What sounds more like bowl season than the idea of UTEP and Fresno State meeting in a bowl sponsored by a state neither of which is from? Yet, the beauty of bowl season is that we’ll gladly tune into this meeting of a Conference USA upstart and a Mountain West power.
Here are our free college football picks and predictions for UTEP vs Fresno State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 18, with kickoff set for 2:15 p.m. ET.
UTEP vs Fresno State odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Fresno State was originally favored by 13.5 points, and that line opened a week after quarterback Jake Haener had initially entered his name into the transfer portal but before he eventually removed it. With Haener possibly still not playing in this bowl game, that spread dropped down to -11 or even -10.5 at some locations within 48 hours of its open. Last weekend it seemed to settle at -11.5.
The total opened at 52 and has settled at 51 after dropping as low as 49.5 last week.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
UTEP vs Fresno State predictions
- Prediction: Fresno State -11.5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 51 (-110)
- Best bet: Fresno State -11.5 (-110)
Predictions made on 12/14/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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UTEP vs Fresno State game info
• Location: Dreamstyle Stadium, Albuquerque, NM
• Date: Saturday, December 18, 2021
• Time: 2:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
UTEP vs Fresno State betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
UTEP: Justin Prince DB (Out), Walter Dawn WR (Out).
Fresno State: Vose Vavao OL (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Fresno State is 4-0 ATS in its four non-conference games in 2021. Find more NCAA betting trends for UTEP vs. Fresno State.
UTEP vs Fresno State picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
An underutilized adage in gambling is to “Sell on good news, buy on bad.” It is, in simpler terms, a reminder to generally fade the public. Those buildings in Las Vegas are big and shiny for a reason, after all, and it’s not because casinos regularly lose money.
Haener has returned to Fresno State — though he hardly actually left — but he may not play Saturday. As of this Monday, Bulldogs interim head coach Lee Marks would not name a starting quarterback.
This line opening below two touchdowns may be an overreaction to Haener stepping out and head coach Kalen DeBoer heading to Washington, hence Marks’ “interim” tag. If not for those items, Fresno State would be at least a 14.5-point favorite against UTEP, if not closer to -17, quite frankly.
Put simply, the Miners are vulnerable against the pass, giving up 6.7 yards per attempt, and the Bulldogs prefer to move the ball through the air, gaining 330.1 yards per game via the pass compared to only 133.5 on the ground.
With or without Haener, Fresno State’s offense should hum.
Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have a defense that did not get its proper due this season thanks to Haener’s heroics. Fresno State gives up only 20.3 points per game, a number relatively commiserate with UTEP’s average of 24.5 points per game through the season’s latter half.
Prediction: Fresno State -11.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
It is that trust in the Bulldogs’ defense that makes this a quick Under decision. Even as the Miners raced to a 6-1 record to open the season, they never scored with efficiency, games against New Mexico State and FCS-level Bethune-Cookman aside, and the reasoning behind that pair of exceptions should be self-explanatory.
In its 10 other games, UTEP averaged 23.4 points per game. It has never found an offensive rhythm in 2021.
The Fresno State defense will be a step up in competition compared to Conference USA.
Team total Over/Unders are not yet widely available, but this spread and total combination suggest the Miners’ should be about 20. At that number or at 20.5, a strong argument can be made to assume UTEP will not score three touchdowns.
Then it would take a vintage Haener game to crack this total, if he even plays.
Prediction: Under 51 (-110)
Best bet
One of these teams reached bowl eligibility by beating two teams from New Mexico, an FCS opponent, a team that did not play in 2020 and 4-8 Rice. The other did it with a win against a Pac 12 foe (not to mention another close loss) and wins against quality conference opposition.
Presuming Fresno State wants to play in this game, always a risk in bowl games, trusting the raw talent discrepancy should make this an enjoyable Saturday afternoon.
Pick: Fresno State -11.5 (-110)
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Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
