consider competent opposition, the Ducks have surrendered 6.5 yards per play to Texas Tech, 6.8 yards per play to Washington, and 7 yards per play to Washington State. 

USC’s offense hits the "competent" qualifier as it scored more than 40 points in eight 10 games. On the flip side, Oregon holds an advantage everywhere when it has the ball and will be playing Autzen Stadium where it’s averaged 55.8 PPG this season. 

This total is high — but it’s not high enough. Give me the Over. 

My best bet: Over 73.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

USC vs Oregon same-game parlay

Over 73.5

Caleb Williams anytime TD

Bucky Irving first-half TD

30% boost available

+343 +445 at FanDuel

Here’s a three-leg SGP centered around there being a lot of scoring Saturday at Autzen. That’s the obvious answer so there aren’t many discounts in the market, but I also believe it’s the correct answer given that we have two elite offenses and one terrible defense. 

The first touchdown prop involves reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams to find the end zone at -130. He’s rushed for a touchdown in each of his last three games and in four of his last five. It’s become evident that he needs to shoulder an even larger share of the workload as this team’s wide receiving group isn’t quite what it was a year ago and he now has five straight games with double-digit rushing attempts after he failed to do so in any of his first five games of the year. 

The second touchdown prop is for Oregon running back Bucky Irving to score a first-half touchdown at -175. His anytime touchdown prop is a ridiculous -850, which is unplayable, but -175 is at least palatable in an SGP. He’s one of the nation’s best rock-toters and should go to work against a Trojans defense that has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns this season and 10 across its last two games alone. 

Lincoln Riley would lead you to believe that the defense is in for a revival sans Grinch, but that’s like putting a band-aid on a terminal illness. The Trojans are allowing 266 rushing yards per game across their last three contests and now a Ducks offense checking in at first in EPA per rush, second in rushing success rate, and sixth in rushing explosiveness. Bucky was absent from Tuesday’s practice but returned in full on Wednesday, so he should be ready to roll. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USC vs Oregon spread and Over/Under analysis

Look-ahead lines at the beginning of the season had this number as low as Oregon -2. That number is now up to between -14.5 and -15.5, depending on the book. The total is set at 73.5. 

This is a situation where you either try to ride the hot hand with Oregon, which is 8-1 ATS on the year, or try to catch the falling knife with USC, which is 2-8 ATS. 

It’s why I’m staying away from picking a side against the spread. This doesn’t seem like the time to jump on the train for either Oregon or USC (the fade train, that is) as bookmakers may have been slow to catch up but likely have by now. USC has a Top-5 offense and yet is being priced as over two-touchdown underdogs against an Oregon defense that allowed 495 total yards on seven yards per play at home against a much lesser Washington State offense earlier this season. 

It’s admittedly hard to trust the Trojans, however, as Riley has been coming across as in over his head in press conferences for at least a month now. This season has not gone according to plan and one has to question their motivation now that the preseason plans have been ripped to shreds. 

USC vs Oregon betting trend to know

The Trojans are 0-4 ATS on the road this season while the Ducks are 4-1 ATS at home. Find more college football betting trends for USC vs Oregon.

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